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Projected Delivery Dates

Projected Delivery Dates

Based on announced 5000 unit production run* from June 2012 to December 2012 (avg. 833 per month): June/July for R & S reservations = first 1,666 cars; Aug rest of 230-300mi packs = 2,500 cars; Sept 160mi packs up to P 833; Oct 160mi packs up to P 1,666; Nov/Dec 160mi packs up to P 2500.

Of course the sequence numbers we all have are bogus since no one knows what the drop out rate will be at the time of delivery (it would be nice if they gave us an ETA delivery date now (based on real data) or did a “re-sequencing” of reservation numbers.

P.S. the fact that the larger packs got moved to the front of the line really burns me since I hold P 469 and this policy was not announced up-front. Still, I can’t wait …

* http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2011/03/tesla-sets-price-production-plan...

Volker.Berlin | October 31, 2011

Given that Canadian deliveries don't start until 2013, including Sigs, I'd be very surprised if EU got theirs any faster than that.

And Switzerland isn't even EU... ;-)

clea | November 1, 2011

"Given that Canadian deliveries don't start until 2013, including Sigs, I'd be very surprised if EU got theirs any faster than that."

that would only be true if US deliveries didn't start until Oct 2012. It has been stated times that Canadian production starts 3 months after US production. Do you know something that would contradict this?

jbunn | November 1, 2011

Got an article today. Tesla sold out the 2012 production at 6,500 reservations. Very good news to be overbooked 11 months ahead.

Also sport model at 87,400 and the x unveiled by January... SYDFD AMMV

Vawlkus | November 2, 2011

I remember reading that Canadian deliveries would start in 2013, but I can't put my hands on a link to where I saw that.

clea | November 2, 2011

that might have been someone's prediction but anything official i have heard from Tesla has always stated that it would start three months after the start of US production. The North American FAQ has always stated this (http://www.teslamotors.com/en_CA/models/faq) and iirc has been reiterated a few times but the facts page does not specify anything about canadian start of production. I am going to assume that the 3 month delay still holds until told otherwise through some official channel (gotta believe ;~)

clea | November 2, 2011

sorry forgot the link to the facts page ...

http://www.teslamotors.com/en_CA/models/facts

joefee68 | November 2, 2011

From today's earnings report:

"Our confidence in the progress of both the Model S Beta phase and the Tesla Factory permits us to be more specific in our timing guidance for first customer deliveries. We are on plan to deliver the first Model S vehicles to customers no later than July 2012.
We also recently finalized a long term supply contract with Panasonic for cells used in the Model S, which gives us increased visibility into our variable costs. As a result, we continue to have confidence in our long term target gross margin of 25% for Model S upon realizing the manufacturing efficiencies associated with an annualized sales run rate of 20,000 units."

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1169219154x0x514425/7...

So May/June delivery of Sigs is not impossible and minimum 25% gross margin is more like a chip company than a car company !!!!

joefee68 | November 2, 2011

Conference call = no lease for 6 to 12 months .... no 160 packs until late 2012.

joefee68 | November 2, 2011

Conference Call con't = only few 100 Sigs left/only way to get a MS in 2012 ... wait list may extend through 2013 ... no advertising needed while "production constrained"

intent to sell fully loaded MS in 2012 ... price/package incentives e.g. longer battery warranty for 230/300 packs

Tesla will deploy "Supercharger Stations" capable of 30min 150mi fast recharge.

Robert.Boston | November 2, 2011

On the call, Musk said something quite close to: "I think we could ship cars sooner than July if we had lower standards, but we don’t want to rush to market. We want to make the car as perfect as possible."

So...I wouldn't look for greatly accelerated delivery. I'm still liking my June 29 prediction.

joefee68 | November 2, 2011

Yes, after that comment I take back my May comment but still hold to my June date!

jackhub | November 2, 2011

Interesting thoughts from Elon on conference call. He anticipates that most will take the 230 range option with the 160 and 300 being about equal. he anticipates 300 and 230 options will be produced during the first FIVE months.

Nicu | November 2, 2011

I think I will move my prediction too: 14 June.

Nicu | November 2, 2011

He also said that Model X will have the best 4WD out there. Maybe the two motors I'm dreaming about that will also percolate to the Model S (same platform) ? So we could break the 4s barrier - may I hope to get in the low 3s ?

michiganmodels | November 2, 2011

My prediction remains April 21st. I believe I will receive mine on my birthday :-)

Tesla loves to under promise and over deliver.

