What spec to order for least depreciation?

What spec to order for least depreciation?

Your thoughtsd will vary, but mine is that to order a basic $35k car will have the least depreciation as it will be in extreme demand for traxis.

If you kept one for a year or two, then you would know better what options to get next time, as well as get the later upgrade.

To do this you might well place 2 orders, one for now and one for delayed delivery.

Any concensus?

SamO | April 24, 2017

Agree. Plus there is likely to be a robust secondary market for the first 6 months.

topher | April 24, 2017

Generally high margin options are going to depreciate faster on any car. As long as the base model isn't junk, it is usually the best bet for holding value (in these days where ALL cars come with radios, AC, etc.)

For the model 3, winterize option might be an exception if you live in a cold climate.

Thank you kindly.

Captain_Zap | April 24, 2017

The largest battery. It extends the useful life of the battery and charges faster. Second in importance to me is the faster AC charger.

The rest is just fun and personal preference... except the regional items, like the winterize option.

Civicrick | April 24, 2017

I'm spreading my 2 reservations because I would like to test drive one for awhile (a few months at least) to get a feel for the car. I'm getting a basic first as it will probably be sold in a year or two but should be able to get an idea about options I could appreciate. We plan to give one to one our sons as a wedding present (about 18 months away) and I want to be sure its a gift I want to give (amount I want to spend lol)

andy.connor.e | April 24, 2017

Dual motors

Ross1 | April 24, 2017

What was Elon's guess of the average purchase?
$42 or $46k?

Taxis are using lots of Prius, not much range there.
Not convinced taxis need the extra range for the cost, maybe they do. Maybe taxis are best as hybrids.

Some years ago (50), Popular Mechanics said the only option to buy for lowest depreciation is premium paint.

topher | April 24, 2017

"What was Elon's guess of the average purchase? $42 or $46k?"

I have heard him say both $42k, and $45k at various times.

"Taxis are using lots of Prius, not much range there."

Huh? Prius get 550 miles of range or so. (except for hypermilers who get 1200...)

Thank you kindly

greg | April 24, 2017

The best way to avoid depreciation on cars is to buy the fewest of them you can, i.e. buy one car instead of two.

Whether those two cars are ICE/ICE or BEV/BEV or any combination won't matter much.

Buying a more optioned one car that can do all the jobs you require of it, over two cars each optioned less to let you handle two separate types of uses, is going to be far cheaper longer term depreciation and other costs-wise.

There is however a good chance as a one off, that those who reserved two 3's early on, will be able to take delivery of their first Model 3, use it for a bit, then resell it, for a price not that much less than they paid for it new - as there is always someone who doesn't want to wait 12-18 months from now for a Model 3 - when they just heard of it recently, and they want one right *now*. So they'll pay more than "after Tax Credits deducted prices" to avoid the queue and get their hands on one.

Meaning you could end up buying two Model 3's [first one, then th' other] but actually only keeping the second one.

If you do that, you could get two sets of tax credits, and the first car shouldn't cost you too much in "depreciation". Maybe nothing in depreciation, on a good day, so you might end up being $7.5K better off, so you'll have that much more money to put forward to the options on the second one.

But that all depends on many things, release dates, how long you have to wait between the first and second reservation and the Tesla Network details and rollout plans, and o fcourse how many 3's you reserved [1 or 2], and what you can afford.

Red Sage ca us | April 24, 2017

Wait... Least dollar amount depreciation... Or least percentage of depreciation... And over what time period?

cskre | April 24, 2017

air suspension, super sound, dual engine, would be nice, but tow hitch is a must. Will it be offered / after market like with the S ???

Red Sage ca us | April 24, 2017

Tow hitch options will likely be through Tesla direct, as they were with Model X.

Garyeop | April 24, 2017

I think awd will hold value over time. I know i will get pounded on this but...I think any battery upgrade will not hold value. Battery technology will explode with the new level of demand. The Model s and model x buyers spent money that moved Tesla along. I am doing the same. But I expect my batteries to be ones no one would buy in 8 years. I will buy and use this car until the wheels fall off but I won't buy more battery than 4 times my daily drive. I also expect my 2026 Tesla to cost $25k.

