Projected Delivery Dates

Projected Delivery Dates

Based on announced 5000 unit production run* from June 2012 to December 2012 (avg. 833 per month): June/July for R & S reservations = first 1,666 cars; Aug rest of 230-300mi packs = 2,500 cars; Sept 160mi packs up to P 833; Oct 160mi packs up to P 1,666; Nov/Dec 160mi packs up to P 2500.

Of course the sequence numbers we all have are bogus since no one knows what the drop out rate will be at the time of delivery (it would be nice if they gave us an ETA delivery date now (based on real data) or did a “re-sequencing” of reservation numbers.

P.S. the fact that the larger packs got moved to the front of the line really burns me since I hold P 469 and this policy was not announced up-front. Still, I can’t wait …


Larry Chanin | August 31, 2011


Thanks for the response. Yes, much of what is discussed on this forum has a large dose of speculation. ;-)

So you don't think that the timing and wording of the Toyota press release wasn't specifically designed to moderate Elon's remarks?



michiganmodels | September 1, 2011

@Larry Chanin - No. I do not think the wording was specifically designed to moderate or temper Elon's remarks. If Elon was eluding to an agreement that would have a dramatic and immediate financial impact, it would require an SEC filing (re: 100 MM agreement). The Canadian manufacturing announcement does not meet this criteria. For this reasoning alone, Elon could not mention it publicly prior to a formal agreement and SEC filing. I believe (re: speculate) Tesla/Toyota will announce another agreement that has a relatively large number tied to it mid Q4. Why mid Q4? Beginning Q4 is the October 1st event and end of Q4 is the release of the Model X. It would conclude the year perfectly to 1) Show the Model S is production ready (Beta event) 2) Announce another Toyota agreement to, once again, demonstrate to Wall Street Tesla has multiple revenue streams and 3) introduce the Model X (demonstrate Tesla will have multiple product lines within 18 to 24 months).

And for 2012? 1) January 2012 - Reveal the Production Candidate at the NAIAS 2) Deliver the Model S to reservation holders. 3) Win 2012 Car of the Year.

Brad Holt | September 1, 2011

Looks like michiganmodels has it pretty much nailed down! Sounds like a pretty solid plan to me.

Larry Chanin | September 1, 2011


"Lets say Toyota wanted to convert an existing product line to 100% electric. For arguments sake, lets say Toyota wanted to make an EV Corrolla. Why not partner with a company that is an industry leader in EV power trains and why not manufacture the EV Corrolla at your former plant that produced 6,000 UNITS PER WEEK as recently as a year ago? That is one way to bring a relatively affordable EV to market. Is this speculation: Yes. However, that is one scenario that is an order of magnitude larger than 100 Million dollars."

I suppose any billion dollar deal would be tempting, but to you really think that it's in Elon's DNA to turn Tesla Motors into Tesla Automotive parts? ;-)


Soflauthor | September 1, 2011

@Larry wrote: I suppose any billion dollar deal would be tempting, but do you really think that it's in Elon's DNA to turn Tesla Motors into Tesla Automotive parts? ;-)

In the short term, Tesla and Elon have to think like a young public company -- drive revenue and become profitable, quickly. In addition, anything that Tesla does that broadens the market for EVs can only help Tesla. By helping Toyota make a more rapid entry into the EV market, Tesla indirectly legitimizes the market and only helps itself in the longer run.

@michiganmodels' scenario makes sense, but then again, that doesn't mean that the players will act sensibly.

michiganmodels | September 1, 2011

@Larry Chanin - Do you happen to work for GM or Ford? I'm kidding of course :-)

I asked because your question presupposes that manufacturing automotive parts and automobiles are mutually exclusive events. In fact, companies such as Toyota (and Apple Computer, again with hardware and software) believe it is essential to manufacture high-quality components in order to manufacture high quality end-user products. GM and Ford went so far as to spin off subsidiary companies: Delphi and Visteon (for many reasons, of course) to distance itself from its automotive components division. GM and Ford operate as if purchasing and installing the components are INDEPENDENT from the manufacturing process and do not effect the quality of the end-user product. I believe Elon Musk and Toyota share the belief that, in order, to build a high quality car, you need high quality components.

