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What will the skeptics say now?

What will the skeptics say now?

It's always embarassing for the critics when reality cruelly destroys their nay-saying right before their very eyes, so I wonder what will they say now?

"Bah... 132,000 reservations doesn't impress me. They'd need 10 million to impress me."
"I predict less than 10% of those reservations will translate into real sales"
"Reservations schmeservations, it's academic when Telsa won't be able to actually make them"
"EVs are still a flash in the pan, a microdot on global car production. The combustion engine is here to stay for the next 100 years"

Have any of the critics yet got that bead of sweat running down the back of their neck as they realise they might have got it horribly, totally wrong?

p5yc071c | April 1, 2016

Elon mentioned a really good book, "Merchants of Doubt" where the techniques of the tobacco executives are used in the oil industry to sell doubt as a product. Your post reminds me of this book because of how ridiculous it really is...yet it works : /

Nexxus | April 1, 2016

Yeah, and the shorts are whizzing in their pants right about now too.

damirdukic6 | April 1, 2016

Stealerships are not happy which makes me very happy!

hv.lewis | April 1, 2016

I think the biggest worries I had were range and delivery times.
I am in the UK and tesla UK have confirmed that right hand drive cars will be at the end of the delivery queue!
The early rush of teslerites to order is great, but after that you are looking for people who are prepared to wait many years (in the UK, at least).
The range of 200/225miles (really 150) is less than I would hope for and the likes of Nissan leaf will be up at that level in the next 12months.
OK the Leaf does not compare to the model 3, but it is cheaper and has a small foothold already.
But the plus side it looks a beautiful car, and deliveries should start to drop as things get into full swing.
I have no doubts about Elon or Tesla and love the whole thing.
Just trying to give my honest opinion as it stands today!

alistair | April 1, 2016

I'm kind of glad that right hand drive comes later, hopefully quite a few bugs gone before they hit the UK.

malcolm.hall1932 | April 1, 2016

alistair: +1 Yes and my car was one of the first with autopilot because it was late so there can be a silver lining :-)

RJT85 | April 1, 2016

@Alistair - yes hopefully the bugs will all be ironed out by the time we get UK deliveries with the steering wheel on the right side ;-)
I'm working on the basis of a 24-30 month wait, which will be fine for me as I only got the Model S 10 months ago. Model S is great, but a bit wide for the roads around where I live.

Ross1 | April 1, 2016

The skeptics?
She said, and she is always right, that Tesla will find it near impossible to fill the orders while Elon is picking up rivets in the factory, too hands on, and they now need some very good management.

I thought of applying, but she said I am not the right material. Not like the skeptic. And she can't be bothered.

But if Elon wants to call me....?

Ross1 | April 1, 2016

Seriously, don't be surprised if the stocks go south due to doubt in Tesla's ability to ramp up and face the order book.
This is the biggest thing ever happened in industry.
Why and how do you think TSLA is going to get on top of it?

stevenmaifert | April 1, 2016

The number of M3 reservations so far demonstrates a lot of folks have faith in Tesla, but the skeptics will say Tesla is a long way from delivering the car and they will focus on the challenges Tesla faces to get to the level of mass production that will ultimately decide Tesla's future. Lots of variables in the equation. I have faith Tesla will get it done, but also expect there will be bumps along the way.

Hi_Tech | April 1, 2016

@henrymouni - I believe it's 215miles of real world driving (EPA figure), not the figures that companies self declare (like Bolt saying 200, but will do 150 max in real world... my assumption).

barrykmd | April 1, 2016

The way Tesla does things, I'd be surprised if production begins before 2019.

Nexxus | April 1, 2016

Well, one thing going for Tesla is, it's obvious from the reveal that 1) They can make the car. 2) All the tooling has been made for the robotics to make them, and 3) All our hard-earned monies have paid for this infrastructure to make it happen. I don't pretend to know how much more R&D money will be spent this year on the Model ≡, but the bulk of it seems to have paid off so far.

Hi_Tech | April 1, 2016

My assumptions on what the skeptics will say, though I disagree with all:
1. If they are loosing money for each car they build, they will only loose money faster with these.
2. If they are loosing money with $100k car, then there is no way they can make this $35k car profitable.
3. This car will be in the $50-60k range with options added in, which will be above the normal range...
4. Doesn't matter how many reservations, because they cannot deliver on time.. they will be delayed by years and will not have factory or battery production ready.
5. Competition will be out before they release and many of these reservations will be cancelled.

(I'm sure there will be many others, but this is off top of my head for now). Again, I disagree with all of the above and will constantly argue with facts to prove them wrong, but hard to convince people with their heads in the sand.

hv.lewis | April 1, 2016

HiteshBhatt
The 215 miles is meaningless, as there are so many factors that will reduce this considerably.
The points I have made are 'real World', an the 'man in the street' will not wait 2 years plus for a new £30,000 plus car.
Life is too short.
'Teslerites' always attack the truth by calling people skeptics or idiots.
I love Tesla but it does not stop me making observations, good and bad.
I do feel if they can get through the next 2 years, production should be flowing.
The competition are working hard to catch up and overtake, but Elon sees this as a good thing for the planet.

