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still about 600,000 orders

still about 600,000 orders

$663 million in deposits, puts the 3 at about 600 million of that.

Wait til the next phase, wow.

Quinten | February 22, 2017

If that is true.... I placed my reserve very late. I wouldn't be able to get my until maybe early to mid 2019. Shoot.

HockeyEV | February 22, 2017

Hold out hope Quinten. Not sure where you live, but not sure if there is a figure out there of how many reservations are international and would (hopefully) be at the back of the line. Second, Maybe they can ramp up fast enough in second half of 2018 to clear the backlog. Crossing fingers, as I am pretty late reserver myself!

Quinten | February 22, 2017

@ HockeyEV. I live here in California but place my reserve last month. Hopefully you are right and it still wouldn't be that far away.

ga88352006 | February 22, 2017

Plus they are fulfilling orders from west coast first to east coast. I am in CO, hoping early 2018. Reserved last week.

KP in NPT | February 22, 2017

Sorry guys. I don't think it will be that soon. Just because you are geographically closer does not put you THAT far to the front of the line, given how late you ordered. JMHO. I don't even think people who ordered last summer who aren't current owners will see early 2018. I'm an owner who ordered on day 1 and will be happy to have my car then. (east coast.)

ravinderfotedar | February 22, 2017

How can I decode the reservation number?

JeffreyR | February 22, 2017

@ravinderfotedar not possible.
Several threads here on the subject:

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/lets-decode-model-3-reservation-nu...

Tool to help you search (with notes to do it w/o TFES):
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/tesla-forum-enhancement-suite-tfes...

jordanrichard | February 23, 2017

There is no rhyme or reason to the reservation number. The whole who is getting their car delivered first, is so convoluted, that no one will be able to figure it out. An early reservation number just means you get to configure your car earlier than the next person "in line". That doesn't mean you will get your car before that guy/gal. They said they will fill the fully optioned out orders first. Also, yes they said they will start on the West coast and work their way East. The problem there is at what point do they stop filling orders for the West coast? If they stuck strictly with filling fully optioned orders, they would never deliver cars any further east than the Nevada/CA border.

No one outside of Tesla knows that, so no one here is going to be able to even remotely guess when they will get their car.

Frank99 | February 23, 2017

Quinten -
I stood in line on March 31 to get my reservation in. Before I got to the store, I figured I'd get an early car probably in 2018; when I got to the store and saw 250 people in line already, I figured 2019 based on the production schedule that had been tweeted. That was OK by me then - although now I'm itching and anxious because I won't get one until likely the end of 2017.
mashable .com/2015/09/02/tesla-model-3-preorders-march-2016

andy.connor.e | February 23, 2017

Model X reservation price is 5x that of the Model 3. Deposit $ is not just Model 3 deposits.

topher | February 23, 2017

Tesla say Model X bought now will get May delivery, call it 2.5 months, at a production rate of 7,000 per week times 5,000 deposit is $35 Million. Still room for 600k Model 3 reservations.

Thank you kindly.

CyberGaut | February 23, 2017

Model S and X - $5k deposit...
Delivery delay on S and X is about 2 months...
Production last year was 90,000, call for 2017 is 50-60k for H1
Lets say current production is 5,000 so 2 months is 10k at $5,000 per is $50M.

So out of $663M deposits we can estimate that $50M is S/X and so there are about 613M deposits for Model 3 or about 613k reservation holders. Even if my estimates are off by a factor of 2 and there is $100M in S/X deposits that still leaves about 560K Model 3 reservations.

Real number is probably my est +/- 50% so call is $25-75M for S/X and 588-638k reservations.

That is a nice number for Tesla to be sitting on, and agrees with the opening post. I am OK with rounding 588 up to 600k for a base line estimate.

Glad I ordered day one, just too bad I didn't take the day to stand in line.

Haggy | February 23, 2017

Reservation numbers aren't serial. Even if they were, it would be like getting number 116 in a bakery while somebody else had 117 in a different bakery. It wouldn't mean you get served first. It would depend who else is in line at your bakery. There would be nothing useful in knowing your place in line because there isn't a place in line. The lines still need to be formed from the reservation list and Tesla isn't ready to do that yet.

Tesla doesn't publish a breakdown of customer deposits so there's no way of knowing what percentage is for Model 3.

There's quite a bit of room between low and high estimates, so knowing whether you are number 500,000 or 600,000 wouldn't mean much. 600,000 in one scenario might come sooner than 500,000 in a different one, so knowing that would have no bearing on when you can expect your car.

Tesla is saying "Production begins mid 2017. Delivery estimate for new reservations is mid 2018 or later." For new reservations, I'd speculate that it would be later, but if they miss 2018 it won't be by much. If you'd be willing to accept December 2018, then January 2019 isn't so bad. But Tesla isn't saying that. That would be when to expect it if they miss their goals.