How do we know this? Lets go back to the TAL story (I have other sources, but this is most direct):

Specifically, read (or listen to) Frank Langfitt and Ernie Schaefer's quotes at the 38:00 mark:
"The team concept stressed continuous improvement. If the team got a shipment of parts that didn't fit, they were supposed to alert their bosses, who would then go to suppliers and engineers to fix the problem. All the departments in the company worked together.

You had asked the question earlier, what's different when you walk into the NUMMI plant? Well, you can see a lot of things different. But the one thing you don't see is the system that supports the NUMMI plant. I don't think, at that time, anybody understood the large nature of this system.

General Motors was a kind of throw it over the wall organization. Each department, we were very compartmentalized, and you design that vehicle, and you'd throw it over the wall to the manufacturing guys."

Tesla and Toyota are already developing this "system." For example, the Roadster had HVAC challenges/problems. Tesla is now addressing this with the HVAC system from the Toyota Prius. Is Toyota an automotive parts company for doing this? Of course not.

Toyota needs Tesla and Tesla needs Toyota. Toyota needs Tesla (and Panasonic) for the technology, parts, and processes missing when it originally failed with the RAV4. Tesla needs Toyota for its automotive manufacturing know-how (and capital, of course :-) ). Toyota will not sit idle if Tesla has an HVAC (or any other manufacturing/component) issue because Toyota does not want to "throw the problem over the wall." Stated differently, Toyota does not want to experience any problems when it manufactures its EV RAV4 (and future EV vehicles).

Ultimately this partnership is to develop high-quality, no-compromise EVs, which is Tesla and Elon's mission. To answer your question: I do not know if it's in "Elon's DNA." but, I do know this partnership and approach is consistent with Tesla's mission and Elon Musk's comments of producing high-quality products.

I apologize for any typos. I pounded this out on my iPhone :-)

Brad Holt | September 1, 2011

All that on your iPhone? By that alone I'm impressed.

I just know the more I think about these things, the more excited I get about what kinds of shiny new information might be announced on October 1st!

Larry Chanin | September 1, 2011



Thanks for your impressive and helpful response.

"@Larry Chanin - Do you happen to work for GM or Ford? I'm kidding of course :-)

I asked because your question presupposes that manufacturing automotive parts and automobiles are mutually exclusive events."

I know you are kidding, but since I am new to this forum perhaps I should relieve your curiousity a bit regarding whether I have an agenda. Like you I am a Tesla enthusiast (albeit not as knowledgeable) and have provided a deposit to reserve a Model S. My wife an I will be traveling to Fremont and our tour and ride reservation is on Sunday. If you plan on attending we would very much like to meet you. Feel free to contact me directly at

Returning to my innocent question, no I don't presuppose that manufacturing automotive parts and automobiles are mutually exclusive for mature enterprises. It just seemed to me that if a fledging company such as Tesla started off with a billion dollar contract to furnish parts to Toyota, then by the shear disproportionate weight of that transaction and focus it would de facto become an automotive parts supplier rather than an automobile company.

As you know, many of Tesla's detractors continue to express the opinion that Tesla's only hope of viability is to be bought out by one of the automotive giants and supply parts. In my view that would be a terrible waste of talent and vision. Likewise, if Tesla were to become seduced into diluting its focus away from designing and building ground-breaking electric cars, that would be a shame. Should Tesla continue to pursue collaborations and supply parts? Sure, as you point out that is a necessary approach for a new company, but my only point is the need to maintain a prudent balance recognizing that designing building cars needs to remain their primary mission, at least in the near term.

Thanks again for sharing your knowledge.

By the way, I think that you may have me confused with another forum member, since I never asked "what's different when you walk into the NUMMI plant."


Larry Chanin | September 1, 2011


Please disregard my last sentence above, I now see that you were quoting from a reference.


michiganmodels | September 1, 2011

@Larry - I was 100% kidding. And I was 100% poking fun at GM and Ford. I try not to be sarcastic or snarky (and never criticize other members); it's too difficult to discern.

I'm very encouraged that there are reservation holders such as yourself (re: those that jumped in before learning every waking detail). In all honesty, the production capbailities and product mean nothing without the demand.

