Forums

What is the expected delivery if a deposit is made today 11-10-2014

What is the expected delivery if a deposit is made today 11-10-2014

2015 was sold out before the last model X delay was announced. With the first orders supplied in September 2015 when would I expect to get delivery of a non performance model X If I made a deposit today? Would September 2016 be a reasonable expectation? I assume only proformance (P) model X will be supplied in 2015, low end models to follow in 2016. Or is "coming soon" the only answer to this question?

timf2001 | November 10, 2014

It's impossible to know for sure until deliveries begin, since first delivery has been a moving target. We know this much. At last count, there were approximately 22,500 reservations made worldwide, Given the delays and other offerings such as AWD S, a conservative guess would be 50% of these turn into actual orders. Say they are able to build around 10,000 Model X in 2015, you would be looking at delivery in about February 2016 for a new reservation. Even if you assume the worst case scenario and more delays, I can't imagine you would be waiting as long as September 2016. Once they know how to build the Model X, they'll be building them as fast as they can get parts.

Red Sage ca us | November 11, 2014

Tesla Motors will probably have 30,000 reservations for Model X by the time the Design Studio allows them to be configured. I expect at least 20,000 will be built during 2015. At 1,000 per week, the final 10,000 could be filled in two-and-a-half months into 2016.

Red Sage ca us | November 11, 2014

Tesla Motors will probably have 30,000 reservations for Model X by the time the Design Studio allows them to be configured. I expect at least 20,000 will be built during 2015. At 1,000 per week, the final 10,000 could be filled in two-and-a-half months into 2016.

Brian H | November 11, 2014

RS;
Yeah, could be a bit sooner, though; 2015 is the year of lots o' bots for the parallel body line, etc. Not to mention the new Paint Center for gold, emerald, sapphire, royal purple, etc. ;)

NumberOne | November 11, 2014

While nothing is really set in stone at this point, I think a safe estimate would be that a car reserved today would be unlikely to be available before Spring of 2016. In fact, it is also unlikely that you would be able to finalize your order before 2016.

If you are thinking about getting the Model X, waiting will just delay you even more. $5k is not a lot.

milesbb | November 11, 2014

Thanks for the responses. Seems folks believe delivery will be much sooner then I thought, possible exception of "scotttilson". I think it is time to have the heart to heart with the wife and put down the $5k. Using my typical 10 yr car ownership, this will need to last until 2026, at which time I will likely get a near autonomously driven car that will make up for the aging process and loss of driving skill. As long as the price does not go crazy high his should work out.

georgehawley.fl.us | November 12, 2014

@milesbb: can't improve on the wait time guesses but I advise you to update your Trust when you purchase the Tesla Model X. Unless you use it to deliver Tasmanian Devils, if you are a careful driver, the vehicle will last far longer than 10 years. Here are some reasons why:

1. It will come completely equipped with hardware to enable autonomous operation. Just a matter of software updates and regulatory approvals.
2. It will be built almost entirely out of aluminum and will not rust out.
3. When the battery pack approaches the end of its 8 year warranty you will be tempted to buy a new one that will give you a big boost in range for another 8 years, etc.
4. The vehicle software appears to receive periodic updates from Tesla with feature additions.
5. The electric motors could eventually wear out their bearings, I guess. But Tesla seems to be good at replacing them based on early MS experience.

If you don't have any heirs, I could suggest one of my grandchildren.:-)

ian t.wa.us | November 12, 2014

On the topic of battery upgrades, I REALLY hope they happen but with Tesla's attitude about some of the other most recent upgrades, I'm growing doubtful. I hope they surprise me.

Brian Vicars | November 12, 2014

My second car has lasted 36 years so far. My model X will be my last vehicle. I can wait until 2016.

vandacca | November 12, 2014

@brainvicars1, that's impressive. What car have you been driving for 36 years?

Brian H | November 12, 2014

My brother drives a '74 Mustang LX, but he didn't buy it new. AFAIK.

Brian Vicars | November 13, 2014

1978 Chevy Impala. It will be parked in my garage beside my Model X. The old and the new.

Remnant | November 22, 2014

@ vandacca (November 12, 2014)

<< What car have you been driving for 36 years? >>

If you replace the ICE engine every 9 years or so, and the transmission every 6 yrs or so, you could say you've driven the same car for 36 years, couldn't you?

vandacca | November 22, 2014

@Remnant, I guess you could say you've driven the same car if your replace engine/transmission. As long as you live in an area without snow and away from a salty ocean, since the body would rust/deteriorate to nothing. Maybe we should define that a percentage of the vehicle (by weight or volume) should be original, for it to be considered the same vehicle. :)

Brian H | November 22, 2014

Every cell in your body is replaced every 7 yrs or so. So you're about the 10th version of yourself.

georgehawley.fl.us | November 22, 2014

I liked number 4.

georgehawley.fl.us | November 22, 2014

I now have a stainless steel hip and a titanium knee.
At this rate I won't have and cells left in 7 years.

jjs | November 22, 2014

george the cyborg?

Brian H | November 23, 2014

If you place a deposit today, the expected delivery will be a car.