There has to be a reason why TM hasn't posted how many M3 orders they have.

There has to be a reason why TM hasn't posted how many M3 orders they have.

Well, there just has to be.

KP in NPT | November 14, 2016

They don't need more reservations right now. According to the Q3 disclosure, they are holding 690M in deposits - so closer to 500K reservations. EM has said the first year of production is sold out.

jamilworm | November 14, 2016

My guess is that it just isn't much higher than the 400,000 that they got in the first month. So there's no point in updating it.

bj | November 14, 2016

The reason is - they don't want to.

bgbythsea | November 15, 2016

Yes they much rather keep us guessing and doing all this talking Tesla.

Ross1 | November 15, 2016

I am thinking that disclosure would create a nervous share market. I reckon it is over a million.

JHB10 | November 15, 2016

I am also curious, but ...
If it is lower, share price wil go down, because analysts will say demand was over inflated / buyers are abandoning it.
If the number is higher, the share price will go down, because analysts will say Tesla won't be able to keep up with the demand or supercharger network / dealership / service will suffer because of the higher than anticipated demand.

It is a no win situation, and Tesla knows the number, so to them it is not a mystery.
They might reveal it after the last Model 3 reveal to show that the interior and any modifications made are acceptable, but even that is not guaranteed - the first number was to get financing and suppliers on board and to encourage other manufacturers to start building EV's. The total number is irrelevant as long as demand exceeds supply.

dsvick | November 15, 2016

They probably don't want to release it because, no matter what it is, they'll get bad press and there will be articles saying it is the end of the company. If they have over 500,000 there will be all sorts of press saying they'll never be able to make that many in less than several years and that everyone should cancel their reservation. If they have just a few more than the 373,000 it will be said that it because the car is going to fail and people are realizing it and that everyone should cancel their reservation.

Once they are more locked in on the production line and the giga-factory being completed and the production start date is more locked in they'll make an announcement so they can say, we have X number of reservations and will start producing them on whatever date they announce. This may coincide with the second reveal or be an additional announcement in order to keep continuous interest.

andy.connor.e | November 15, 2016

If they did, news companies would just use those numbers to discredit Tesla. Every time someone cancels their order they would plaster it everywhere. If the numbers didnt go up in a month, they'd use that as a reason to suggest Tesla is going to fail. Car companies are threatened by Tesla, the news is their pawns. If you support them, support them. Dont degrade them for not doing what u want.

jordanrichard | November 15, 2016

Well if they are holding $690,000,000 in deposits, that is 690,000 reservations. Unless of course, thrown into the 690 is any deposits they have on pending MS and MX orders.

andy.connor.e | November 15, 2016

I dont think its an important figure. If im interested in the car, the companies pending orders would only be important to me to find out what my estimated waiting time would be. Other than that, the companies profitability or the likelyhood that they will not crash into the ground after i get my car is not important to me. You dont need Toyota in order to drive their car. Yes it will break down and the parts are not made anymore, but the bottom line is that the # of pending orders is not a significant figure to be releasing to the public. It wont provide any benefits.

KP in NPT | November 15, 2016

@jordanrichard - the electrek article linked above assumes some are S/X deposits. So maybe they were lowballing 500K. But regardless, it looks to be a much higher number than the last one reported by Tesla.

msjoey611 | November 15, 2016

If you currently go to the website to preorder and make a reservation, estimated delivery says mid 2018 "or later." If preorders were unrealistic to produce do you think they would still be taking preorders?

Haggy | November 15, 2016

The deposits listed on the 10K are for all cars, not just the Model 3, and it's the bottom line that counts rather than the breakdown. For every Model 3 reservation that Tesla can turn into a Model S sale, there will be one more sale, one less reservation, and more profit. But publishing an updated reservation count would give the opposite impression in that case. Cash on hand from deposits is a relatively small factor in the overall financials, and it's not clear that more reservations would mean more sales, given that Tesla has reservations going out to the point that people are wondering what year they will get their car, and Tesla will add more reservations once the car hits the street. As long as the reservation count is higher than what Tesla can make, it's not all that important. If Tesla had 35,000 reservations, and accrued as many new reservations per month as cars they build, that would mean the same profit as having a much bigger queue and not making cars yet.

Of course Tesla will continue to take reservations even if they are estimating mid 2018 or later. If a person wants to reserve a car, why should Tesla stop him? Shouldn't he have as much right as anybody else to get in line so he can get his car in the order in which people reserve them? Tesla could put off taking new reservations until 2018, but how would that help anybody? It wouldn't help Tesla to have fewer deposits. It wouldn't help potential customers if they had to wait and then lose their place by doing so, and they have the option of waiting until 2018 anyway so there's no down side. If Tesla could never get to it, then it would make sense to stop. But Tesla isn't planning to stop.

Ross1 | November 15, 2016

I agree with everyone.

"The number of orders" can also be expressed as "product you have been unable to build yet (for whatever reason)"

minervo.florida | November 15, 2016

It is a world changing number. Probably close to 600,000, wait until part 3 comes.


