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What will be the biggest factor in resale value 5 years from now?

What will be the biggest factor in resale value 5 years from now?

Beyond the basic model; SIG, P, 85/60 and cosmetic condition, what do you think will be the biggest issue that will effect the resale value the most in the future? Given all of the concerns from owners about babying the battery and range anxiety in the general public, I predict that miles driven/rated range will be a big factor.

Mathew98 | 21 octobre 2013

Would my MS have the add on option to make it fly or into a submersible in 5 years?

I only have the S60 but I've never ran it down below 50 miles yet despite multiple weekend chauffeuring duties across town. What range anxiety?

I plan on keeping it for at least 10 years.

Gizmotoy | 21 octobre 2013

Same. Max rated miles will be a big one because it's something you can use to compare battery status between cars.

Beyond the typical miles and options, I think that'll be something buyers are looking for.

Gizmotoy | 21 octobre 2013

Oops. *will be looking for*

bryceha | 21 octobre 2013

I predict that resale value for the Model S will be as good as any other car of it's value, UNLESS one or more of the following happen:

Some wacko congressman makes a federal case over the big screen and connectivity of the car, linking it to distracted driver accidents like the one in Laguna Beach (not sayin' that was the cause; just saying that somebody with their own agenda could make it their 'cause'). This could distract the company, and perhaps negatively effect the perceived long term viability of the company.

The future, lower priced Tesla is so popular that people will choose to buy the new, less expensive thing vs. a 5 year old Model S.

Problems with the drivetrain (motors that make too much noise for example) could suck company resources to the extent that Tesla replaces them for free, or could hurt the reputation of the company and the car if Tesla does not.

dramingly | 21 octobre 2013

I don't think it will be so much the range of our cars, but the range of other electric cars. If battery technology improves and 200+mile range electric cars become common, then the value of second-hand Teslas will decrease. The Model E will also affect resale value of used Model S's, I'm sure.

Out4aDuck | 21 octobre 2013

I think the biggest risk to resale value would be a significant reduction in battery cost.

LEvans | 21 octobre 2013

I agree. The biggest issue I see affecting the resale value would be the cost of the battery replacement.

TeslaOR | 21 octobre 2013

I agree with most of the comments on newer technology decreasing the value. The MS is like a computer where newer technology advancements quickly depreciates the value of older models.

PaceyWhitter | 21 octobre 2013

Just like an ICE, it will be miles. As most have shown the biggest corallary to dimished range is miles drivin, and other non-battery parts would have greater wear with higher milage.

Captain_Zap | 21 octobre 2013

I think the greatest impact will be the availability of GEN III.

Bighorn | 21 octobre 2013

I think the greatest impact will be whether Tesla Motors exists.

Kaboom | 21 octobre 2013

Yeah, the battery improvements a couple years down the line could very well hurt resale values of current MS owners.

On the one hand, we want battery power, weight and size to improve, but if it does......it will outdate current owners cars more rapidly. Something i thought lond and hard about before buying.

Unlike ICE cars, where mpg remains fairly steady over the years.

But i guess thats one reason we get those big government rebate checks today! Within a year or two those will be gone.

jonlivesay | 21 octobre 2013

Battery advancements over the next five years will be big for resale

AmpedRealtor | 21 octobre 2013

The biggest factor for resale in five years will be the other products that will be available in five years. The world isn't standing still while Tesla sells cars. Yes, battery capacity will surely be important, but maybe not so much if consumers have similar vehicles with higher range from which to choose at half the price. We don't know what the future holds.

Gizmotoy | 21 octobre 2013

@Kaboom: Unlike ICE cars, where mpg remains fairly steady over the years.

MPG may stay relatively stable, but range varies greatly based on tank size. The problem is that by ICE standards, we still have relatively small "tanks," so battery capacity & range will continue to be driven upwards rapidly as the technology matures.

This is why I said rated range will be the main drivers of resale value, and others hit on this. If our range degrades to 220 miles, and a brand new Gen III (or BMW or whatever) can meet that for half what we paid for our car, then our resale may suffer if the cars are otherwise similar.

AmpedRealtor | 21 octobre 2013

Don't forget, Model S 2.0 will be shipping by the time Gen 3 comes out. The biggest factor in our Model S values may be Model S 2.0.

church70 | 21 octobre 2013

Not geting my car in 5 yrs : )

TeslaOR | 21 octobre 2013

I suspect that we will be able to replace (not necessarily swap) our batteries for the latest technology in the future. It may be cheaper AND more capacity than today.

AmpedRealtor | 21 octobre 2013

Not necessarily. Model S 2.0 may use a completely different form factor battery as part of a re-design. It likely will not share the some connection locations, the thickness may be more or less, probably lighter, etc. Tesla has been leery of making any statements about the future availability of higher capacity packs, and I believe that's for a reason. Such an offering may not be anywhere on Tesla's roadmap, at least not until we get to Model S 2.0.

jfewins | 21 octobre 2013

pardon the ignorance, but what is the significance of miles driven/rated range?

odellj | 21 octobre 2013

Agree with the factors mentioned above but would also include the price of gasoline. If gas (miraculously) drops below $2.00 per gallon, it would undermine part of the value proposition. If we have the same scenario as Norway--$10/gal, it would quickly become a best seller!

