Projected Delivery Dates

Projected Delivery Dates

Based on announced 5000 unit production run* from June 2012 to December 2012 (avg. 833 per month): June/July for R & S reservations = first 1,666 cars; Aug rest of 230-300mi packs = 2,500 cars; Sept 160mi packs up to P 833; Oct 160mi packs up to P 1,666; Nov/Dec 160mi packs up to P 2500.

Of course the sequence numbers we all have are bogus since no one knows what the drop out rate will be at the time of delivery (it would be nice if they gave us an ETA delivery date now (based on real data) or did a “re-sequencing” of reservation numbers.

P.S. the fact that the larger packs got moved to the front of the line really burns me since I hold P 469 and this policy was not announced up-front. Still, I can’t wait …


Brian H | June 6, 2012

Closing in! 15s Wild:

Soflauthor | June 6, 2012

@Joef -- The real winner is Steve Jurvetsen, who now has his hands on a real live Model S!

I think it was decided that deliveries to board members and other insiders were not to be considered and that a a delivery to an actual customer was required. Therefore, in my very limited capacity as score/records keeper :) I rule that the June 22 remains the winning date.

However, FYI, the posters closest to 1 June 12 were @petersv and @Vawlkus who both guessed 1 June 12. Congrats.

JoeFee | June 6, 2012

@Soflauthor Well you can't blame a guy for trying …. yes, we are all winners once we get behind our Model S !

Volker.Berlin | June 7, 2012

As a side note, and to complicate things a little, I seem to remember Elon mentioning that even he himself and the other big shots have to pay the regular price for their Model Ses. Not that it would make any difference to those guys... But technically, I guess that qualifies them as customers! ;-)

Brian H | June 7, 2012

Yeah; Jurvetson got his #1 position by writing a $40,000 check in the board meeting when plans to build the S were first confirmed and handing it to Elon ...

Brant | June 7, 2012

I heard he paid in full for the anticipated price of the Sig at that time

Brian H | June 7, 2012

Yeah, that could be. $70K? Anyhow, he wanted #1, whatever it was going to cost!

Brian H | June 13, 2012

Number nine, number nine ...

psirnes | June 13, 2012

got an email 11/09/12 from Ina Roren, EU inside Sales Adviser, UK, I asked her about possible EU delivery in 2012
"We are still looking at Signature Delivery in the beginning of 2013. There will be price info and cars for the showrooms in Europe in the autumn " (she did not mention test drives).As a Sig holder I could expect a configuration mail in Q4
Per Anton, Norway Sig#52

Volker.Berlin | June 13, 2012

psirnes, "11/09/12" would be Sept. 12th, 2011? Just to make sure, since everything else doesn't make sense to me. In that case, your information is way old, and there's hoping that Tesla might end up before their own (official) schedule again, just as with US deliveries. Of course, that would require that the US deliveries go as smooth and flawless as everybody hopes. We will only know a few months from now. But if the ramp up proceeds without major hick-ups, it may turn out that there is some wiggle room in the statement from your Sales Advisor...

psirnes | June 13, 2012

sorry misse on the keybord menat June 11th

psirnes | June 13, 2012

just to clarify, got the email from her two days ago

JoeFee | June 20, 2012

In case anybody is interested ... new thread on TMC

Volker.Berlin | June 22, 2012

Tesla is now making just one Model S a day as it focuses on quality control and gives meticulous attention to everything from the sound pouring out of the stereo system speakers to the gloss of the paint. Production volume is scheduled to slowly ramp up in coming months, and is expected to hit 80 to 100 cars a day by the end of the year.

Brian H | June 22, 2012

Making the very artificial assumptions of a 5-day work week, with 26 weeks left, gives 130 work days; a linear growth of daily production means an average of ((100+80)/2 + 1)/2 >= 45/day x 130 days = 5,850 cars.

By similar logic, between now and the end of Sept, with 65 work days at ~23/day => 1,495 total cars by then, which should cover all the Founders, R, and SSL production pretty much. So 5,850 - 1,495 = 4,355 P cars, mostly Performance versions, will be made after Sept., by end 2012.

If all goes moderately well ...

BryanW | June 22, 2012

@Brian H - why do you say "mostly Performance versions, will be made after Sept., by end 2012."?

Will selecting a non-Performance version delay delivery? I haven't seen that anywhere.

Brian H | June 22, 2012

Well, just basing it on the priorities, 85kwh batteries and so on first. Since it seems those are running about 50% of reservations, they will get most of the allocated output early on, though not all of it. Suppose this summer another 8,000 reservations are made, with 50% being Performance and 85kWh. Those 4,000 Bigs will tend to squeeze out at least some of the 2012 Mid and Small deliveries currently penciled in.

BryanW | June 22, 2012

@Brian H - Again, I am not sure what you are basing this on. Has Tesla made an official statement that they will produce all current reservations for 85kwh cars for current P reservation holders prior to starting production of the 60kwh and 40kwh cars?

That's not how I read it at all. The design studio says that 60kwh cars will go into production in November, and 40kwh cars will go into production in December. So, if I am a low P reservation, and I reserve a 60kwh car, I would expect November delivery regardless of how many reservations holders numbers 2000-10,000 want a Performance or base 85kwh Model.

Also, why do you think the majority will be Performance, it's my understanding that the 85kwh base and Performance Models are being produced simultaneously and without delays?

Brian H | June 22, 2012

That's why my wording was "priorities", a relative term. It's not a black-white lockstep process. But the more Bigs on the books by summer's end, the less room in that 4k+ post-Sig production window for the Mids and Smalls. Maybe, if the production rate ramps up faster than the minimum targets set so far, more of an even blend will be possible by y/e.

jonathanclarkcom | February 27, 2013

Yesterday the iphone app showed my partial VIN for the first time (awesome) - I had been checking every day. Today I called Tesla to get the full VIN so I could get started on insurance. While on the phone, I asked if they had any updates on projected delivery time. He said, "let me check... It looks like your car is completed and is ready for pickup at the factory". Wow!

I haven't gotten any emails from Tesla's automated systems yet stating the car is done, or about making payment, etc. The last email I got from them was Feb 11 to confirm factory pickup - that email projected the pickup window of Mar 1-15. Weird - I thought I'd be contacted by them at least for payment by now. I plan to see what they'll give me for a trade-in, so they have to schedule an appraiser - I would guess that is why I haven't been contacted yet, but who knows.

I called Solar City to see if they could install my charger earlier, and they said they'll try but a number of orders are being delivered early and they are pretty booked (that might just be an excuse). So my car finished a few days before the projected date (though, I expect I won't get it until next week).

Starting to get excited :)

andycrews | February 27, 2013

Solar city must be pretty booked. They are having trouble getting my charging plug installed before the start of my delivery window (March 15).

R18322 Jan 15. Invitation to Finalize Feb 5, Test drive Feb 11, Finalize Feb 11, Delivery button Feb 26.

mcskks22 | February 27, 2013

Andycrews: Congrats on the delivery button. Cant wait to get mine. We finalized of Feb 12th so I am hoping its soon. Are you a 60 or 85kwh?