Red Sage ca us | April 24, 2017

Garyeop: Once again, used vehicles outsell new ones by a wide, wide margin. And, they do so while still averaging over 10 years of age. There will definitely be someone who is willing to buy, and keep, an 8-year-old Tesla Model ☰, just a there are those willing to buy an 8-year-old Tesla Roadster.

SamO | April 25, 2017

The flag option is pricy.

Ross1 | April 25, 2017

@ Sage: OP = least depreciation in dollar terms.
You cant put % in your pocket.

viper17d | April 25, 2017

I think this is a really interesting question. As a direct answer: I think Dual Motors, Larger Battery (assuming it's not software limited), and Winter Package (depending on your locale) are "good" choices to prop up your value and limit depreciation.

The interesting part of this is whether you think Tesla is more of an auto company or a technology company. Historically, if you look at the Model S, those have held their value as a premium car. The design/key features have not materially changed over the years and that has helped potential used buyers equate new/old with obvious caveats. The auto/tech identity worked quite well together.

Now, as we get to the Model 3, this car is shifting somewhat away from the luxury car space (I know, I know. $35K is base luxury and Elon said it would be the best car you could by at that price). As these cars are more attainable, does that then shift Tesla closer to consumer electronics?

Once Tesla has scaled production, changes will seem to come quicker. I don't think annual or bi-annual updates, significant updates, are out of the question. Looking at consumer electronics, I try to avoid the base model of anything. Things advance too quickly, and Tesla, at scale, can make one change and immediately de-value all existing Model 3 cars.

I'm curious what any of you think on this?

KP in NPT | April 25, 2017

The Schipoltaxis in Amsterdam that I have seen are all 85s. No AWD. I would say a stripper version of the car, assuming the base battery will match the Bolt, is just fine for a car that will primarily be used for a taxi.

topher | April 25, 2017

"@ Sage: OP = least depreciation in dollar terms. You cant put % in your pocket."

You can't put depreciation in your pocket at all.

Thank you kindly.

EaglesPDX | April 26, 2017

"Your thoughtsd will vary, but mine is that to order a basic $35k car will have the least depreciation as it will be in extreme demand for taxis."

Depends on what people want in a Tesla, range is the single most important feature in an EV so the biggest battery will likely have the most demand. Especially true in a used car with the inevitable lion battery degradation.

Trying to sell a stripped down T3 that has a range of 220 x .95 209 miles and will need another $6,000 to activate AutoPilot is likely going to be hard sell.

AWD is also one you'd want to order as market demand is almost 100% for AWD for new Teslas and it is not something that can be added later.

Same with winter package which is not offered after sale.

Same with paint.

So ordering with things that cannot be added would likely have the least depreciation.

Based delivered $36,200
Paint $1,200
Battery $10,000
AWD $5,000
Weather $1,000

Total $53,400

Selling used you might want to consider buying the 4 yr maintenance/warranty extension. The reason is if you sell it used at 10,000 miles, the next owner can only add 50,000 miles to it. If you buy the full 100,000 and sell it at 10,000 then you are selling a 90,000 mile warranty with the car.

Ross1 | April 26, 2017

I wonder what if any of the 373000 preorders were fleet and taxi sales?

Was/is there any limit on how many 3s you can order?

Frank99 | April 26, 2017

Yes, you could reserve a maximum of two.

If you were in the taxi business and wanted to order 100, I don't think you'd stand in line in front of a store; you'd call up Fleet Sales at Tesla and work out a delivery schedule.

JeffreyR | April 26, 2017

I'm w/ @viper17d on bigger battery, AWD, and Winterize (if appropriate).

@OP, @RS's questions are important. I was wondering the same thing. One is cash flow and the other is value. TVof$ is important. So time is important too.

Some considerations:
1) Popular options that are considered important should maintain value
2) Options that are easily added later may (likely) not
3) Will replacement batteries be available & cheap before larger one's advantages are used up?
4) Can you make money from impatient people before The Great Ramp Up is in full swing?