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still about 600,000 orders

still about 600,000 orders

$663 million in deposits, puts the 3 at about 600 million of that.

Wait til the next phase, wow.

Red Sage ca us | March 16, 2017

dyefrog: Just know that it can be a little harder to manage in some States versus others. I think you aren't allowed to give payment for a new car to an employee of Tesla in Utah, for instance. Your car would be Delivered to that State by a third party carrier, acting on consignment. But you would likely have done a wire transfer ahead of vehicle receipt. In other States people hand over a cashier's check at the Tesla Store or Service Center. In any case, Tesla would certainly prefer to be paid prior to delivery, but they will accommodate the needs and wishes of Customers. Except for the acceptance of copious amounts of cash, in small, unmarked, crumpled bills.

topher | March 16, 2017

"Except for the acceptance of copious amounts of cash, in small, unmarked, crumpled bills."

Legal Tender for all Debts Public and Private...

Thank you kindly.

dsvick | March 16, 2017

@carl - "I don't think you can report revenue until the product is actually delivered to the customer"

Possibly, but it still wouldn't be listed as a deposit.

Haggy | March 16, 2017

It doesn't much matter what the count is. But there are a few things to consider. One of Tesla's goals was to get reservations, have a second reveal, and double the reservation count as a result. 100,000 was considered very optimistic at the time. Tesla's new goal was to try to convert as many reservations as possible to Model 3 sales. They resurrected the Model S 60, keeping the 75D at the adjusted price that kept it on par with the original 60, making the new 60 a good discount. They did nothing to boost the reservation count because it would be counterproductive.

Saying that reservations dropped because of that would be misleading because it would make people think that reservation holders are backing out, even if they bought a Model S and generated more revenue. On the other hand, if it's really about 600,000, Tesla doesn't want to scare people into thinking that they will never get there. Either way, Tesla doesn't gain anything by disclosing a more specific number. The number of sales will be equal to their maximum production capacity no matter how long the list is.

Even if the count drops to 20,000, it would mean that Tesla's at the stage that somebody could go to a showroom, see the car, test drive it, and get it within five weeks. That alone will spur sales and keep a steady stream of orders coming in.

If we look at what was known about the car right after the reveal, and about the reservation count a week after that, everything since then has been positive. There are indications that the car will improve and none that anything will be taken away. There were no indications about what supercharging will cost, and it now seems likely that the average driver won't have to pay for it and it will be modest thereafter. Somebody whose reservation number might have been at 100,000 might have expected the car in 2019. Production was supposed to start in late 2017, meaning that it was likely that a few cars would trickle out by December, unless Tesla missed the deadline as so many people were predicting. Consumer Reports added the Model S back to the recommended list and said quality was improving. Given all that, it's not as if any news should be giving people second thoughts.

Badbot | March 16, 2017

623,288 reservations

Frank99 | March 16, 2017

Took a quick tour down memory road:
Feb 2014 - Announcement of the Gigafactory, and prediction that by 2020 "it should be churning out enough batteries for 500,000 Tesla vehicles annually"
https://www.forbes com/sites/markrogowsky/2014/02/26/tesla-5b-gigafactory-bombshell-500000-cars-by-2020/#4f7d0cc19830
July 2014 - the Model 3 "is expected to be revealed in 2016 for sale in 2017."
https://arstechnica com/cars/2014/07/model-3-will-be-tesla-motors-electric-car-for-the-masses/
May 2015 - the Model 3 "will be unveiled around March 2016 with production likely starting in late 2017"
https://arstechnica com/cars/2015/05/tesla-model-3-to-be-shown-in-march-2016/
March 31, 2016 - No need for a reference here
April 1, 2016 - "Higher-than-expected demand could mean that some customers making early reservations may not take delivery until 2019 or 2020, analysts said."
http://www.reuters com/article/us-tesla-model-idUSKCN0WY3JK
April 1, 2016 - Elon Musk - "Definitely going to need to rethink production planning..."
https://electrek co/2016/04/01/tesla-model-3-production-reservation/
May, 2016 - "the company aims to move its 2020 target to produce 500,000 vehicles a year to 2018."
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/04/holy-cow-tesla-moved-500000-cars-ye...

