Tesla TImeline

Tesla TImeline

In light of the recent sell-off in the stock I remind myself and other Tesla fans to focus on the big picture. I began to imagine what Tesla will be accomplishing over the next 10 years. I came up with something like this:

2014: 50,000 Model S sales including Asia and right-hand drive countries; 5,000 Model X sales; Supercharger network covering 75% of population in the developed world; limited battery-swap stations open; TSLA $350

2015: Q1 Model E prototype revealed; All wheel drive Model S revealed; Supercharger network mostly built out; Tesla/Panasonic battery giga-factory announced; 70,000 Model S sales; 40,000 Model X sales; TSLA $650

2016: Improved battery pack options for Model S and X - range up to 500 miles; giga-factory opens; Superchargers upgraded to 200 kw; 90,000 Model S sales; 80,000 Model X sales; TSLA $950

2017: Model Y (GenIII crossover) prototype released; Model S mid-cycle refresh designs released; Mercedes adds more Tesla-built drivetrains to their line-up of cars; 50,000 Model E sales; 100,000 Model S and 90,000 Model X sales; TSLA $1,300

2018: Autopilot feature rolls out; announcement of new auto factory to be built in Europe; Superchargers upgraded to 250 kw; 150,000 Model E sales; 100,000 Model S sales; 90,000 Model X sales; TSLA $1,700

2019: Elon retires as Tesla CEO but remains Chairman; Model R (roadster) and Model Z (exotic) prototypes released using GenIII platform; European factory opens; Toyota adds Tesla-built drivetrains to their line-up; 2nd battery gigafactory to be built in Asia; Model X mid-cycle design refresh; 400,000 Model E; 50,000 Model Y; 110,000 Model S; 100,000 Model X; TSLA $2,200

2020: Model S 2.0 prototype released; 2nd gigafactory opens; GM begins to use Tesla-built drivetrains in their cars; 2 new auto factories announced - 1 in U.S. and 1 in Asia; Superchargers now get 50% charge in 5 minutes; 750,000 Model E; 200,000 Model Y; 120,000 Model S; 110,000 Model X; TSLA $2,900

2021: Model P (GenIII platform) pick-up truck and Model L (large pick-up truck) prototypes released; 2 new factories opened; Model E mid-cycle design updates released; improved battery pack options for all models extend range; 1.3 million Model E; 800,000 Model Y; 120,000 Model S; 110,000 Model X; 25,000 Model R; 1,000 Model Z; TSLA $3,800

2022: Most automakers are now using Tesla-built drivetrains and they pay Tesla so that these cars can access the Tesla Supercharger network. Tesla has added hundreds of stations to accommodate mass adoption; 3 more auto factories and 3 more battery giga-factories are announced spread between U.S., Europe and Asia; Gen IV platform announced with the Model C (compact) prototype being released. Model C will sell for $25,000. Tesla sells millions of cars with margins double the average automaker due to direct sales model and zero marketing budget. Tesla is the #1 supplier of fleet cars for taxi's, police, delivery vehicles, etc.; TSLA $5,000

Benz | November 9, 2013

Wow, you have given it some thought. What can we say, it sure is optimistic, and that's how I would like to see it as well. But during the journey Tesla Motors will face many difficulties. And with Elon Musk at the helm, they just might get it done in a way something similar like you have described it.

Please post this on Tesla Motors Club Forum as well. You just might get more reactions. Would be nice to see other people's reactions to your timeline.

Benz | November 9, 2013

Because your Tesla Timeline actually is very good, I have decided to share it with more of our Tesla friends at the Tesla Motors Club Forum (in the TSLA Investor Discussions thread). We all can use a positive view of the future. I hope you don't mind it. I have mentioned though that it's written by you and that all credits goes to you. And I expect that we will get many interesting reactions. This is going to be a very nice thread, thanks to you.

JZ13 | November 9, 2013

Thanks Benz! No doubt I am an optimist! haha

Brian H | November 9, 2013

Since share valuation, especially in a case where so much new ground is being broken, is based on risk-discounted extrapolation of numerous future achievements, it is likely to follow the S-curve. Competition will produce the upper plateau. When and at what level is the question.

negarholger | November 9, 2013

JZ13 - yes, your an optimist. But don't forget TM is not a car maker... in first place it is an electricity storage systems company. Selling cars is a trillion $ a year business, selling electricity is a tens of trillions $ business. A reliable car you can sell every 10-20 years again, but fuel you can sell every day. When will the revenue stream from super chargers ( charging cars is still free ), home storage etc will become part of the equation? By 2015 the mojority of the grid connections are done, by 2017 (Gen3) the super chargers have to be cash flow positive ( otherwise it would be a cost burden on Gen3 the price ).
Btw - a coworker just bought a BMW 3... $70k - if Elon can make a Gen3 base for $35k and break even, then he can make a killing on selling options.