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Will overseas deliveries result in a domestic order backup?

Will overseas deliveries result in a domestic order backup?

All of the talk of China deliveries, on top of Europe and RHD countries, make me wonder if Fremont production can expand fast enough to keep domestic orders from backing up as a result. From all the good publicity, I'd expect domestic order rate to double.

Analyses, anyone?

Sudre_ | February 11, 2014

I am wondering if Tesla might build at least an assembly plant in China and maybe be able to get the full or at least partial EV credit there.

I thought I read Tesla bought more equipment for the Fremont plant.

I do see the concern about US orders getting back logged. Then again if the US states just want to keep pressuring Tesla to NOT sell in their state then I am all for Tesla selling most of the product in other countries who seem to great them with open arms. That will just make my used S worth a lot more in the US.

Brian H | February 12, 2014

Last Fall, TM warned US buyers that wait times would return to the 2-3 mo range as they filled the European pipeline. Seems to be about what happened.

negarholger | February 12, 2014

There is no sense in building another factory overseas at this point, Fremont is maybe 10% utilized. Battery cell factory is next, it makes no sense to build more cars when you have no batteries.

dramingly | February 12, 2014

I'm sure it already has. When I ordered in August 2013, there were no shipments to Europe or Asia. My car was estimated to be ready in about 4-6 weeks and actually was available earlier than that.. I understand the wait has increased to two to three months now.

jordanrichard | February 12, 2014

I placed my order on Jan 26th, car will arrive (scheduled) here in CT on March 27th.

bevguy | February 12, 2014

It already has. My red 85 S without a lot of options order was finalized Jan 1, US delivery is scheduled for March 12.
That's 3 1/2 months. I understand Tesla slows or stops production for the first couple of weeks of January so that might explain the delay. Tesla is making a lot more cars than a year ago but delivery times in the US are at least as long (probably longer) than they were then.

Tesla is not catching up, supply may be falling even further behind demand.

plusplusjames | February 12, 2014

Really? The production line stops in January for annual maintenance? Maybe they will replace the Pano Roof, Slacker, and Floor Mat Installation machines in time to build my S85 next mont...

Out4aDuck | February 12, 2014

There is definitely an ebb and flow of deliveries every quarter. This is what typical customers have experienced: If you confirmed by mid-Nov, you got your VIN immediately and your car by Dec 31. If you confirmed Nov 15 - Dec 31, you waited a month for your VIN and 2 months for your car. Recently, VIN's are once again being issued on confirmation and cars are still being promised by Mar 31. I expect we'll see this behavior every quarter.

dramingly | February 12, 2014

Bevguy,
I'm pretty sure that's 2 1/2 months.
Regardless, the wait has definitely increased since European shipments began.

cweber | February 12, 2014

I finalized a red S85 on Nov29. VIN30508. Delivery March 5.

LuchoFC | February 12, 2014

I got a call from Tesla delivery last week, my car will be delayed another week so new date is March 10th, order was confirmed on Dec 4th, that makes it 3 months and 1 week. Definitely European orders are backing up US orders. White S60 with pano roof.

TeslaTap.com | February 12, 2014

Typically cars made in the first 1-2 weeks of the month are for international orders, and then USA cars are mostly made in the last weeks of the month. This means for USA orders if you order Jan 1 or Jan 15, you may have the same delivery time.

Part of this is just bunching similar requirements/cars together and part is due to the extra shipping time for international deliveries. High end cars (i.e. P85, P85+) orders get a bit higher priority since it brings in more revenue quicker and is a motivation for users to upgrade the order to get it sooner.

These are not hard-and-fast rules, but more general guidelines. There are lots of other variables too, so don't read too much into this. For example, if the factory expects to be short a part that only goes on the European cars, then it would revert to USA cars. It shouldn't happen, but with hundreds of outside suppliers, it only takes one problem delivery to stop production of one kind of car or a car with a specific option.

So... sit back and relax. You'll quickly forget how long the wait is once your car arrives!

Kimscar | February 12, 2014

My car is slated for the beginning of July so I hope that means with @TeslaTap's comments on manufacture that I will have it at the beginning of July. If only July would get here sooner.