What's amazing amidst all the statements about how late all Tesla deliveries are, is how on-time this program has been from 2014 on.

EaglesPDX | March 16, 2017

As we see from the Tesla financial statement and notes, the deposits related to the T3 vs. deposits for TS and TX and pre-delivery payments for TS and TX show the likely T3 reservations to around 400,000..

Frank99 | March 16, 2017

Sounds healthy to me...

SamO | March 16, 2017

600,000 is like 400,000 only biglyer

EaglesPDX | March 16, 2017

400,000 is like 600,000 only more realistic.

Frank99 | March 16, 2017

In either case, it's a lot bigger than 952
http://gmauthority com/blog/gm/chevrolet/chevrolet-bolt-ev/chevrolet-bolt-ev-sales-numbers/

I sure am glad that GM is an experience car manufacturer with the ability to ship a new car in high volumes. It would be a pity if a revolutionary car like the Bolt were being built by a tiny startup who couldn't ramp production as fast as demand.

akgolf | March 16, 2017

@Frank - Maybe that is demand!

Red Sage ca us | March 16, 2017

I think Mary Barra has demanded that GM wait and see what happens to CARB, EPA, and NHTSA requirement rollbacks under the Trump Administration before offering BOLT at more than subsistence compliance car levels.

JayInJapan | March 16, 2017

I know there are 0 reservations for TS, TX and T3 since there is nothing with those designations at Tesla. I've heard, though, that there are a bazillion reservations for the Model 3. I can't wait. I'm all tingly with Teslarati goodness. My P85+ is by far the coolest thing I've ever seen, driven and experienced. Model 3 will be full of downright awesomeness. Ooops, I need to go drive now...

minervo.florida | March 17, 2017

EaglesPDX show me your numbers, I do not believe what you are saying.
You 400,000 assumes there have been almost no more orders since the launch, totally unrealistic.
I talk to the Product Specialists and they get model 3 reseravations everyweek.

dsvick | March 17, 2017

@Eagles - You still haven't told us what "pre-delivery payments" are and why they would be included in the line for deposits. Maybe if you actually responded to a question or counter argument like a grown up and not with a bunch FUD your posts wouldn't get deleted almost as soon as you make them.

andy.connor.e | March 17, 2017

Both your 600,000 guess, and Eagles' 400,000 guess are 100% incorrect. Because you dont know how many there are. He is not any more wrong than anyone else suggesting higher or lower than that number. Why are u bothering to argue over a number guess? You dont know any better than anyone else. You can back up what you're saying using an educated guessing system based on available information, but everyone is incorrect unless you literally heard it from tesla.

Stop being so salty.

minervo.florida | March 17, 2017

Whaaat.

Elon stated that deposits are $663 million. That is ONLY deposits. This is very simple, S and X sell about 1900 cars per week combined, and lead time is about 6 weeks, so about 11,400 cars. When cars are done they go to delivery and the deposit comes off books. Take that 11,400 cars at $5000 deposit and that is about $57 million, give or take even $20 million as buffer and still about 600,000 orders.

Show me different.

The only people who really do not want to believe this number is the other car companies, they NEVER heard of this.

Elon says they want no more orders on the books, they are trying to downplay the 3 every chance they get. The
Product Specialists are told to not sell at all the 3.

andy.connor.e | March 17, 2017

And you believe that its about 600,000 being that you dont know that. So stop trying to impose you are correct, because everyone is wrong. Thats your justification for your guess. Its hardly true.

Carl Thompson | March 17, 2017

minervo.florida:
"Elon stated that deposits are $663 million. That is ONLY deposits. This is very simple, S and X sell about 1900 cars per week combined, and lead time is about 6 weeks, so about 11,400 cars. When cars are done they go to delivery and the deposit comes off books. Take that 11,400 cars at $5000 deposit and that is about $57 million, give or take even $20 million as buffer and still about 600,000 orders.

Show me different."

Remember that Model 3 deposits were $1,000 _and up_. Tesla does significant business in countries other than the U.S. and interest was high all over the world. Many of those people paid significantly more for their Model 3 deposits.

