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what the future beholds for us

what the future beholds for us

As 2013 is about to come to an end I picked up my crystal ball to see what the future would hold for us. My model can sometimes be blurry, please let me know what else you see in yours. But this is when and what I saw:

2014-Q3 Model X first deliveries

2015-Q1 Gen III on display on the Detroit Motor Show.

2015-Q2 Model S 4WD Released

2015-Q3 Supercharges effect reaches 170 kw. Sc's are also getting crowded so some of the bays for each location are being bookable (with your car's account, abuse will be noted). If you are not in range to reach the SC 15 minutes before your time slot you lose it (gps tracked). This since if you have have to be in a meeting at a certain time out of >200 mile out of town you need to be able to count on Sc availability

2015-Q4 130 kWh/ 500 mile batteries offered with Tesla cars

2015-Q4 "Tesla Utility Service". Taxi/Postal Service/police forces (etc.) in some major cities around the world acquires model X/S's and leases a few battery swapping stations from Tesla, placing them in the urban area so that they cars can be running with minimal downtime and very low TCO. Since the city/company owns the batteries, ownership is not an issue

2016-Q2 Google's and Tesla's joint venture company manufacturing batteries goes live (called Gig-el actually). Google giving their robots life-power and Tesla to supply for the cars

2017-Q2 First Gen III deliveries. Other car companies goes uh-oh

2018 Auto pilot cars come into play from a number of car makers. A known dealer association have a hard time understanding what this is so they sue Tesla and ban parsley in Texas

2019 Other manufacturers of trucks/buses/boats becomes major clients for Gig-el. Transport companies with gig-el batteries team up and sets up swapping stations for their trucks and buses along major roads and make their fleet fully electric

2020 As a result of SpaceX making rockets reusable and cutting their costs by 95% a space hotel is being built to open for space tourism and Virgin galactic offers package deals

2023 Major breakthrough in battery technology (Metal Air / Graphene /superconductor). Energy density good enough to propel electric jets (guess who builds one)

2025 Cities starts to ban vehicles with tailpipe emission

2031 Man has been to Mars several times and Elon celebrates his 60th birthday on the red planed

2050 Terra-forming of Mars is starting (releasing oxygen from frozen water and bringing down ice-comets (no pun intended) on the planet)

2103 Mankind FINALLY invents the hover-board!!

GeekEV | December 24, 2013

Nice thoughts. I hope you're right!

Webcrawler | December 24, 2013

I hope you are right. The next couple of years are likely to be amazing...

valesek | December 25, 2013

Future will be awesome. We need to realize our toughts not for money, for better future. :)

Benz | December 25, 2013

You should take a look into that crystal ball of yours more often (at least a few times a year), and then report to us what you have seen.

By the way, can you see in that crystall ball of yours in which month of 2014 Panasonic will start to deliver/supply higher quantities of 18650 battery cells to Tesla Motors? That would be helpful.

Tesla Bahamas | December 25, 2013

Can your Crystal Ball tell me when will Tesla's EV's come down to 35,000 landed in the Bahamas? Then I will buy a used Model S. New one EV will still be too expensive.

daoops | December 25, 2013

Benz, it looks like Tesla will be supply constrained all the way through 2015 unfortunately. Still there will be 70.000 Teslas out on the roads in the early 2015 showing the world that old prejudices against electric cars are just not true. (I wish I could foresee the last time I would hear "But you cannot recycle batteries" or "why bother with electric cars when the energy is created from coal" but I guess that's just not part of my future)

L O, if you live in the Bahamas I am too envious of you to be able to focus on anything but how envious I am. :)

daoops | December 25, 2013

Benz, it looks like Tesla will be supply constrained all the way through 2015 unfortunately. Still there will be 70.000 Teslas out on the roads in the early 2015 showing the world that old prejudices against electric cars are just not true. (I wish I could foresee the last time I would hear "But you cannot recycle batteries" or "why bother with electric cars when the energy is created from coal" but I guess that's just not part of my future)

L O, if you live in the Bahamas I am too envious of you to be able to focus on anything but how envious I am. :)

cloroxbb | December 25, 2013

I think it would take much more than 130 kwh to be a 500 mile battery. I dont think it will be a linear equation since weight and such will be a strong factor.

daoops | December 26, 2013

You are probably right. 130 kWh and/or 500 mile

jstack6 | December 26, 2013

cloroxbb, Tesla has already announced a new battery for the S due out in 2015. It will have 40% more range and even longer life.

http://goo.gl/E78kyT

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Tesla+(TSLA)+to+Develop+Hybrid+Battery+Packs+that+Could+Increase+Range+40%25+-+Analyst/8689599.html

cloroxbb | December 26, 2013

@jstack6

That's cool, I didn't say there won't BE a bigger battery, just saying 130 kWh is probably not enough for 500 mile range.

cloroxbb | December 26, 2013

FWIW filing patent applications =\= announcement. This is just an analyst prediction based on patent applications. Doesn't mean anything of substance.

Brian H | December 26, 2013

Metal-air batteries are not user-rechargable, they are single-use & replace. Limited applicability.