5454 cars produced in the 2nd quarter!!

5454 cars produced in the 2nd quarter!!

"As reported above, I saw a TV screen that said 5,454 cars produced in the 2nd quarter (why don’t Wall Street analysts go on factory tours?!?) The question is, how many of those are European and Service Center loaners."

as reported from a person doing a factory tour at the TESLIVE event:

Benz | 14 juillet 2013

That's great news. It means that they again produced more than they thought they would.

cfOH | 14 juillet 2013

Yes, there's definitely going to be a discrepancy between "cars sold" and "cars produced." Since, per Elon, demand isn't nearly as big a problem as production capacity is, I suspect the smart analysts should pay more attention to the latter number rather than the former.

Bighorn | 14 juillet 2013

Much better than Motor Trend's use of Autodata projection of 4181!!! | 14 juillet 2013

I think quite a few the cars are for Europe. The sales are going to be delayed for the shipping time, so while they may have made a lot, they can't book all of them. Then again, Europe production may have started more in July, so the hit will not occur until Q3 is done.

eddiemoy | 14 juillet 2013

yeh, but the guidance was for 4500 for North America and 500 for Europe. so looks like they beat their guidance is the key...

justineet | 14 juillet 2013

That could be the real number but Tesla could also be playing some game with the Shorters, with WallStreeters in general....would not be surprised if the number is only for domestic sales....

negarholger | 14 juillet 2013

These are not "sales" numbers, but production numbers. I think it is good assumption that "sales" exceeded the 4500 guidance.

justineet | 14 juillet 2013

Production and sales will be pretty much identical because there is excess inventory as indicated by abouy 4 weeks of waiting time for each order.

justineet | 14 juillet 2013

meant to say there is NO excess inventory......

jjaeger | 14 juillet 2013

European in-transit inventory is not non-negligible.

jjaeger | 14 juillet 2013

or maybe that should be non-negligible...

Tesla4JP | 14 juillet 2013

@jjaeger. Please explain what you mean by that?

negarholger | 14 juillet 2013

That is a good assumption that 1Q and 2Q open deals are about the same and a wash. Big unknown is how many cars are actually on the boat to Europe... 500, 600, 700,...?
Even slightly exceeding guidance plus we are making 500+ cars now (Elon already hinted) will have an effect on the stock market. Best news is the quick selling of the loaners, these added customers could be the difference... especially for the bottom line (Gerome hinted that at Tesla live).

shop | 15 juillet 2013

jjaeger meant that cars produced late in the quarter which are being shipped to Europe cannot be counted as sales yet since they haven't actually been delivered to the customer yet. This may or may not impact 2Q sales numbers. So sometime this year (probably 3Q) there will be an artificially low sales number for a quarter followed by an artificially higher number in the next quarter as the shipping delay works its way through.

carlk | 15 juillet 2013

All hedge funds need is a weapon to hit the shorts hard. The "surprise" whether it's 100 or 500 above expectation will provide just such a weapon. Good luck longs and make sure you hold on to what you own.

Brian H | 15 juillet 2013

I expect the bump to come in Q3; some European cars were being made in June for July shipment, I think. Wonder how soon the Asian flow will start.

dborn | 15 juillet 2013

Brian H - don't forget us right hand drive types! That will also produce a large price hike on the market!

Brian H | 15 juillet 2013

But do your plugs have to be reversed?

negarholger | 15 juillet 2013

Brian - yes, in the RH world the electron flow the other way. I was always wondering in my young years why the old English sports cars had the plus pole of the battery connected to the chassis.

dirkhh | 15 juillet 2013

@Kleist - you should go into standup comedy. NOT.
@Brian H - I'd think so. Having the charger connect on the rear on the passenger side would be rather... odd.

Cattledog | 15 juillet 2013

I think the good part of the story is they likely produced/sold 4,900 1st quarter and at least produced 5,400+ second quarter. So their production output is ramping up. Don't know how much of that is increased efficiency and how much is due to a second shift (confirmed on tour, M-F only).

dborn | 15 juillet 2013

Dirkhh. Don't all your USA Japanese cars have the fuel filler on the left rear? My Merc has its fuel filler on the right rear. So, it seems the fuel filler is on the opposite side to the drivers position depending on country of origin and the side of the road driven on.

negarholger | 16 juillet 2013

@dirkhh - sorry, you forgot to pay your admission.

Anthony H | 16 juillet 2013

Recall, we just learned at Teslive, 300 cars were produced and delivered to service centers as loaners. Subtract those from the production number to get closer to "sales" or "delivered."

JPPTM | 16 juillet 2013

...except that they sell the service loaners as fast as they get delivered to the SC. I was at the Fremont SC this morning and they had 1 loaner available (and had sold/lost one yesterday). The service advisor lamented the problem and said he continually took flak from owners about it.

dirkhh | 16 juillet 2013

@dborn - no, fuel filler access (as in where you put stinky gasoline or diesel) side is brand (and sometimes even model) specific; there are, for example, some Fords with filler left and others with filler right.
But the story is different with an electric car; I usually got gas maybe twice a month, but I plug my Tesla in every day, sometimes more than once.
What the Leaf does (plug in in front) is annoying if you have a rather tight garage as you now need to leave space in front of the car so you can access the plug. The Volt has it right by the driver side A column. And the Tesla Model S by the driver side B column. I'd find it very odd to have those on the passenger side...

justineet | 16 juillet 2013

Here is my prediction just looking at the Vin numbers from buyers.... will just prove to u we r more accurate than these so called experts.....the so called experts have projected 4,100 sales which is below guidance. I am projecting 5,400 to 5,700 just by looking at reported Vin#s of sold cars........write it down...don't forget it!

tobi_ger | 16 juillet 2013

Did you subtract EU cars?

justineet | 16 juillet 2013

This includes EU cars.......I believe the European number is negligible since they came on line late in the quarter. If U want to look the US only, take off about 300 cars from the projection.

Bigtexun | 26 août 2013

For those worried about nuclear waste, consider this... The nuclear fuel in the environment is a present danger where it sits, and creates places named for that danger, such as Poison Canyon. The natural radioactive sources leak into wells, and poison the Oceans. Just like gold and other minerals, the natural ocean cycles cause these poisons to be concentrated, stored in sequestered deposits for millions of years, only to be exposed by erosion and washed back into the ocean. This cycle has been going on for a long time. What Man has done is accelerate the erosion process, concentrate the poisons into a usable form, then produce waste in need of sequestration. We have not created a new problem, we are only aware of a problem that has existed since the birth of life on this planet. The problem isn't that we don't know what to do, the problem is that we have political problems preventing us from doing it right. And even if we ARE able to do it right, there is a stigma attached because of past mistakes, as well as politics.

I think nuclear power is an excellent source of energy, but the governments of the earth are too immature to deal with it, or any other form of energy. We are too immature to survive as a species, given where we are in consuming our resources, and progressing our society. Hopefully we can slow our damage to the planet long enough to mature as a global society while we are still viable. As an "advanced" space faring society, we have many challenges if we are to win out over our eventual extinction. And our energy culture is one of the first challenges, one of many. Cars like the Tesla are part of the solution, but only if the other parts of the solution are developed.

The Author of the article has his numbers wrong, and his logic can be questioned. But there is a thread of truth to some of the issues, and those issues need continual support to be successfully addressed.

Bigtexun | 26 août 2013

Sorry, posted to the wrong thread by accident.

Brian H | 27 août 2013

Read up on the Hormesis Hypothesis. Radioactivity was much higher in the past, and we're adapted to that.