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When will autonomous vehicles be fully viable ?

When will autonomous vehicles be fully viable ?

A key promise of autonomous vehicles is that they will be much safer both for occupants and others (walking, bicycling, other cars). When will this happen?

My guess is a Tesla will be viably safer doing exit to exit on a motorway or interstate within 1 to 3 years.

Overall and on all or most roads? 40 to 50 years? According to various research papers an autonomous car will need to accurately and properly handle all situations in a variety of circumstances at least 99.999% of the time to equal current U.S. drivers (and who are often distracted). About 99.9995% of the time to equal EU drivers. Besides things like people suddenly walking in to the road they often cite things like a deer off to the side getting ready to run across.

I'd guess that Tesla (and others?) constantly uploading hyper accurate lane layouts will eventually deal with problems of being able to see lanes during snow? Is GPS accurate enough for that to work without seeing actual paint?

Something I thought about is avoiding tire flattening stuff like nails, glass, or potholes. How soon will AV's be able to successfully do this?

Linus | 17 octobre 2015

Actually, most of the intelligence needed for autonomous driving is inside the camera(s). This video shows the CEO of MobilEye, the company developing the camera for a number of car makers, including Tesla. He claims that autonomous driving will be possible in about three years time.

https://youtu.be/kp3ik5f3-2c

He also said that for autonomous driving in cities you will need three front cameras with different depths/angles.

1LuckyGuy | 17 octobre 2015

Soon.

tezzla.SoCal | 17 octobre 2015

Knowing Elon; he'll say "several months"

Salute | 17 octobre 2015

autonomous vehicles will not be fully viable until the insurance companies sort out liability. When something bad happens, who pays? Driver or maker of software? Currently there is too many "what ifs" such as software freeze due to hardware failure, etc.

marcel.saucier | 17 octobre 2015

Full AP ? I'll be dead...

Bighorn | 17 octobre 2015

Elon approximately said 3 years and then another 3 years or so for regulatory approval.

Solarwind | 17 octobre 2015

At present it may be good enough to lure me into a false sense of security.

marcel.saucier | 17 octobre 2015

OK, I will be serious... - even the CAT-II & CAT-III Automatic Landing System (ILS - for big airplanes) wont work in harsh conditions (snow storms, heavy rain, etc.). Was pilot before...

So dreaming of an fully operational (and reliable) AP will never happens. As long as sensors & markers are not part of the infrastructure (traffic lights, roads, etc), not only part of the car.

But a full new 'car driving' system, in 100 or 200 years from now, will make 'driving'... just boring. If ever we call this 'driving'.

So, for those fans of AP, be careful...

It is a loose loose game. With politics & lot of hype around it. Nothing more.

It is like we were saying in the '60: will work 4 or 3 days per week in the future... Still waiting for it.

marcel.saucier | 17 octobre 2015

And when governments will force us to use AP - I'll stop buying cars...