Bolt will have trouble making 35,000 for the first year. That is the max they can make I believe .

Bighorn | November 15, 2016

There has to be a reason why Ross started this thread.

JeffreyR | November 16, 2016
Badbot | November 17, 2016

Last thing I read was elon saying 600,000 This is second hand hand-me-down info.
I have no link to anything supporting this.
Just FYI

andy.connor.e | November 18, 2016

The only reason i would care is if i did not make a reservation yet.

KP in NPT | November 18, 2016

@Badbot I read the same thing. Can't remember where. Bloomberg maybe.

jordanrichard | November 19, 2016

The 600,000 came from Tesla saying that they had $600,000,000 in deposits. Now that would include MS and MX's, but I think it is safe to say that a vast majority of those deposits are the M≡. I highly doubt for example, that they have $100,000,000 in deposits for the MS/MX. However, let's say they did. That leaves $500,000,000 in deposits just for the M≡, which equals 500,000 $1,000 deposits.

carlk | November 19, 2016

@JohanH.Botha gave the best reason. People will always find faults no matter how high or low it is. The only thing that matters is Tesla knows and it will be planning production accordingly.

carlk | November 19, 2016

@Bighorn Oh I hope that answered your question too,

EaglesPDX | November 19, 2016

@jordanrichard "$100,000,000 in deposits for the MS/MX. However, let's say they did. That leaves $500,000,000 in deposits just for the M≡, which equals 500,000 $1,000 deposits."

Taking the T3 out of the equation, Tesla was going to ship 25,000 cars in Q4 and 50,000 in Q1, Q2 of 2017. 75,000 vehicles with $2,500 deposit would be $187M less the $600M would leave about 400,000,000 T3 deposits.

Likely less as a the total cash paid for cars to be delivered is full price so there could be anywhere from $100M to $250M in the vehicles ready for delivery queue (800 to 2000 cars).

So the "deposit dollars"reflect the basic 375,000 T3 orders that Tesla has acknowledged. With T3 being sold out through 2018 and the tax credit gone by then and with delivery price, options and date unknown, there's no incentive to put $1,000 down. You get nothing for it.

bj | November 19, 2016

@EaglesPDX - "would leave about 400,000,000 T3 deposits."

Wow - 400 million Model 3 deposits. I think this exemplifies the robustness and attention to detail in most of your contributions.

akgolf | November 19, 2016

@bj - Probably the same logic he used to estimate 100K Dolts in another thread.

EaglesPDX | November 19, 2016

@bj "400 million Model 3 deposits."

Sounds about right if the 600,000,000 in overall Tesla deposits and car pre-ship payments is correct. That would mean not a whole lot more T3 deposits since the big wave.

There's really no more incentive for anyone to put down a T3 deposit with Tesla announcing it is sold out until 2018. The tax rebate will be gone. Production will allow placing a regular order. New tech and improvements will make the 2019 T3 a better value.

So good reason that the number has remained static. | November 19, 2016

Minimum deposit is $1,000. 600,000,000 deposits x $1,000 = 600 Billion dollars! Who knew Tesla had that much cash on hand! (This is sarcasm for the mathematically challenged).

EaglesPDX | November 19, 2016 "Minimum deposit is $1,000. 600,000,000 deposits x $1,000 = 600 Billion dollars! "

But Tesla only has 600,000,000 in deposits so your numbers don't add up. With 100,000,000 to 250,000,000 in TS and TX deposits and pre-shipment car payments, that leaves 400,000,000 or less for T3 deposits, about the same 373,000 for which Tesla said it had deposits.

There's no incentive to put a deposit down now. The T4 is sold out for at least 2018, maybe further out as Tesla's 500,000 in 2018 is very optimistic production number. The tax credit will be gone. The T3 models in late 2018 and early 2019 will likely have improvements and people can order and get an actual delivery date. At this point, things are fairly static with T3 orders.

akgolf | November 19, 2016

Why put money down for a Model 3 when you could get a Dolt in 2016, oh wait 2017, oh wait 2018. Wait what state do you live in? Never mind.

KP in NPT | November 19, 2016

Yet people are still reserving. They know they won't get the tax credit and they don't care. Because the Model 3 is priced right without it.

EaglesPDX | November 19, 2016

@mp1156 "Yet people are still reserving."

No evidence of it from the numbers and certainly no reason to reserve at this point.

akgolf | November 19, 2016

LOL @ TrumpEagles "no reason to reserve at this point."

Unless they want the next COY and a technological marvel. They sure aren't waiting in line for the Dolt.

SamO | November 20, 2016

Since Tesla is actively anti-selling the Model 3, they want as many people buying the S and X today as possible.

When reveal part three of two happens in March . . . I expect the reservation numbers to really take off.

Now all we have are some pictures and vapor.

Tesla vapor . . . Which is still better than GM's phantom Bolt deliveries (in two states). Lulz.

Tiebreaker | November 20, 2016

Eagles, toy have no evidence for any numbers. Yet you continue to make false claims. How do you know that Tesla holds deposits for 75,000 MS/MX-es?