Also, I can't see Tesla delivering 1,000 cars per month from July-December.

Signatures will be delivered in Q2. Q1 will be dedicated to refining the Signatures to be perfect.

I speculate that the first 1,000 (signatures) will have little variation, thus easier to maintain the quality.

We'll see...

Volker.Berlin | November 3, 2011

He also said that Model X will have the best 4WD out there. (Nicu)

Nicu, can you help me locate that quote? The transcript is miserable (e.g., "data bills" for "beta builds"). I can guess a lot but I cannot see a reference to AWD. It's probably related to the fact that I am not as good at guessing elonmumbletalk as a native speaker... Thank you!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/304764-tesla-motors-ceo-discusses-q3-201...

Nicu | November 3, 2011

50:40 (audio still available for a few weeks I think)
"It's gonna have a particularly killer four wheel drive system, I think the best 4WD system in any car, period."

In that shitty transcript, the passage looks like that
"it’s going to have a particularly teller (inaudible) and we think forward the best flow of assets of any car variant and so that should cover us grew around the operating point and long-term its possible we could go into a wide range of variance, but that can shortly (inaudible)."

I'm not a native speaker either, but it's still better to listen to the conference than to read some stupid software transcript and base my investment on that :)

Volker.Berlin | November 3, 2011

Nicu, thank you for making the effort an citing the actual source. Seems that readers of that transcript miss a lot!

Maybe the two motors I'm dreaming about that will also percolate to the Model S (same platform) ? (Nicu)

I think that's not unlikely. A second motor is the obvious choice over the cardan shaft which would otherwise be required to distribute torque to all four wheels. The motor needs less space than the shaft (more precisely: can be placed in a location where it does not hurt cabin space, while a cardan shaft would have to pass through the cabin somehow) and probably does not even weigh more. If the engineering is done for the Model X, I'd hope they'd leverage that to offer an AWD option for the Model S as well.

Whether the second motor would affect max acceleration is a different question. From Tesla's comments on the Model S sport version I got the impression that it's not the motor that is the bottle neck for applying more torque, it's the battery. Even with two motors, both motors would still draw current from the same battery and total torque is probably limited by the maximum current the battery can deliver without destructing itself...

Volker.Berlin | November 3, 2011

More precisely: Battery cells as well as the PEM. Both must be able to support massive currents.

jackhub | November 3, 2011

Someplace in an interview of Musk, I believe he said the desiogn of the 'sport' model s required beefing up the system to handle 1200 amp instead of 900. I can't find where I read that.

Nicu | November 3, 2011

One of the problems for quick acceleration is traction. I think that up to a certain speed (30mph ?), the power and torque are more than what the wheels can transfer so everything gets limited electronically (I mean by software). As the weight is almost 50-50, you basically double traction going to 4WD.

I have computed once that if 400hp are transmitted with no loss (that is, no slippery wheels) and torque is plenty, Model S should be able to get to 60mph in about 2.5s. Obviously, there is no 100% in nature in anything, but I think traction is one of the bottlenecks. The other being torque. But with two motors (+ 2 PEMs ?) and four wheels, magical things can happen. With the right optimizations (better battery cells, 2 PEMs etc.) they could take Veyron's crown (for 0-60 time). That puppy could sell for $150k+ like hotcakes.

Robert.Boston | November 3, 2011
Volker.Berlin | November 3, 2011

That puppy could sell for $150k+ like hotcakes.

Not to me. But as a shareholder I'd be happy to see that happen! ;-)

Nicu | November 3, 2011

That would probably be a 50% gross margin car ;)
And customers will be more than delighted by the bargain they get :D

gjunky | November 3, 2011

I am worried about Elon's remark about producing the higher end cars, with the larger batteries and more options, first. I understand wanting to produce high margin vehicles but TM should not have assigned reservation numbers if they didn't plan to sell the cars in that order.

Following his statement, it would mean that once it is my turn to configure my car and I don't pick enough options (extras), I would be put (further) back in the queue.

Not cool.

michiganmodels | November 3, 2011

@gjunky - I see it both ways.

On one hand, it makes sense to produce as many "like" cars as possible. This is will help with quality, etc., etc. And given Tesla's financial position, it makes sense to begin with the high end.

On the other hand, you're right.

Volker.Berlin | November 3, 2011

I think internally at Tesla they regret that they started the whole reservation # thing. This is bound to produce some customer frustration. Realistically, it was clear early on that cars will not (necessarily) be delivered in order of reservation #, but as a customer of course you want to believe that the reservation # counts so Tesla is having a hard time convince you otherwise.

