Used Model S or Gen 3 in 3 years

Used Model S or Gen 3 in 3 years

I am new to the board but have been following Tesla for a year or so now. I was wondering what everyone's thoughts are about what a used model S would cost in 3 years (both the 60 and 85 kwh) and if I would be better off buying a used S or a new Gen 3.

Sorry if this has already been discussed.

constraint | September 17, 2012

I believe the normal depreciation of a new car after 3 years is 50 percent. While normally I would say the questions with the battery life would reduce that value even more, the relative lack of affordable long range EV's will probably offset any extra depreciation that the battery wear would add. For that reason my guess would be 30k for 60kwh and 35k for 85kwh. If the 7500 tax credit gets taken out due to politics you can probably add another 2000 to that number.

While no specifics are out for Gen III the 30k (after rebate) version musk talks about will probably be about 120 mile range with a 40 kwh pack or so (guessing).

So random guess is that the 3 year old 60 kwh pack will problably be the same cost as Gen III's basic model. We know that Tesla will try and throw a bunch of "needed extra's" to prop up that basic price like they did with the S.

olanmills | September 17, 2012

You could just compare it to other cars in the same class, because that's the best we would have to go on.

Other than that, there's no way we could possibly know. There's all kinds of factors we don't know about:

How many Model S's will have been produced by then?
How many will they be producing on a continual basis?
What will the differences in styling and features be between a launch Model S and the 2016 model?
Will something better have come along either from Tesla or a competitor in the intervening time?
How many Model S owners will be looking to sell?

There's no information and the current set of Model S reservation holders do not represent a "normal" population of car buyers on a normal buying/selling cycle.

TikiMan | September 17, 2012

iMHO, it will have a LOT to do with where gas prices are by 2016. At the current rate gas prices are going, for all we know, the Model S might actually go UP in price (both new and used). As of now, NO ONE on the planet has an all EV in the works that comes remotely close to the Model S.

Remember, demand can drive UP the cost of anything! Even Fisker has raised their prices on the Karma by almost $20k, and they have a really bad track record right now, nevermind, the car hardly gets 35 miles of EV power, and only gets around 25 MPG, after all the batteries have been depleted.

Thus the reason why I JUMPED at the chance to be one of the first to own a Model S two years ago! Nothing even comes close, and might not for many many years!

Brian H | September 17, 2012

Like the kid said, "This car is from the Future!"


petero | September 17, 2012

Coreyipipe. It is all about wants, needs … and budget.

I agree with ‘constraint,’ in 3-4 years an ‘S’ will depreciate approximately 50%. So you are right, you can find price parity with a used ‘S’ or a new Gen III. If you buy a pre-owned ‘S’ from TM they will probably certify it and give some warranty or allow you to buy an extended warranty which will be important. A NEW base model S (40kWh, cloth, no extras) @ $50K+ (with rebate) will be about the same MSRP as a new, loaded Gen III. Which would you prefer?

TM will emulate the BMW / MB not a Chevy / Ford model. Buyers will probably prefer well optioned vehicles with the latest and greatest in technology. G III may start at $30-35K but will likely be $50-60K MSRP. Which begs the questions would you prefer a loaded G III or the basest “S?” I think the buyers will opt for the loaded G III. I feel the ‘S’ will move up market and be sold as a loaded flagship with even more bells and whistles.

What makes the “S” unique, it's a fresh design. There is no recycled anything. Future TM models will recycle parts, case in point the “X” and I will wager there will be parts from the “S” that find their way into the G III design.

olanmills | September 17, 2012

yeah except for that bit with the steering wheel and the stalks...

I'm going to be super jealous of the Model S 2.0's with their push button or touch screen "gear" shifter and Model X-like steering wheel-mounted screen-buttons.

Teoatawki | September 18, 2012

Assuming the leasing program gets started next year, in 3 or 4 years there will be cars coming off lease available for sale, too.