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Third Quarter 2015 does NOT Guarantee 7/1 First Deliveries!

Third Quarter 2015 does NOT Guarantee 7/1 First Deliveries!

It seems that everyone here is WAY too optimistic on future Model X Deliveries given the postponements to date. Elon could deliver the very first Signatures in mid September 2015 and still meet the latest deadline. If they fulfill all Sigs by 10/15 and then average 1000 regular production vehicles a week for the first 10 weeks, only people holding the first 10,000 regular production reservations would be delivered in very late 2015. I think that is a realistic scenario, and one that could easily be pushed back another 3 months or more.

Remnant | November 11, 2014

Tesla is very invested in the MX and very motivated to make it a legendary achievement.

The delays represent Tesla's quest for quality and attention to detail, not the financial drift or executive awkwardness some unfriendly types have insinuated.

I am confident that the production MX rollout will be worth the wait and an enormous success.

Red Sage ca us | November 11, 2014

Remnant: +1 UP!

scotttilson: Optimism, pessimism, and realism abide throughout these forums. It all depends upon one's perspective. I am certainly among the most optimistic here in regard to the Tesla Model X.

The Tesla Model S was in limited production by July 2012. That gradually improved. It went from 100 per week to 200 per week. From there it gradually ramped up to 400, and then 600 per week by the time a year had passed. This was a company that might have managed as many as 600 cars per year with the Tesla Roadster. It was a major accomplishment.

Today it is believed that Fremont may already be capable of over 1,000 units per week. Tesla Motors only speaks of their goal to reach 2,000 units per week, inclusive of Model S and Model X production, by the end of 2015. That is an easily attainable goal, and amounts to an annualized capacity of 100,000 vehicles per year.

I submit that Tesla Motors has said that deliveries of Model X will begin Quarter 3 2015. I remind you that starts in July 2015. Thus it is possible that production will begin in June 2015, for the vehicles to be delivered the following month. I suggest that Model X reservation holders will gain access to the Model X Design Studio in April 2015, during Quarter 2 2015.

I note that Tesla Motors could choose to do an official test ride event for Model X in February or March 2015. I inform you that many believe the first public unveiling of the Tesla Model X will be in January 2015 at the North American International Auto Show held in Detroit... At least, if the Great State of Michigan doesn't decide they are 'acting as a dealer'. All this, during Quarter 1 2015.

Elon Musk has indicated that the ramp up for Model X production will be much faster than what was seen with Model S. If it begins in June 2015, that leaves perhaps twenty-six weeks to build the Model X. What can be done in so short a time? Let's examine it, shall we?
TWENTY-SIX WEEK SCHEDULE (i)
RATE WKS AMT TOTALS
100 2 200 200
200 2 400 600
400 4 1600 2200
600 4 2400 4600
800 14 11200 15800

~or~

TWENTY-SIX WEEK SCHEDULE (ii)
RATE WKS AMT TOTALS
100 1 100 100
200 2 400 500
400 4 1600 2200
600 4 2400 4600
800 6 4800 9400
1000 9 9000 18400
See? The earlier you move the start date... The faster you can ramp up production to preserve quality while fixing bugs... The more weeks in the year can be used to build at 1,000 units per week.

What can I say? I'm optimistic.

vandacca | November 11, 2014

@Red Sage, they say a picture is worth a thousand words...

vandacca | November 11, 2014

@Red Sage, they say a picture is worth a thousand words...

Red Sage ca us | November 11, 2014

Kool-Aid is better than Haterade any day of the week.

;-)

ian t.wa.us | November 11, 2014

I like Kool-Aid!

jjs | November 12, 2014

I hate the delays. I like Kool-Aid. I'm torn.

georgehawley.fl.us | November 12, 2014

@scottilson: I like your way of thinking.
Just a minute while I take a sip of Kool Aid.
Where was I? Oh yeah, the MX is likely to be easier to get into mass production than the MS.
1. Frame, chassis, battery pack: done
2. Dual motor drive with AWD MS in production-no brainer.
3. Dash displays-90+ % identical at least.
4. Body all new.
5. Software virtually identical with the FW doors maybe having some interlocks and sensors to monitor for safety and control.
6. Interior maybe 60% new.

I don't expect bugs with respect to the interior design just maybe complaints about design decisions like seats too firm or too soft or whatever. Don't expect major bugs with body work, assuming the FW doors have been reduced to practice.

