Why didn't the TSLA stock go up after the battery swap demonstration?

Why didn't the TSLA stock go up after the battery swap demonstration?

Any thoughts?

S4WRXTTCS | June 25, 2013

The lack of instant gratification. I think most people just saw it as a technology demonstration that wouldn't really have much impact in the near term.

agiangone | June 25, 2013

For one, when you are already at 20 Min for 160 Miles there is not much incentive.
Two, the cost to build the swap station is rather high.
Three the stock is already looking at 2014 Model S and Model X production combined; what you need is a revenue generating news rather than an additional cost.

Having said that, I think it is great that the car was built with swap in mind and that, at some point, battery swap centers will be given out in a franchise model. (merely my speculation...)

negarholger | June 25, 2013

If you look at all the anoucements the stock always dipped first. It takes awhile for folks to digest.

Bryan M. | June 25, 2013

I disagree that the cost to build a nationwide swap system is too high. Its just a perception based on majority of sentiment feeling that swap isn't need. I think people will use swap as Tesla sells more cars and increases it market-share. I also think the stock wasn't impacted because most people that follow the company close already new that fast swapping was designed in the car. I think people under estimate the optionality factor of swapping. Only option with my car now is to get more gas lol.

Jamon | June 25, 2013

Because the whole stock market was tanking at the time. I think there was one day there that TSLA was the only stock on my watch list that was up (maybe 1 point or so) while everything else was way down. Plus the market is still digesting the 3x increase in valuation recently - trying to understand if it's really worth $100/share right now.

GeekEV | June 25, 2013

I think it might take a while for people to fully digest the possible implications of the demo.

olanmills | June 25, 2013

^^regarding that article, I think the author makes too many assumptions, and the comparison to Better Place isn't that relevant since Tesla has a lot of customers and potential who desire their cars and want to drive their cars. Better Place was a different business.

carlk | June 25, 2013

It's already priced in. People knew what it will be just not the details.

gibbs | June 26, 2013

Surprised that no one said anything about Ben Bernanke, and his increased tapering rate.

Docrob | June 26, 2013

I think the run up to $100 included a value built in for the 5 big announcements and in the end this announcement was exactly what the market and media was speculating it to be. Therefore much more of a rise was unlikely unless the announcement had been different and better then expected. Had the announcement been unexpectedly disappointing we would ahve seen a fall as the built in value was lost.

Vawlkus | June 26, 2013

The gains for the swap demo offset the drop from the recall.

Docrob | June 26, 2013

All the coverage on the recall I saw indicated that the way Tesla handled it and responded was positive for their reputation not negative.

L8MDL | June 26, 2013

TSLA has become a day trader stock, nothing more. Rich folks playing with their monopoly money. Buyer beware!

carlk | June 26, 2013

@L8MDL Not necessarily true. People who bought at $92 secondary offering, Elon included, are not day traders. I bought Tesla stocks following Peter Lynch's teaching. Google it up if you don't know who he is and what is his investment principles.

Bighorn | June 26, 2013

I'm acquiring TSLA for the long term in my SEP-IRA account, buying on the dips with limit orders. At least over the past few weeks, volatility would have made it pretty easy to make easy money quick trading. It's been years since I've bought an individual stock, but I'm very bullish on TSLA's position in the EV revolution. I read Lynch back in the day, but I stick mostly to index funds these days.

jonesxander | June 26, 2013

I agree with most of you guys on here, but mostly that the cat had already been let out of the bag before the big announcement.

I was really hoping the 2nd car they brought out was a Model X prototype and SHOW that it works on that car too. I pretty much guessed that there would be two cars, but only for the fact that one of them would be the X. We would have seen a nice little payday if that happened.

Drats. Or if Elon said "google" or "apple". Soon enough guys, I'm long on Tesla but I'm not sure if right now is the best time to buy.

Elon already said q2 was going to be a down q, and that they'll be quiet at Tesla motors for a while after the batter swap announcement. Not terribly quiet, lol, beat NC bill, Elon recently says that demand is greater, not sure which article it was.

I have been making a nice little sum taking out of Tesla, and dropping into SCTY, then taking profits and putting it back down on Tesla. Rinse, repeat. :) :) $$$$

justineet | June 26, 2013

RE: seekingalpha article....

The author's assumption about the battery swap economics is not cousher in my opinion. We can go by his own number that the battery pack needs to be swapped 425 times during its lifetime to be profitable. If we give the pack a lifetime of 10yrs, that means the battery needs to be swapped about 43 times a year which is about once every 8 days. There is no reason why that can't happen in carefully selected locations where is demand. Note also for the overall program to be profitable not all batteries have to be swapped at least once every 8 days. What is required is for the average swap to be at least once every 8 days. Some packs might be swapped only once every 10 or 14 days. But other packs in big city environment and very busy long distance routes might be swapped once every 3 or 5 days.

Moreover, even if the the battery Swap program is not a profitable business line on its own, it could be a very good business move if it helps accelerate Telsa electric car adoption by the wider consuming public. If it achieves that, whatever income is lost in the swap business would be more than made up through profits from much increased sales of Tesla cars. It's like ur average local bar giving away free chicken wings or beer as special...he ain't going to make money from the free give aways but he sure makes a bunch of doe overall once patrons order other staff to go along with their freebies!

Sudre_ | June 26, 2013

This kind of announcement isn't something that people who are not Tesla owners or electric car enthusiasts would understand anyway.

The person that handles my IRAs called me the day after the announcement completely confused. These were his questions:

"No one would drive an electric car on a long road trip anyway right?"

"How would you ever get your original battery back?" (like me he never comes home the same way he goes)

"That's going to be awful expensive isn't it?" (shipping battery)

"Well if you can charge in 20 to 30 minutes for free after driving for 3-4 hours, who you use the swap?"

So basically I don't think the big investment firms see the swap as a big thing. Once I told him about the rumored 400-500 mile battery and the rumored quicker charge times the swap idea really just baffled him more. I just don't think there are that many people who drive more than 7 hours a day without stopping for at least an hour or the night.

Sudre_ | June 26, 2013


Brian H | June 27, 2013


All Jewish readers hereby defecate on your head.

justineet | June 27, 2013

@Brian H.....cousher, kosher....tomato,tamaaato....potato, potaaato.

L8MDL | June 27, 2013

Pump and dump today based on takeover rumors - starting to look like Apple more every day, and we all know what happened to Apple stock prices. Be careful!!

jonesxander | June 27, 2013

@justineet, I'm not Jewish but I hardly agree with you on that one.

Like Ron Burgundy says, "When in Rome..."

justineet | June 27, 2013

@jonesxander......all my best friends are Jewish :)))