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I hope, many of the short positons have cleared there positions. If Tesla get's positive in end of november, the stock should rocket in the sky

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2012/10/03/elon-musk-says-tesla-...

Teoatawki | 4 octobre 2012

No one seems to be reporting any change in TSLA short positions. Without all this short interest I don't think an announcement that TSLA is net positive for a given month would push up the price significantly, as it is probably priced into the stock already. But if all the shorties start bailing out, the sky is the limit!

KevinR.co.us | 4 octobre 2012

@Teoatawki From your keyboard to God's ears.

Steve841 | 4 octobre 2012

All I can say is I've been in and out twice and have covered the cost of my sig perf upgrade.

Round three started last week....

dahtye | 4 octobre 2012

I haven't taken the plunge in purchasing TSLA stock yet. I'm wondering if it will dip at all. I'd like to take delivery of my Model S first, then buy stock (I expect to take delivery in the next two weeks).

One thing that worries me whether the stock price is inflated already....certainly, I'd like to see it soar, but I'm sure most of us would like that - it would push the shorts off the cliff. But will the stock really do that?

I've seen stocks with high valuations while the companies are losing money, then once they become positive, other metrics kick in (such as p/e) which make the stock look like a poor investment and the stock drops.

I'm also not one to play the derivatives of puts and calls. I'm sure there's money to be made, but I'd rather sit on the sidelines - especially since I'm dropping $120K for this car.

olanmills | 4 octobre 2012

Yeah I really think that those of youe expecting the stock to skyrocket if sales and deliveries go smoothly should be prepared for disappointment. The caveat is that maybe if all of the shorters tried to unwind at once, it would cause a spike.

However, smooth sales and deliveries would probably make the stock rise steadily, not skyrocket, because that's performance that is all "part of the plan" it's expected. I think that means over a long period of time, if Tesla became more and more successful, those who are holding for years and years could make huge gains. For the stock to skyrocket though, I think Tesla would have to announce something positive that was also completely unexpected.

Sudre_ | 4 octobre 2012

At some point don't the shorts have to act?

mrspaghetti | 4 octobre 2012

I completely agree thatTSLA is a long-term hold, not something I'd do options with. I expect it to perform similar to Microsoft from 1987 to around 2000. Buy now and you're in at the 1987 price. Hang on for 10-15 years and you've done very well, indeed.

mrspaghetti | 4 octobre 2012

But if Elon goes to Mars I'm selling...

geramu | 5 octobre 2012

It's a hell of a stock choice you're making when you have to factor the odds of the CEO moving to Mars in your buy/sell decision.

Runar | 5 octobre 2012

olanmills, I'd say not that much if factored in at the moment.

When 1/3 of the stocks are shorted, all that is factored in is Tesla Motros becoming a failure and going out of buisness. Those with a short position seem to live in denial at the moment..

If the stock stars a gentle climb, then those 1/3 need to cover their short eventually.. and that wont be possible without the stock going sky high.

Baltimore Tesla | 5 octobre 2012

Does anyone know what Goldman (Tesla's investment banker) is using for 2013 or 2014 earnings or revenue estimates? That would be helpful in calculating valuation parameters.

mrspaghetti | 5 octobre 2012

@geramu: Yes, TSLA is definitely not an ordinary company. Nor does it have an ordinary CEO.

From my perspective that is a good thing, at least in this case.

Brian H | 5 octobre 2012

Anyone know when most/many of these shorts come due/require the shorties to buy?

mrspaghetti | 5 octobre 2012

@Brian H: Not sure - is that even publicly available information?

The Froq | 5 octobre 2012
mrspaghetti | 5 octobre 2012

@The Froq:

Interesting. It appears all the shorts have 30 days or less to cover.

asblik | 5 octobre 2012

tesla.mrspaghet you're funny, I can appreciate good joke!

mrspaghetti | 5 octobre 2012

@h8tow8: Not sure what I said that was funny, but thank you :)

Is 30 days always the limit when shorting? I'm ignorant about shorting stock - if I think something's going down and I'm confident enough to put money on it I buy put options. I've never shorted stock per se.

mrspaghetti | 5 octobre 2012

Agreed, he's got it right.

kalikgod | 5 octobre 2012

@tesla.mrspaghet

I think that 26 days means that if the shorts bought back at the average daily volume, it would take them 26 days to buy back all their positions. As far as the actual expirations, I think that can be as long as 1.5 - 2 year depending on the option.

Any finance professions on here can give a real answer on when most of the shorts will have to cover by?

Brian H | 5 octobre 2012

Most of those must already have expired. They total over 500 million shares, far greater than the entire float. Looks to me that only the latest count, of 30 million, is still open.

Nicu.Mihalache | 5 octobre 2012

30M is the actual short interest; those that are not covered are carried out into the next period - makes no sense to add them. Shorts have to pay interest for those shares. The "days to cover" is exactly what kalikgod said.

Since November last year, retail investors (like you and me) cannot short Tesla, since there are no shares available to borrow (Elon hinted that they are at more or less at max). Large funds and hedgies probably pay a premium to be able to short (or simply have priority among friends). They may close old positions and open new ones, so there is no hard limit in time. But as most are pros, they should set stops (limits for the loss). So the actual limit is the price level.

The new 6-7M shares on the market may give them a bit of air, as some percentage of those will become available to be borrowed. But once the ramp-up is approaching the 400 / week target, the pressure will break even the hardest bear skulls.

Brian H | 5 octobre 2012

So about 500 million shares are overdue or waiting to be purchased? That does not compute.

pilotSteve | 7 octobre 2012

"become available to be borrowed" = owners of those shares selling put options??