The reservation # still serves to disambiguate to customers that order similar cars -- the one with the lower # will get his first. But apart from that it's basically just the order in which they call you up to clarify your desired options and then put you in the queue "for real".

Similar with leasing: In the Q3 2011 earnings call Q&A Elon was quite explicit that they will not offer leasing from the first day. This to some extent contradicts Tesla's own website, where it says "A full suite of payment options including leasing and financing will be offered." (http://www.teslamotors.com/models/facts) The reason: The back log is long enough, they simply don't have to offer leasing in order to sell their cars. Very similar to advertising, which they will not spend any money on until the sell-rate is no longer production-bound (i.e. they can produce more than they can sell).

gjunky | November 3, 2011

@VB: I don't know why it was clear early on that they were not going to deliver in the order the orders were received, except of course the Signature series which they stated all along would be delivered first.

Volker.Berlin | November 3, 2011

@gjunky, because they were shifting around these numbers without hesitation. Some got their numbers "improved", presumable b/c numbers in front of them dropped out or switched to Signatures, but I for instance went from #1 (European P-list) to #3 without notification. When I asked, nobody could explain anything, but everybody reassured me that those number are not very important, anyway. Cold comfort.

And then there was this thread: http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/reservation-numbers-dont-mean-an...

Ok, that was started in March 2011, so it probably does not qualify as "early on".

Soflauthor | November 3, 2011

Since I'm the unofficial record keeper for delivery date estimates, I'm forced to make a ruling on revised estimates (for those who already made one and now want to revise it based on yesterday's investor letter and call). My ruling (which doesn't count for much :)—ya gotta stick with your first estimate for "contest" purposes.

Obviously, as more info surfaces, estimates will become better and better.

Therefore, folks who haven't yet posted an estimate are encouraged to do so. I realize that this approach is somewhat unfair, but I remind you of the old adage—no one ever said that life's fair :)

Here's a review of current estimates:

The average delivery date estimate is: June 9th
The median is: June 23rd.

michiganmodels | November 3, 2011

@Sofiauthor - administrative question: how do you embed graphs? I have some graphs for the Model S Tally thread, but I'm not familiar with the html tags.

TikiMan | November 3, 2011

My $0.02 cents...

It kind of makes sense that after the 'Signature Series' cars are sold off to the deposit holders (some of whom might drop out by next year, due to the questionable economy), that the fully-loaded 300 mile version would be released next.

Before I was looking at the Model S, I was looking at the Audi A7, and the first version of the ones that came out were primarily the fully loaded ones at the highest price.

If you think about it, the Model S is going to be like owning the first Iphone, in that a LOT of people are going to want to see it, ride in it, and ask owners about it (more than just about any car ever released sense the Ford Model-T). If the ones that are being shown are 'fully-loaded' versions, it's going to wet the appetite MORE for a possible future buyer, than being shown a base model with stock audio system and less features. It just makes better marketing sense to build the fully-loaded 300 mile version first, and the others later.

Plus I am hoping some of the lower number deposit holders wait for the base model, and drive my number closer to the front. Even better, I hope many I can get a “Signature Series” (but I am not banking on it).

Soflauthor | November 3, 2011

@Michiganmodels wrote: how do you embed graphs?

It's pretty straightforward.

1. convert the graph to a jpg file.
2. upload the file to a web site (in my case, my company site) and into an appropriate directory so that you can reference it using a standard URL. If you don't have your own website, there are also publicly accessible upload sites (e.g., www.freeimagehosting.net).
3. use the following html:

If you want to reproduce an updated graph in a subsequent post, be sure to name the jpg file differently or it will update earlier posts to the most recent jpg. I made that mistake earlier on :)

Brian H | November 3, 2011

@TikiMan;
makes sense. Except -- it's "whet" the appetite, as in sharpening a knife, not "wet", as in dousing with water. ;)

@Nicu;
that transcript excerpt reads like a finance guy was listening to car talk, and didn't know the words!

Soflauthor | November 3, 2011

@Michiganmodels:

Grrr. Sorry, the forum software deleted the key HTML line after point 3:

Let me try this:

(((img src="http://www.yourwebsitename.com/yourdirectoryname/graphname.jpg")))

If this works, replace the "(((" with a less than sign and the ")))" with a greater than sign.

Brian H | November 3, 2011

Soflauthor;
That's the general format for any image.

