With the 07/03/17 tweets by Elon (30 M3's delivered in July, 100 produced in Aug, 1500 in Sept and 20000 in Dec - and me guessing 5000 in Oct and 10000 in Nov), I have updated my "US Tax Credit Phase Out" projection numbers. (Skip to the last to paragraphs of this post if you don't care to see the math worked out.). This should be update/refined soon after Q2/2017 sales numbers are released.
Total cars sold by Tesla (worldwide):
Through 2012 = 5,100
In 2013 = 22,442
In 2014 = 31,665 (41% increase over 2013)
In 2015 = 50,658 (60% increase over 2014)
In 2016 = 76,234 (51% increase over 2015)
Cumulative at end of 2016 = 186,098 (worldwide)
Assume 58% of sales are in the US = Total US Sales through 2016 = 107,937 (will round up to 107,950)
(58% of the sales from the US - seemed to be a historical average, and may be lower in future quarters as Tesla expands into more countries)
The 02/21/17 Guidance from Telsa had estimated 47,000 to 50,000 total sales of S's and X's during the first half of 2017, but has now been superseded by the Q1 results of 25,000 Q1 deliveries - to which I will breakdown to be 14,500 (or 58%) sales in the US. This brings the approximate total US sales at the end of Q1 2017 to be around 122,450.
With the assumption of a continued 10% increase of MS and MX sales per quarter (equivalent to a 46% yearly increase) - then .....
Quarter : Future quarterly US sales / Cumulative US Sales (including M3, assuming 100% of M3's go to US customers)
Q1-2017 : 14,500 / 122,450 (14,500 estimated from Q1-2017 results)
Q2-2017 : 15,950 / 138,400 (continued 10% quarterly increase in US sales)
Q3-2017 : 17,545 / 155,945 (+1630 Model 3's = 157,575) therefore virtually no chance of hitting a cumulative 200,000 US sales during this quarter
Q4-2017 : 19,300 / 176,875 (+35,000 Model 3's = 211,875) hits 200,000 US deliveries during quarter unless M3 estimate is too rosy, 12000 M3's are stockpiled or sold overseas, and/or much lower sales of MS's and MX's than projected)
Q1-2018 : 21,230 / ~233,000 + beaucoup de M3's (hits 200,000 US deliveries during this quarter unless wheels fall off of M3 ramp up - or if 200,000 was hit previous quarter)
Q2-2018 : (There is likely little or no chance at arriving into Q2 without reaching the 200,000 threshold first)
This puts the possible totals deliciously near hitting 200K very early in Q1-2018 (many or most posters up until now - including myself - had guessed that Q4-2017 would be the quarter where 200K was hit). So my non-decisive summary and conclusion is:
If the ramp up goes really well (and Elon's tweets were overly cautious) and there is no stockpiling, and/or sales of MS's and MX's are increasing by much more than 10% per quarter, then 200K will be hit sometime in Q4-2017, and the credits are as follows:
$7,500 Federal Tax Credit from Car #1 through 03/31/18
$3,750 Federal Tax Credit 04/01/18 through 09/31/18
$1,875 Federal Tax Credit 10/01/18 through 03/31/19
No Federal Tax Credit after 03/31/19
Scenario B: (My current projection)
If the ramp up goes per Elon's tweets and they stockpile, or the ramp is slower than Elon's tweets and/or sales of MS's and MX's do not increase by much more than 10% per quarter, then 200K will be hit sometime in Q1-2018, and the credits are as follows:
$7,500 Federal Tax Credit from Car #1 through 06/30/18
$3,750 Federal Tax Credit 07/01/18 through 12/31/18
$1,875 Federal Tax Credit 01/01/19 through 06/30/19
No Federal Tax Credit after 06/30/19
My money is now on Scenario B - Hot Damn!!!!!
Thoughts ?? Mistakes ??? Ridicule ???