Fasteddie | February 12, 2014

Finalized a metallic Blue S85 on November, 29, 2013, VIN 30527, scheduled for MD delivery March 6, 2014.

bevguy | February 12, 2014

Sorry that is indeed 2 1/2 months January 1 to mid March.
Don't know what I was thinking.

Still delivery delay does not seem to be getting better. But it's hard to be sure since different cars get different delays.
Apparently P models have shorter wait times- a Tesla incentive to get people to load up on the options, the most profitable part of the car. The LuchoFC post suggests 60 kWw buyers may have to wait even longer. And they may batch produce.

Tesla is smart about their selling tactics. The demo's appear to be loaded models, plus apparently Tesla makes a few more similar models "on spec". So if you must have one now, can't wait, you can get it, but it won't be cheap. I've read that the average Tesla S sales price is over $100,000 so most cars must be loaded.

Supply of these cars is creeping up, but demand seems to be creeping up faster. As a TSLA shareholder I wish I knew more about US demand. Because in the US the tech enthusiast part of the market, and probably a good bit of the early early adapter market must be satiated.

tes-s | February 12, 2014

So far, so good. Wait for US cars unchanged in the past 6 months. Of course, that could change at any time - but good for now!

My guess is Tesla is prioritizing "existing" markets, and using remaining capacity for the "newest" markets and generally controlling the startup of new markets to match capacity.

bonaire | February 12, 2014

We have seen numerous end of January orders with delivery dates at the end of March. Time from confirmation to vin # many times seems to be 1-5 days now and 50 or so days from Vin date to delivery date in the US. And this was after a few notes sent to Feb delivery customers for a possible 1 week delay. Maybe Feb is hitting 700/wk? I do think a batch of european and even a few Chinese units were built in January for April delivery.

TeslaTap.com | February 12, 2014

I forgot about Right-hand drive cars. These are supposed to start shipping in March for April deliveries (UK, and others?). This could further slow some shipments, although I'd expect low numbers of RHD to start, but hard to guess Tesla's priorities. Some RHD people have been waiting a long time (years) to get their car.

tes-s | February 12, 2014

Sure it could cause delays in the future, but since they started delivering internationally 5 months ago it has not - Tesla has done an excellent job keeping the US delivery timeframes consistent as they open new markets.

Kimscar | February 12, 2014

I was told today that my P85 order thatis slated for July deliver is scheduled for middle of July but they would see if they could move towards beginning of July. Also told that the vin would be 4 to 5 weeks before delivery.

Bubba2000 | February 12, 2014

As range anxiety fades away with Supercharger deployment in the US/Canada and Western Europe during 2014 + China deployment, expect orders to go up. Panasonic is reopening the battery plants. Once battery production increases, expect the auto production capacity to go up as well. I think lead times to stay in the same range.

By now, Tesla must have optimized the manufacturing process and their supply chain. So with additional batteries, they could speed up production by adding extra shifts, working 6 days and doing 20 hours/day... theoretically produce 1,000-1,200 cars/week. Not too many by auto manufacturing standards.

Panasonic is not going to stand still this year. Their focussing on auto battery production, HVAC, etc and away from consumer electronics. As a result their profits have gone up and so has their stock. I think that Tesla will exceed their 2014 guidance by a wide margin.

tes-s | February 13, 2014

+1 @bubba. Tesla is laser-focused on increasing production. Battery supply is the simple soundbite answer, but I'll bet while they are solving that with Panasonic they are also making sure all other aspects of production are poised to increase as soon as they have batteries - other suppliers, trained personnel, etc.

Even if they can double production every year I believe they would still be challenged to keep up with sales. And Tesla may just be able to do that.

DonS | February 13, 2014

Tesla has the data for reservation in each country, so they know the backlog when they expand into new countries. They can delay new countries if the order influx is beyond expectations. The world market for the S is probably not more than 1000-1200 per week, so production only needs to grow to that level, which should happen later this year. Of course, additional sales will come from the X and then the E.

JZ13 | February 13, 2014

DonS - many believe the world market for the S is 100k+/yr. And the X could sell just as many cars without completely cannibalizing the S.