Also keep in mind that it depends on where you live. Tesla might not start delivery to some countries right away. With the Model X, people thought the wait would still be going on now for people who ordered when it came to market. But that's not the case. Tesla started accepting domestic orders in the US within months of starting production, even though in other countries all you could do was get a reservation.

Efontana | February 23, 2017

I think more employees will get in line.

Quinten | February 23, 2017

HI.

Frank99 | February 24, 2017

I doubt employees reserving now will get priority over other people who've already reserved. I think the employee priority was handled by allowing employees to reserve before March 31. If you get hired today and reserve a Model 3, I'd guess that you get the same priority as anyone else reserving.

akgolf | February 24, 2017

I think if you're a new employee at the factory they may allow you to get it first just because they have another close beta tester. That doesn't bother me in the least.

Now if you're an employee in Chicago, that's a different story. You'll be waiting.

JHB10 | February 24, 2017

I think fully paid cars, not yet delivered might also be included in the deposits.
This would reduce the amount of deposits for model 3 significantly.

dsvick | February 24, 2017

"I think fully paid cars, not yet delivered might also be included in the deposits."

I don't think Tesla gets any money until the title is actually transferred. If they did that would mean that there are people out there that would be paying on a loan where they don't even have the vehicle yet.

yes_kay | February 24, 2017

RN is just a UID (unique id). Only Tesla knows what the true order/priority is for Model 3 reservations.

Haggy | February 24, 2017

When Tesla opened up reservations, most Tesla employees I spoke to fell into one of two categories. There were those who made reservations, and those who wanted to make reservations but either couldn't afford it or couldn't justify getting a new car. I would imagine that there must be some who simply wouldn't want a Tesla but the buzz around the company was amazing. Even if half the employees in the company ordered one, Tesla would get through the orders by early to mid September, which is the point where they hope to be at volume production.

If Tesla decided to hold off on cars for employees who couldn't afford a reservation or didn't work there back then, especially if one of the hiring benefits was getting priority, it might save a few weeks at most for everybody else. I don't think it would have a big impact.

"I don't think Tesla gets any money until the title is actually transferred. If they did that would mean that there are people out there that would be paying on a loan where they don't even have the vehicle yet."

Tesla gets money when you pick up your vehicle. Whether or not you make payments has nothing to do with it. My pickup for my Model S got delayed. I got the loan once I had the VIN. I had a check sitting there waiting to give to Tesla when I picked up my car. But in the mean time, I had to make payments.

dd.micsol | February 25, 2017

Not full orders from west to east.... jeez. That'll never ever happen! At most 15k at a time to each region.

dd.micsol | February 25, 2017

@haggy-they used to be. But since some loudmouth screamed I know my number by the page source of my order page-tesla encrypted it. How dumb was that poster.

Haggy | February 25, 2017

That's not quite true either because those numbers said nothing about where you were in the relevant queue for your region, or with respect to whether you're an owner or anything else. I'm in California. Orders were open for many time zones before mine. If I found out that I was number 40,000, how would that help? What if that's accurate but it's also the case that I'm number 5000 for my region and number 35 for owners in my region? What if number 1244 is in Australia and won't get the car until Tesla switches to RHD production after deploying in all US regions and then some other LHD countries? The sequence number still says nothing.

What if I'm number 50 in my region on the owner's list, and Tesla decides that since they are ordering enough parts for 4000 vehicles in July, they will open up orders to the first 4000 people on the list? If I don't configure my car within seconds of getting a notice, and I don't confirm my order right away, does that mean if I wait until a test drive and wait a week to confirm my order that I might end up 3000th on the list, while number 4000 could end up being number 56 if he configures right away? What if there's a hold up on a certain part and Tesla decides that they will make nothing but RWD cars for a week until they get it straightened out? When a person confirms an order, the system should give an approximate time frame for completion, and it can't depend on who orders over the next month.

I will get to order when I get to order, and I will get an estimate when I order, and I will get the car when it's ready. Since I waited in line in Fremont and am a current owner, I would think it wouldn't matter what my number is because if it's number one or number 3500, it wouldn't mean I'd get the car sooner one way or another.

Red Sage ca us | February 25, 2017

Haggy: +42! The Ultimate Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything about "What If Tesla Builds a Great Car and Sells It to You?"

dd.micsol | February 26, 2017

haggy-we are talking estimates not true dates!
I do know I'll be in the first batch to East Coast-now will that be in late 2018 or late 2017? God only knows when production really starts. We are trying to make educated guesses and bashing isn't called for for anyone trying to estimate it unless it is known to be absolutely not true -like all orders on west coast will be fulfilled first. That has been proven to not be true. It is also been stated that batches will be going out to reach region. What the size is or by what time frames is anyone's guess. I do see your point, but it doesn't call for bashing unless it has been known to be completely factually wrong. Let em guess. Let em estimate. I've waited since roadster came out for mdl 3 -another yr won't bother me.

topher | February 26, 2017

@dd:

Bashing wasn't done. Unless you consider disagreement 'bashing', in which case you are guilty of it as well.