Chunky Jr. | April 1, 2016

From what I've read on comment boards, most of the Tesla haters point out the tax incentives and think that the company can only stay afloat because of them. They mistakenly feel that they are subsidizing the cost of the car.

Some mistakenly think that you have to stand around and wait for it to charge like you're going to a gas station and don't get that you can just charge it at night. That concept is so foreign to them that they can't process it.

Others don't like Musk personally for whatever reason.

And others have ideological/political axes to grind.

It has nothing (or very little) to do with the car itself.

dsvick | April 1, 2016

@henrymouni
"the 'man in the street' will not wait 2 years plus for a new £30,000 plus car."

Over 133,000 of them already said they'd wait that long. Everyone that put their money down over the past 24 hours knew that production and delivery wasn't scheduled until late next year.

JAD | April 1, 2016

They may not wait, but in 3 years when the initial rush is over, they will be ready for a new car again and this shows there is real interest in a GOOD affordable EV. Talking to people in line, the unfortunate side effect is no Leafs, i3's or Bolts are going to sell. This will hurt EV sales in the short term.

Tesla Bahamas | April 1, 2016

I think we are forgetting that there are plans to a manufacturing plant in china and one has already (or at least assembly) in Europe.

With the cost of shipment going down, hopefully the cost of the vehicle will also go down.

Hi_Tech | April 1, 2016

Though these reservations may hurt the EV sales, of other companies, in the short-term, I think it proves a point that people aren't buying because of the crappy quality of the other EVs as the reason for reduced sales... if they can improve the quality and make it as a compelling vehicle, it'll be successful. Basically, takes the argument away from the other companies that they don't make them because people don't want them.

jordanrichard | April 1, 2016

Tesla Bahamas, Elon saying that eventually there may be a need to build Teslas in China doesn't make it a "plan".

Yes, the man on the street will wait because they know full well before placing their reservation that the car won't be on the streets until the end of 2017.

Red Sage ca us | April 6, 2016

bj: +42! Great thread topic! The Ultimate Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything about "Why are Skeptics Never Satisfied by Tesla Motors?"

henrymouni: I only call someone who is skeptical a 'skeptic'. And when someone suggests something idiotic, that brands them an 'idiot'. Just like someone is only a 'bitch' when they are actively engaged at bitching at me. And I am a 'Teslan', thank you very much. ;-)

HiteshBhatt & Chunky Jr.: +21! You each perfectly outline the motivating factors and skewed perspectives of $#0r+s, Bears, Naysayers, ANALysts, Pundits and various other talking heads in regard to Tesla Motors.

martinmitchell | April 6, 2016

HiteshBhatt said, " (like Bolt saying 200, but will do 150 max in real world... my assumption)."
That is an assumption.
The Bolt will have a 60 kWh battery pack.
At 4 miles per kilowatt hour, a rate that's not unreasonable borne out by my Spark EV, that's 240 miles of range.

finman100 | April 6, 2016

I have my doubts 60 kWh is ALL usable. I'd say closer to 55 or even 50 kWh actual. Still decent. But where u gonna charge on long trips? Smaller market for sure. And it does have a hatch...

cpmarino | April 6, 2016

The skeptics will say what the skeptics have always said but what they can't seem to account for is the "why" there is a demand. Nobody is waiting 2-3 years for a $35,000 car, it just doesn't happen. Most of the time, when you need a car, you can't wait at all, and generally cars in the $35,000 range aren't so desirable that you'd wait for them to hit the market.

But people will wait 2-3 years for THIS. This is where the skeptics go off track, because they can't understand the appeal. This isn't just a car, it isn't just an appliance or a means of conveyance, it is the future. This "thing" appeals not only to car folks, not only to environmentalists, not only to the tech savvy, not only to the young, not only to the old, not only to the luddites and not only to the folks who just want it for the cool factor ... this "thing" appeals to ALL of them in some form or fashion. Thus, you can't compare it to anything else in the industry. Nobody is going to wait 3 years for the new Honda Accord, but at last count there are 300,000 people willing to wait that long for THIS. Not just because it's a car. It's not a fad, it's the future. Remember back when people were asking who in their right mind would pay $500 or $600 for a cell phone?

Where Tesla will fail is if they can't deliver, or if there are issues with this like there are with the X. Folks buying the X knew they were on the bleeding edge and were willing to work through falcon doors not opening properly, or gaps or other technology fails. Folks buying these will be far less tolerant, so Tesla should be focused on ensuring the product is rock solid, period. I think they will, and I think we're all going to witness one of those moments in history that you can't really appreciate while it's happening, but will someday look back on as the starting point for a colossal change.

Red Sage ca us | April 6, 2016

cpmarino: +21! Correctomundo! On top of all this, the skeptics keep saying that ~*WE*~ are the ones who are 'irrational'. They say that instead of simply admitting their reluctance, or inability, to accept the rationale. My guess is that they are closely related to those who were absolutely certain in the 1950s that the whole 'Rock & Roll' thing was just a passing fad...