You do not know how many deposits there are and neither do I. But I suspect that Eagles' guess is closer to correct than yours.

Carl

andy.connor.e | March 17, 2017

It doesnt matter whos is closer.

You're also ignoring potential deposits for Powerwall 2. AND ON TOP OF THAT, you are assuming Model S&X deposits based upon an average sale rate, and average waiting time. Completely disregarding any possibility for fluctuations in new demand for Tesla vehicles. Once again. You are not wrong. Eagles is not wrong. There is no wrong when making educated guesses. But dont you dare go telling someone that their guess is incorrect while yours is correct. That is stooping even lower than Eagles himself.

JHB10 | March 17, 2017

I am not from the US and my deposit was $1000

SamO | March 17, 2017

What? We don't have an exact number of deposits? Astroturders trying to downplay the number and then go pump the Dolt on another thread?????

Shocking!

Lulz

Carl Thompson | March 17, 2017

SamO:
"What? We don't have an exact number of deposits? Astroturders trying to downplay the number and then go pump the Dolt on another thread?????

Shocking!"

Please stop being a troll. If you don't have facts or opinion to add just don't speak.

Thanks,
Carl

Red Sage ca us | March 17, 2017

SamO is no troll here. He is a longtime valued contributor on this site. His insights and experienced regarding Tesla are a good thing for new users to behold. If chooses to do things that might be offensive to some, it is only in the interest of others.

KP in NPT | March 17, 2017

Pot, meet kettle. Sheesh.

SamO | March 17, 2017

Carl-Eagle,

Which Tesla Model do you own?

#Crickets

Tcloutier5890 | March 17, 2017

They better start making the cars soon as the posts in here are getting more and more adversarial rather than good natured banter or conjecture. Take a breath, we are all here for the same reason.

SamO | March 17, 2017

@tclout,

Welcome. "Some" of us are here for that reason. Threads full of excitement and free hats :-)

Some are paid Astroturfers and stock shorts quick to make sure nothing too positive is written without ridiculous trolling.

#DriveFree

Carl Thompson | March 17, 2017

SamO:
"Some are paid Astroturfers and stock shorts quick to make sure nothing too positive is written without ridiculous trolling."

Insults and lies in one sentence. But, sure, _other_ people are the trolls.

Carl

Haggy | March 17, 2017

It doesn't matter if it's 400,000 or 600,000 as long as Tesla is actively discouraging reservations. They didn't expect the reservation tally to take off in the first place until the second reveal and they are holding off on that as long as possible. They don't need to have an early reveal with less than perfect software if they don't need more reservations. The biggest obstacle to getting reservations is people wanting to get a car within a year of ordering it. Tesla doesn't need more than 20,000 reservations as long as people keep adding to the list as fast as Tesla can make them. For now, it's the best received car in history by far. Nothing comes close.

bj | March 17, 2017

@andy.connor.e - Minervo provided the maths underpinning the estimate, and it's reasonably robust based on the estimates given. The alternative guess has had no maths or explanations provided as to why it might be more accurate. When comparing estimates, one of which has good logic, maths, and reasonable assumptions behind it, and another that has nothing more than sophistry behind it, I know which one I pick.

As to your rebuttal points, they are statistical noise, and wouldn't move the needle much. Yes other countries paid more than $1000, but not much more. Here in Australia the deposit was AUD 1500, or about USD 1100 depending on the exchange rate on the day. As to Powerwall deposits, Tesla themselves say the deposits on the books are mostly due to Model 3.

If you can't provide more compelling justification for a 400k estimate then you've lost the argument.

carlgo2 | March 17, 2017

All that really matters is how many will be sold in the end. Even 400K is a lot and indicates that a surprising number of people even know about this car, and are willing to part with $1000 for a couple of years!