As far as October 1st, I would love to meet all of you. However, I am extraordinarily disappointed that I can not attend. I'm in an Executive Masters Program at the University of Michigan. The program is for working executives, which requires on-campus "weekends" every six weeks. And my next on-campus session is when? You guessed it: September 29th through October 2nd in Ann Arbor. I thought it would be unbelievably cool to meet everyone (it's probably the only time that could happen). Anyway, maybe I can Skype with someone there :-)

JoeFee | September 1, 2011

Larry did you mean test drive on Sat Oct 1 not Sunday 10/2?

Larry Chanin | September 1, 2011


"Larry did you mean test drive on Sat Oct 1 not Sunday 10/2?"

Hi Joe,

No, I meant Sunday October 2nd.

The response to Tesla's invitations was much greater than they expected and they added a second day. To minimize impacting out-of-towners who had already made airline and hotel reservations for October 1st Tesla for the most part has confirmed reservations for Californians for Sunday and non-locals for Saturday. My wife and I had a schedule conflict for Saturday and Tesla accommodated us by confirming our reservation for Sunday.


Larry Chanin | September 1, 2011


"@Larry - I was 100% kidding. And I was 100% poking fun at GM and Ford. I try not to be sarcastic or snarky (and never criticize other members); it's too difficult to discern."

True, its very difficult to discern humor from sarcasism on these forums.

I'm pleased that Ford and GM appear to be succeeding since I have yet to purchase a foreign car. However, I must admit to a love / hate relationship with GM that dates back to their corporate cannibalism of the EV-1.

I'm sorry you can't make it to Fremont, but if you're ever in the Sarasota, Florida area you have my email address, look me up.


vouteb | September 5, 2011

I am UK based and on 'My Tesla' it says:SIGNATURE MODEL S #13

what could that mean as approx. delivery date?

Brian H | September 5, 2011

Sometime before Jan. 1, 2015.


vouteb | September 6, 2011

Great, will 'new' specs by then!


Robert.Boston | September 8, 2011

@vouteb: If you were a US S holder, that would likely mean late Q2 2012, based on some postings in this thread lately. Unclear how long it will take them to adapt that to the particular reqs in GB.

Soflauthor | September 8, 2011

I propose that we conduct a "release date" contest. We all guess an actual release date for the first production Model S to a paying customer (i.e., not Elon or any members of the Board or a major investor). I suppose that would be to Model S sig series customer #1.

I realize that we have very little information to go on, but whatever. As the dates are guessed, we'll see whether there's any consensus.

Cut-off date for your guess is the earlier of the day before Tesla makes any official announcement or 1 Jan 2012.

Here goes: Given the complexities of getting a production line operational along with product roll-out logistics, I think 2Q12 is not likely. My guess: July 25, 2012

Schlermie | September 8, 2011

July 1, 2012

Trnsl8r | September 8, 2011

August 30, 2012

Brad Holt | September 8, 2011


Klaus | September 8, 2011

June 27, 2012

TJK | September 9, 2011

I'll be optimistic: April 15, 2012

David M. | September 9, 2011

I'll make my guess on a date after I see the Fremont factory on Oct 1. Is there a cutoff date for these guesses?

Soflauthor | September 9, 2011

@DavidM: Since I started this, I suppose I can define the rules :)

As I stated in an earlier post:

Cut-off is the day before Tesla makes a formal announcement about the delivery date for the Models S or 1 January 2012, whichever is earlier.

breading | September 9, 2011

Of course it will be April 1st (Fools Day), 2012

VolkerP | September 9, 2011

My bet is July 4th, 2012. Obviously, already an important date.
Hope to still receive my EU lhd general production before end of 2012.

BruceR | September 9, 2011

April 7th, 2012 for S#1 delivery to customer....

My logic (read SWAG) for the progression on production:
Average Monthly Agregate Allocation
Daily Rate Total Production
April 5 150 150 Signature
May 5 150 300 Signature
June 10 300 600 Signature
July 10 300 900 R300
August 20 600 1500 P300
Sept 20 600 2100 P300
October 30 900 3000 R/P230
Nov 30 900 3900 P230
Dec 40 1200 5100 P160

2012 Total = 5100

And finally hitting the average of 50/day necessary to make 20,000 cars a year in Jan 2013.

mcornwell | September 9, 2011

July 18, 2012

JoeFee | September 9, 2011

I'll say June 8th.