No unique supply issues

Compared to the MS, the MX should be easy to ramp up and should have benefited massively from the MS evolution with the possible exception of some fit and finish issues. Bring it on.
Now for some more Kool Aid.

ian t.wa.us | November 12, 2014

While we're sipping cool aid, Elon mentioned that the new body line that is slated for pre-MX 2015, is supposed to be even more state-of-the-art than the current one and that we should have and even higher precision of manufacturing tolerance going forward.

This gives me great hope for truly world class fit and finish!

Cheers!

ian t.wa.us | November 12, 2014

Sorry. Kool-Aid. ;-)

NumberOne | November 12, 2014

Don't worry, be positive! Good things come to those who wait. At least that is what they say.

georgehawley.fl.us | November 13, 2014

Oh yeah?
How about this? "Dr Jan Peters, from the Department of Systems Neuroscience at the University Medical Centre in Hamburg, said: “Humans normally prefer larger over smaller rewards, but this situation can change when the larger rewards are associated with delays."
So there.

vperl | November 13, 2014

I'd rather drink Crystal Light, but you Jim Jones types can drink what ever you please.

georgehawley.fl.us | November 14, 2014

Kool Aid, Kool Aid
Tastes Great.
Gotta have some.
Can't wait.

Repeat over and over while waiting for Model X.

scotttilson | November 14, 2014

@redsage

Thank you for your thoughtful analysis. Both scenarios seem possible and believable as potential outcomes. I guess it just comes down to the following:

1) Do MX actually get start to be delivered in 2015 3Q?

2) If so, does that mean starting 7/1 or mid september?

We will all know in the fullness of time!

Red Sage ca us | November 14, 2014

scottilson: Understand that I am fully capable of arguing the realistic, nee, pessimistic, side of the equation. I just prefer not to... It's more fun to dismantle the arguments against Tesla Motors' success than to build them. That's all.

I will say that those who are among $#0r+s, Bears, and Naysayers really need to find better representatives of their position. The guys out there now make it far too easy to refute their position. Too often they'll misquote, or misrepresent what has been communicated by Tesla Motors. It s typically child's play to find the actual qutes, statements, and reports to prove the real reality of the situation.

Yeah, I'm optimistic. But at least I have facts to back up my dreams.

Grwmj

Remnant | November 14, 2014

@ georgehawley.fl.us (November 13, 2014)

<< ... "Humans normally prefer larger over smaller rewards, ... [unless] the larger rewards [require] delays." >>

But the delays are acceptable if they make sense.

In the MSD-MΞ context, it looks very much like the MSD is the likely intermediate rung from MS to both MX and MΞ, as true family cars.

The real technological leap is very likely the MX, while the MΞ will sort of "ride its coattails". So, the MΞ is probably being designed as the popular/economic version of the MX and should roll out very soon after the MX reaches full production.

Morphing the MX into the MΞ would be a difficult marketing issue, rather than just a technical one and it's probably under way as we speak.

IMO, this linked, dual-design task would explain and justify the delays.

rossRallen | November 14, 2014

I'd sure like to feel part of the excitement of the X launch, but so far the X has simply been an obscure object of desire. Taking part means some kind of communication by e-mail or hardcopy to make reservation holders feel "special", a by-invitation intro event for the production car, opening the Design Studio so we can dream about all the goodies and paint colors, ...and a queue that's moving.

Given the 3-month wait for orders of high-end S's, opening the Studio in April for ~July delivery of the Sigs makes sense. If only wishing could make it so.

P.s.: I'll bet the FW doors are driving the delay: all the motors, sensors, and hardware for reliable opening and closing (with no air leaks or wind noise) over the life of the car, and side-impact crash test issues. What else is so different from the S that's taking so long to perfect?

carlk | November 15, 2014

Elon said: "we prefer to forgo revenue, rather than bring a product to market that does not delight customers." This can be interpreted as either they are trying to perfect the production for a reliable car or they are actually making more design changes. Either way it might be worth the wait if it's all for an even better car.

Brian H | November 15, 2014

RS;
Don't forget the nah-sayers, not to mention the Knights of "Nie" (never).

Red Sage ca us | November 17, 2014

Brian H: It's just a flesh wound.

.

5ujj1