That number also indicates that many more people than expected likely do know about the car and are interested, but are also more cautious and not ready to put out any money until they are sure about things.

noleaf4me | March 18, 2017

OK - we can surely say the number of deposits are somewhere between 373k and 650k. Does it really matter I ask? I say NO. IMHO the deposits are from people who have kept up with this revolution -- maybe 10-20% of the modern world population. What happens when these cars actually hit the road and the balance of the people begin to see and experience this vehicle?!?! IMHO they will have another surge of reservations.....and sadly the wait will likely be years. THEY HAVE NO NEED TO STOKE IT ANY MORE -- all that will do is bring about frustration regarding the wait times.

Hopefully Musk has something up his sleeves and will announce GF2 (or GF3 if you count the Buffalo facility) and production plant #2 (and maybe #3) soon...... Model Y and Pick-up (the T Series???)

EaglesPDX | March 18, 2017

"maybe 10-20% of the modern world population."

The real number, even counting Teslas 400,000 order backlog, is 0.86%.

http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/

nelsonm010 | March 18, 2017

July 2016 reservation in N.C. I am thinking I am not going to see my invite until late 2018-early 2019. I hope I am wrong.

EaglesPDX | March 18, 2017

"hey better start making the cars soon as the posts in here are getting more and more adversarial rather than good natured banter or conjecture. Take a breath, we are all here for the same reason."

Not to worry. The nasty posts are by "lifers" who object to all the new Tesla buyers showing up and playing in "their" sandbox. Like the atavistic children in Lord of the Flies, they have their own "rules'.

They will soon be submerged in new Tesla owners using the forums as Tesla stated when they invited depositors to "Get answers from Tesla and other owners on the Tesla Forums" when we paid our $1,000.

Carl Thompson | March 18, 2017

EaglesPDX:
"They will soon be submerged in new Tesla owners using the forums as Tesla stated when they invited depositors to 'Get answers from Tesla and other owners on the Tesla Forums' when we paid our $1,000.'

Oh, are only owners an depositors allowed on the forum? I assumed it was open to the public as some of the people here I thought for sure were just children pretending to be adults. You mean they're all actual adults? Maybe they're letting their kids post on their accounts.

Carl

SamO | March 18, 2017

Echo . . .

KP in NPT | March 18, 2017

The troll is having conversations with himself! LMAO!

EaglesPDX | March 18, 2017

"Oh, are only owners an depositors allowed on the forum? "

No but the invite to use the forums came with the Tesla acknowledgement of the T3 deposit.

andy.connor.e | March 18, 2017

Guess ill have to sign off then!

akgolf | March 18, 2017

I don't think anyone with a T3 deposit got an invite!

EaglesPDX | March 18, 2017

"I don't think anyone with a T3 deposit got an invite!"

But everyone with a T3 deposit did get an invite to use the forums for "answers from Tesla and other owners" but Tesla has long abandoned the farm to the chickens.

akgolf | March 18, 2017

Nope my email said Model 3.

Carl Thompson | March 18, 2017

KP:
"The troll is having conversations with himself! LMAO!"

Now you're joining their gang of bullies?

akgolf | March 18, 2017

We'll count me in with the gang of bullies.

I would trust KP before Eagles/Carl.

SamO | March 19, 2017

Your schtick is lame. We've seen it before.

[Standing over Adhemar]
Wat: You have been weighed.
Roland: You have been measured.
Kate: And you absolutely...
Chaucer: Have been found wanting.
William: Welcome to the New World. God save you, if it is right that he should do so.

bmalloy0 | March 19, 2017

@SamO: +5 for Knight's tale.

SamO | March 19, 2017

@bmalloy0,

I've thought about this scene in relation to the way the old-school ICE automakers (and their henchmen) have trolled these forum for what feels like an eternity.

ICE automakers can't win without cheating (Ademar sharpens his lance and covers it with spun sugar) but in the end, the scrappy newcomer (TESLA) who eschews tradition is recognized as the best.

Fugazi trolls and GM astroturfers can't even begin to counterbalance the deep and untested demand for affordable Tesla products including vehicles, storage and solar. Fossil fuel dependent business are in a series of death spirals.

"I do not pretend to understand the moral universe; the arc is a long one, my eye reaches but little ways; I cannot calculate the curve and complete the figure by the experience of sight; I can divine it by conscience. And from what I see I am sure it bends towards justice." Theodore Parker

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