KP in NPT | November 20, 2016
SamO | November 20, 2016


And that represents $29,000,000,000 in orders.

How's GM's advance orders and deposits lookin'?

EaglesPDX | November 20, 2016

@Tiebreaker " have no evidence for any numbers"

I didn't post the 600,000,000 in deposits number, that was @mp1156. I pointed out that if one deducted the estimated deposits for TS and TX's plus the paid in advance of delivery car costs, the 600,000,000 becomes 400,000,000 and pretty much matches up to the 400,000 +/- that Tesla last noted as number of T3 orders.

There's just no reason for anyone to put a deposit down now. It doesn't help the introduction of the T3. The Federal tax credit will be gone. The delivery is two years away at best. The car is not even finalized on key details of range, price, options. US economic future is uncertain. Government support for EV's overall threatened.

As Electrek noted: "It’s crucial not to forget that the number of reservations for the Model 3 is particularly important for reservation holders in the US as it could determine if they get access to a full or partial federal tax credit for their new vehicle."

That incentive is gone for 2018 orders and all orders now are 2018.

akgolf | November 20, 2016

LOL @TrumpEagles.

And with all of your perceived disadvantages, it'll still outsell the Dolt. Why is that?

EaglesPDX | November 20, 2016

@jsimpsonalasaka "And with all of your perceived disadvantages."

There are simply no advantages in putting down $1,000 on a T3 at this point. No tax advantage, the biggest reason. No delivery advantage. No help get the T3 off the ground contribution. Just no reason to do it this late in the game.

akgolf | November 20, 2016

Sure there is.

It may be late 2018, but someone reserving today will be ahead of the person reserving tomorrow. And there are still people reserving, so they think it's worth it. People reserving today apparently think it's worth it without the tax advantage.

How can I ensure I could get a Dolt? Let's assume I don't want to move to the west coast and GM still wants to make(not likely) them.

Tiebreaker | November 20, 2016

@EaglesPDX - Your deduction for the MS/MX deposits is purposefully wrong. There are no MS orders today held for Q2 2017 delivery. There are NO 75,000 deposits for MS/MX. If you order today, it is for late December delivery.

You are just playing the numbers, trying to lower the estimated M3 deposits.

Nice try, but no cigar.

Bluesday Afternoon | November 20, 2016

Bjornftw just reserved one! This thread confirms people are still reserving the Model 3. Spoke to Tesla reps in two stores yesterday (11/19/16) and they are assisting folks in setting up their reservations. Maybe not huge #'s but people are still interested before the next reveal and surge in reservations. Getting your name in now will put you ahead of the thousands. And, there will be another surge!

KP in NPT | November 20, 2016

There have been plenty of postings here and on TMC and various FB pages - people are still reserving it. They want to get in the line and know there will be no tax credit. Since the car is priced right without it, that isn't stopping them.

EaglesPDX | November 20, 2016

@Tiebreaker "You are just playing the numbers, trying to lower the estimated M3 deposits"

Yikes! Numbers. Don't want to be using numbers now...especially Tesla numbers from their financial statement.

It's kind of pointless to put in a deposit now for a car in 2019 when, if Tesla's production plans pan out, Tesla will be on a much higher volume regular delivery schedule.

Just no reason to take $1,000 out of savings at this point.

akgolf | November 20, 2016

You just have to laugh at TrumpEagles attempts to attempt to stear potential Tesla customers to GMs Dolt.

Not sure what he's afraid of, it's not like they're making a boat load of the limited run compliance Dolts. Plus GM doesn't even want to sell them and would like to stop making them, so TrumpEagles I don't get your game? Why do you have a personal issue with all things Tesla?

Tiebreaker | November 20, 2016

Eagles ... LOL

Badbot | November 20, 2016

"It's kind of pointless to put in a deposit now for a car in 2019"
unless you want to wait until 2020 2021...
there were 270,000 when I got in 4/3/2016 it's 11/20/2016 so if averaged out 300,000/6 months 50,000 new reservations a month. the dolt > 30,000 yeah.

Tesla is trying to avoid FOMO (fear of missing out) by allowing everyone to believe 300K they will believe clearing out the backlog will be about a year from start of full production. by having this thought prevail they have time to fully ramp up over 2018. building 300k to 600k by the end of 2018 shows they can. by the time they deliver 600k wait times will be just a few months. Tesla can then tell the world to bring it on.

Frank99 | November 21, 2016

I put a deposit down on a second Model 3 recently. I felt it was a fine use of money that would otherwise be earning < 1%. When the production reveal of the Modell 3 comes along, I'm guessing we'll see another burst of deposits, and
(Note to readers: ridiculous assertion ahead, so put down your coffee before continuing)
if production ramps smoothly and quickly, another burst by the end of 2017 as the world sees that the Model 3 is real and flying out the door. I felt that getting a deposit in now might get my wife a car by Q4 2018, where waiting until production was at full-tilt might push that back by another year.