Olof | 21 octobre 2013

@OP: Answer to your question: Beyond the obvious cosmetic condition I think these factors will impact the value of the individual MS:

1: number of owners, accidents, flooding and other material events.
2: miles driven
3: range at max charge

LEvans | 21 octobre 2013

What is the current cost of battery replacement?

Gizmotoy | 21 octobre 2013

@jfewins:
Miles driven: good indicator of condition of the vehicle, just like in an ICE
Rated range: useful down the road for comparison to whatever new EVs become available

Brian H | 21 octobre 2013

AR;
Elon agrees with the 6-7 yr Model upgrade gap, with a mid-term partial mod. So 1.5 by 2015, 2.0 by 2017-8.

DallasTxModelS | 21 octobre 2013

I imagine the biggest factor would be the going price of a new one at that time.

jat | 21 octobre 2013

I agree with others that Tesla's overall success and the existence of other 200mi-range EVs (including the GenIII) and the relative features/cost between them will be the biggest impact.

Personally, I think if you are worried about resale value you are buying the wrong car - there are just too many variables that could have a big impact. I expect to drive it until the wheels fall off (other cars I have driven for 8, 16, 6 and 1.5 [the LEAF which my wife now drives] years), so I don't care about the resale value at all. All I need is to get 8-10 years out of it with no more then 30% degradation in battery capacity, and since I have the extended warranty as long as Tesla is around I shouldn't have any problem doing that.

church70 | 21 octobre 2013

I just got a 2012 LEAF sl 6000km on it for $20,000 so the resale value not so good for it was a $40,000 car in Canada lol but thats car for you baby

Bikezion | 21 octobre 2013

There are a lot of factors to consider when speculating the future value of something. Cars depreciate pretty hard over 5 years time. I think the model S will do at least as well as its petrol competitors. If gas goes up, the model S stays a bit higher. If the model E is twice as good of a car at half the price, that could very negatively affect the used model S. I think in 5 years the eletric technology will be proven to be superior, and the petrol cars resale will be very poor. Of course there is the problem of the federal reserve notes losing the rest of their value (the last 5% will be the worst!), and that would have negative ripple effects throughout the world. That could very well make a car that charges at home from solar all the more valuable.

jat | 22 octobre 2013

@church70 - there was a huge price cut after the 2012 model, plus 2013 and later have a bunch of upgrades, so that is a big reason for the drop. Also, I don't know what tax credits are in Canada, but in the US you get at least $7500 in tax credits that make buying a 1-day old used car worth much less than a new one even ignoring depreciation.

At least in GA with a $5k state tax credit, you could have gotten a brand new LEAF SL totally maxed out for only about $5k more - that doesn't seem bad for 2 years and not having the faster charger, better heater, better range, upgraded wheels, leather seats, and all-around cameras.

renwo S alset | 22 octobre 2013

As far as the future goes there are 2 other factors regarding Tesla value.
Infrastructure. Tesla is so far ahead of other manufacturers that they probably will never be able to catch up. Tesla will franchise this and new EV's from other manufacturers will reflect this cost, but we are already part of it.
Dealer Network. Other EV manufactures will have to include the costs of distribution. Such as dealer profits, sales commissions, staff real estate and all the other costs of their obsolete dealer network business model. Any other EV than a Tesla will carry a additional dealer cost of about 30%. There was no dealer cost for the Tesla's we have already purchased.
The only thing that will drive down the costs of currently owned Teslas will be newer Teslas with better features and lower costs.
Plus, the is always Elon's resale guarantee.

Chuck Lusin | 22 octobre 2013

@WEB_SRFR

"What is the current cost of battery replacement?"

Zero, warranty replacement. Good for 8 years, 125 on a 60 and unlimited miles on a 85.

Sailor | 22 octobre 2013

Does anyone cling to the chance that early adopters (anyone with a model S right now) are holding a collectors item?

TeslaOR | 22 octobre 2013

I think there will be some collector value in the early SIGs and P versions, and marginal collector value in other models. But in general, a MS is mostly a new technology product at this point, so if innovation happens in battery/charging/propulsion, the value of MS' will follow a PC/TV depreciation curve.

PBEndo | 22 octobre 2013

Another good question is- What will the value of a competing ICE be in five years?

If Tesla continues to win mind and market share over the next 5 years, what will happen to the value of a BMW M5 on the secondary market? It is likely that the Tesla will be viewed as far more reliable and far cheaper to operate. The BMW will look ancient.

Supply and demand dictate price. The supply will still be low (many owners plan to keep their MS for over 5 years) and the demand may be relatively high if the Tesla's hold up well.

church70 | 22 octobre 2013

@ jat@jaet.org

US 2013 LEAF $36,740 Excludes tax, title, license and options. MSRP. Dealer sets actual price so $36,740 + tax ?

http://www.nissanusa.com/buildyournissan/packages/index

CA 2013 LEAF MSRP* $40,388 + tax 13% in ontario - $8500 in tax credits in ontario

Destination & Handling is $2000 in Canada not $850 like in the us

http://www.nissan.ca/buildyournissan/colors/index

SO 5K MORE NO

church70 | 22 octobre 2013

MS 1/3 IN 7YR SO THAT 100K MS IS NOW 35K MAYBE 40K .