And it's possible to display the carets. Like this:
< CoDiNg HeRe >

The actual HTML I used was ampersand lt semi-colon and ampersand gt semi-colon
& lt ; & gt ; without spaces.

Brian H | November 3, 2011

@soflauthor & @michiganmodels;
Note that the image IP address must be a website; you can't "upload" to this forum, unfortunately.

michiganmodels | November 3, 2011

@Sofiauthor and @Brian H. - Thanks!

@Briann H - I agree with that. However, I do understand reservation holders who 1) received low numbers (and thus have been waiting 18 to 24+ months) and also 2) do not want a fully loaded model. It would be frustrating.

jackhub | November 3, 2011

@Robert.Boston. Thanks. Good link.

David70 | November 4, 2011

I basically see the reservation numbers as the order of option to buy.

P#1 U.S. is the first one to get to answer the question "Are you ready to confirm your order on the 300 mile range ModelS?"

Larry Chanin | November 4, 2011

@gjunky

"I am worried about Elon's remark about producing the higher end cars, with the larger batteries and more options, first. I understand wanting to produce high margin vehicles but TM should not have assigned reservation numbers if they didn't plan to sell the cars in that order.

Following his statement, it would mean that once it is my turn to configure my car and I don't pick enough options (extras), I would be put (further) back in the queue.

Not cool."

I sympathize with your points.

At first I thought that if I didn’t opt for a 300 mile range Model S there was a good chance that would never get my car in my lifetime. I figured that later reservation holders would continually jump in line ahead of me if they opted for the 300 mile range. Then I came across the transcript of the second quarter call-in questions. Here’s an excerpt:

“Elon Musk:
Well we've indicated that before yearend we would have the 230 mile in 2012.

Deepak Ahuja:
Yes, the Signature series, which is the first 1,000, will be the 300 mile range only, because it's kind of like the fully-loaded vehicle. And then thereafter, if you want the option of the 300 or the 230 mile, and at the very end of next year, sort of early December, it's when we'll be able to start making some of the 160 miles (technical difficulty)."

So the way I reconcile their recent statements to their prior statements is that while it is true there might be a higher priority placed on the larger battery pack options, they are still promising that some of the early non-300 range reservations will still be filled before year-end 2012, even some 160 mile reservations.

This may not be much solace to you, but it’s not as grim as I had initially thought.

Larry

ckessel | November 4, 2011

I always read it as that's just the production line they'd start first, simplifying on one battery size, then expanding out as they ramp up. I never read it as all 300's always jump up in the queue.

Larry Chanin | November 4, 2011

@ckessel

"I always read it as that's just the production line they'd start first, simplifying on one battery size, then expanding out as they ramp up. I never read it as all 300's always jump up in the queue."

You were undoubtedly correct. ;-)

Larry

Robert.Boston | November 4, 2011

In the Q3 call, they didn't even suggest an anti-230 bias, after the Signature run; only the 160-milers were singled out for delay. Nonetheless, I fully expect that they will keep the line exclusively producing 300-milers to satisfy the the 300-miler orders of those below some cutoff reservation number (e.g. P2000). Keep the production line simpler and the profit margin up.

cerjor | November 4, 2011

I was told that I would be contacted about three months before delivery asking which range and color, etc I would like. Have others reserved a particular range?

Robert.Boston | November 4, 2011

@cerjor: No, we're all in the same place, except those with a Signature reservation.

joefee68 | November 4, 2011

No news here .... 3 months before delivery to make optional decisions has been the original company line. Most 160 packs will be pushed back to 2013.

Norbert.Vienna | November 5, 2011

About deliveries to Europe a Tesla sales rep told me that the first Model S for presenting it to customers and test driving for reservation holders will be in Europe in September 2012

Brian H | November 6, 2011

RB;
about the production line, there's less concern about that with the totally robotized system. Completely different models can be interspersed.
Which makes me wonder if the next model Roadster could be mixed in! I'm sure the X will be no problem

joefee68 | November 8, 2011

re: "totally robotized system" also would imply that any battery pack can be added at any time as well (once TM cherry picks the fully loaded orders). Seems the path TM has chosen befits the share holders but should irk the feds who gave 1/2 B $ for a "mid priced" EV which will cost between 75K and 95K in 2012 (maybe well into 2013).

TM should reconsider the push back of 160 packs and allocate more than "a few" in December 2012. After all, the 160 pack P reservation holders put up their $5,000 too.

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