Thank you kindly.

dd.micsol | February 26, 2017

I truly meant no offense either. I just happened to read with a little tone. my bad.

Sandy’s 3 | February 26, 2017

Sad

bj | February 26, 2017

A pre-delivery payment is not a deposit, it is revenue because at that point you are committing to purchase a car. Deposits are refundable hence not revenue and hence why they are treated differently in accounting terms and split out separately. That makes the rest of your ramblings rubbish as usual.

Ross1 | February 26, 2017

there is a separate bashing thread

jonathanbrown1265 | February 27, 2017

300000 deposits on model 3

PhillyGal | February 27, 2017

@jonathanbrown - There were more than that 11 months ago.
I think some have dropped off but many more have been added.

I actually think Tesla might be keeping it close to the vest precisely because it's so high. They may not want to spark demand that they can't meet in a reasonable time frame and thus don't want to announce numbers and get a ton more FOMO reservations. (fear of missing out)

Frank99 | February 27, 2017

The last announcement from Tesla on 4/15 placed the number of reservations at 373000. That was two weeks after the reveal. I'm sure the rate of reservations dropped significantly after April 1, but between April 15 and June 6, about 75,000 reservations (S+X+3) were made; at a 100,000 car / year build rate (and presumable reservation rate), that would imply that maybe 17,000 of those were for the S+X, leaving at least 60,000 more Model 3 reservations.

Haggy | February 27, 2017

To anybody who felt that "That's not quite true either" was bashing, I offer my sincerest apologies.

Linemanap | February 27, 2017

Reserved may6th in Colorado so if I get my car anytime in 2018 I'll be happy

Frank99 | February 27, 2017

Haggy, I thought you phrased your post well and presented the issues with the sequential reservation id quite well.

jaysonrich25 | February 27, 2017

When should I expect to see mine? Ordered Day 1 and live in the Bay Area.

bj | February 27, 2017

And Eagles is wrong. Again. Car payments are not counted as deposits but revenue, because the former is not refundable while the latter is. But Eagles doesn't care that he's wrong, he never ever admits that he's wrong even when done 100% cold. I mean, Eagles thought RHD and RWD were the same thing. Truly, that is the level we are dealing with here.

Frank99 | March 15, 2017

Resurrecting this thread with a new analysis:
https://www.fool com/investing/2017/03/14/teslas-model-3-reservation-count-likely-hasnt-chan.aspx?yptr=yahoo
indicating that Model 3 reservations have been holding more-or-less steady since Q2, if you assume that the backlog for Model S/X has been holding more-or-less steady.

andy.connor.e | March 15, 2017

^
Second to that, if its a $ amount for total deposits, does that also include the Solar Roof and/or powerwall 2?

JeffreyR | March 15, 2017

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/03/14/teslas-model-3-reservation-cou...

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/tip-posting-links

2016 Annual Report (Form 10-K)

--Note 12 - Customer Deposits
"As of December 31, 2016 and 2015, we held $663.9 million and $283.4 million in customer deposits. The increase is primarily due to Model 3 deposits."

"an increase in customer deposits of $388.4 million primarily as a result of Model 3 reservations"

minervo.florida | March 15, 2017

The 283 had much larger deposits for the early Model X, it is close to 600k model 3 orders. You will see..

mntlvr23 | March 15, 2017

you know, none of us really know the number or could even likely guess it within 20%, and it really doesn't matter.

Tesla has a crap-load of reservations, and when the cars start rolling off the line - the top is going to friggin' explode. BOOM !!!

Frank99 | March 15, 2017

I'm not sure we'll ever know the real number of reservations at any point in time. There's just no good reason for Tesla to ever announce it, other than maybe a retrospective 20 years from now.

mntlvr23 -
I'd give it a KA-BOOM!

minervo.florida | March 16, 2017

Ok last time.

663 million in deposits.
about 1900 total x and s sold per week, 1900 times 6 weeks of orders is 11,400, times $5000 deposit is $57 million, rest is model 3 deposits, so about 600,000.

dsvick | March 16, 2017

@Eagles - "The financial statement line item includes TS and TX deposits, pre-delivery payments."

What's a pre-delivery payment? Are you talking about a payment made on the car prior to it being delivered? Then that wouldn't be a "deposit" and they won't include that in the line item that refer to as "customer deposits". It would be reported as revenue since they actually sold a vehicle to get it.

andy.connor.e | March 16, 2017

Its for the $44,500 Model 3

Carl Thompson | March 16, 2017

dsvick:
"What's a pre-delivery payment? Are you talking about a payment made on the car prior to it being delivered? Then that wouldn't be a "deposit" and they won't include that in the line item that refer to as "customer deposits". It would be reported as revenue since they actually sold a vehicle to get it."

I don't think you can report revenue until the product is actually delivered to the customer.

Carl

dyefrog | March 16, 2017

Is that how it works with a Tesla? You pay in full before you take delivery? I thought the transaction would be simultaneous. You give me the check, I'll give you the key. That's a bit bothersome to me.

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