Brian H | April 6, 2016

hitech;
losing, not loosing.

Bighorn | April 6, 2016

A rare siting on paar with Sasqwatch. Hi Brain H!

Chunky Jr. | April 6, 2016

@BigHorn : well played

Chunky Jr. | April 6, 2016

There were a couple articles on Slate about Tesla, and some of the comments were kind of nuts. One guy swore that EVs were worse for the environment than ICE cars because coal is used to power electricity. Numerous people pointed out that coal is only 40% of US production, and dropping, but the guy just ignored that and kept posting again and again that EVs are powered by coal and therefore bad. It's nuts.

Chunky Jr. | April 6, 2016

The logical knots people will tie themselves into to bash Tesla and/or EVs is astounding. It's not the technology - it's their perception of who drives them that agitates them. Basically bashing Tesla and/or EVs is a form of hippie punching.

Red Sage ca us | April 7, 2016

Chunky Jr.: +1! Yup. Some people see the whole thing as a political issue.

They claim that they don't want to see any subsidies... But won't admit when they are actually incentives... And won't allow anyone to clarify the terms.

They claim the company is supported by 'billions of taxpayer dollars'... Yet when you annotate that isn't the case, and offer proof... They refuse to accept the truth.

And even when you make the simple, ordinary, every day argument that it is not a good idea to $#!+ where you sleep... Or, pollute the very air you breathe... They light up a cigarette.

malcolm.hall1932 | April 7, 2016

Cpmarino: Perfect. Red Sage: love it.

Chunky Jr. | April 7, 2016

The people that complain about EV drivers getting a subsidy probably don't complain about deducting their mortgage interest and property taxes from their tax return, and don't realize that the government heavily subsidizes home ownership in the form of these deductions.

dd.micsol | April 7, 2016

LOL-good one Red-loathe those cigs or killing their brain cells with booze.
What they are saying is tesla can't deliver now. Just like X. I hope Elon seriously proves them wrong. I think if he could have cars ready for immediate sale he will sell them.
If you build them-they will sell. Lots of people won't buy something they can't walk away with that second. Because of tech people have lost the ability for patience.

carlk | April 7, 2016

Yes it's been a political issue for many. Those people are wretched from the hard slap on the face for standing on the wrong side of the issue now. It will take the seven stages of grieve for them to get around it but it will eventually happen.

Red Sage ca us | April 7, 2016

The extremely political portion of all this that I simply cannot understand is that for decades I've heard guys 'on both sides of the aisle' proclaim it would be awesome if the US could simply end their dependence on foreign oil. It has only become clear to me in the past couple of years that they say that -- but don't actually believe it. Because they are just politicians blowing hot air. They say things that 'sound good' but aren't willing to do anything about it.

So, along comes Elon Musk. He says, "Y'know...? That sounds good! Let's do it!" And all the politicians pull back from him as if he is the Master of Leprous Intent.

This country's dependence upon oil -- at all -- is a major problem. I checked out the US Energy Information Administration website. Even though there are more and more Natural Gas Turbine power stations, which burn better than coal, the fact that gas is provided from petroleum is unnerving. Elon may have to rethink the Zombie Apocalypse Protocols for Superchargers...

biggestfan | April 7, 2016

Lets not forget the big "subsidy" that was offered to push the sale of Hummers. Tax incentives exist all over the place. Not sure how arguing about their validity to electric cars is....valid.

Haggy | April 7, 2016

Saying that RHD cars are at the end of the delivery queue is misleading. Chances are the queue will keep growing. Tesla will not put off RHD indefinitely. I have no idea when they will get to it, but I'd be surprised if somebody in the US orders a year from now and gets priority over RHD customers who ordered a week ago.

More likely, Tesla will want things to be stable in each area, have staff trained and ready to deliver the vehicles, and have logistics figured out for transportation to the next region, and keep repeating the cycle as things get stable in each previous one. Tesla will sell just as many cars if they start a quarter with ones that get shipped far away and are sold later in the quarter as they will if all deliveries are local.

I have no idea what will trigger the start of RHD cars, but I would imagine demand and logistics will be the biggest factors. Unlike the Model S, where demand needed to be built from the ground up, Tesla will start off with lots of orders from other regions and it might be practical to introduce RHD earlier on.

Red Sage ca us | April 8, 2016

Haggy: +42! Another excellent post. The Ultimate Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything about "How Will Tesla Motors Do It All in a Timely Fashion?"

I believe that for Tesla Motors a lot of their analytics are based upon percentages and time frames. Yes, there is some predetermined threshold of readiness by which they will move from: one Customer to the next, one Region to the next; one Territory to the next. That is what governs the rollout of products and the expansion from one area to the next. As soon as one site is self sustaining, it is time to move on. For a while, that threshold may be six months or more. But I expect the goal will always be to have Deliveries within about three months of order placement.