So I plunked down 1,000 about a week ago. My current car lease is up December 2018. What are the odds my model 3 will be ready for delivery by December 2018? 50%?
That's a reasonable guess, IMHO.
Congrats, matthermanndesign! Welcome to the waiting game--the ride before the ride. It's all good.
It all depends on how many actual reservations there are, how many of them actually turn into orders, and how fast they can ramp up. Worst case for you is that there really are 600K reservations and they all order. Even with the ramp going 100% to expectations it would be a very narrow thing for you to get it by the end of next year.
However, odds are that the ramp wont go 100% as planned but not all of the reservations will be turned into orders so I'd say there is a chance of late next year or first quarter 2019.