Hope to see some of you on Oct 1st. Yahoooooo…. my drive time is 5pm !!!!

Nicu | September 10, 2011

I wanted to take April 1, 2012 but I was not "allowed" to post for at least three times, so the spot is now taken. So I'll take a risk in being the most bullish, and say March 15, 2012.

Ad van der Meer | September 10, 2011

I'll go for June 15th.

Brian H | September 10, 2011

Your post contains two egregious errors:
s/b "fledgling" and "sheer". ;) ;p

Basically I think Toyoda of Toyota is too smart to turn Tesla into a subsidiary. That would be killing the goose to get the golden egg, a known failing strategy. I suspect Daimler, fresh from its debacle with Crysler, is equally loathe to attempt to absorb a company with an alien culture and problems.


Kallisman | September 10, 2011

June 19th 2012 here. Just cos it's my birthday.

petersv | September 10, 2011

I'll say June 1st, simply because it's my birthday! :)

Soflauthor | September 10, 2011

We don't have enough "date contest" entries to draw any conclusions about consensus yet, but here are the 14 guesses to-date presented as a simple chart (I hope this graphics post works:)

Timo | September 10, 2011

Because it is supposed to be "early 2012" I say April 15. That leaves enough time for Beta-testing before actual release.

Brian H | September 10, 2011

I notice in the June 2011 prospectus/update that no mention is made of Roadster Two, the in-house version. I wonder when a determination about that will occur. My impression was that it would see the light of day around 2014.

Brian H | September 10, 2011

And I'll guess April 14, just to beat Timo to the launch. ;P


William13 | September 11, 2011

I think BruceR has the basics. I however think the first will be delivered on May 31st with a ramp up have as slow as BruceR projects. :(

William13 | September 11, 2011

I meant half as fast.

Bgu | September 11, 2011

Went to the Milan store last week, nice sales rep, offered us a drive on the roadster Sport through center Milan :-)

He told us as to latest info the European delivery will not be before March 2013, first all 5000 us productions have to be deliverd and they want to be sure to have these running (close to the factory) for a long enough time before shipping arround the globe.
So once 5000 deliverd they are going to use the production of the 20000 and divide that world wide (including new US general production)
I'm afraid we are in for quite a wait :-(

On the upper side, I'm still hoping the local rep was not that well informed and will hope to get more info on october 1st!

My estimate: August 21st

Discoducky | September 12, 2011

I want to say CES Jan 10th is my overly optimistic guess for first Signature delivery, but most likely they'll bring a Beta for public drooling.

Then my next guess would be tax day, April 15th since most states don't charge for tax on an EV purchase and it lines up with the stated 5000 forecast for 2012.

FYI, there is a Daimler keynote at CES this year:

Food for thought on what CES is turning into for the auto world.

Leofingal | September 12, 2011

My guess is May 10th

Soflauthor | September 13, 2011

Only 18 guesses to date. Too few (keep 'em coming) to draw conclusions about the predictive ability of crowds, but FYI, here's a summary:

Note that the median date (half of all guesses above, half below) is currently June 17, 2012

JoeFee | September 13, 2011

Getting back to the start of this thread, here is my update for first deliveries in the USA:

S/R = 6/8/12 through July
300 pack = Aug
230 pack = 11/15
160 pack = maybe 12/28 but good chance of moving into early 2013

Delete Me Knapp | September 13, 2011

I hope I'm being a pessimist, but July 30, 2012.

wan888 | September 13, 2011

I've got my allocation number but not sure if this is a worldwide or regional allocation.

cablechewer | September 13, 2011

At some point a Tesla rep told me the estimate was that signatures would go to Canada about 3 months after the first were delivered in the US. They mentioned August, but I don't know if they meant it for US or Canadian deliveries. Being an optimist I am hoping for mid-august 2012 for delivery of a Canadian Signature series car. Call it august 15th if you like. 3 months earlier would have signatures shipping around May 15th in the US.

Do I win anything if either guess is closest? :D

VolkerP | September 14, 2011


yes, I hereby invite the victorious better to a test ride in an EU general production Model S in spring of 2013. Free accommodation. Plus free L2 charging if you bring your EV. Plus frenzy +200kph driving on a no-speed-limit stretch of German Autobahn near my home :-).

So everybody get a go and give soflauthor a shot!