Submitted by Opafiets on Sat, 2015-10-17 09:15
A key promise of autonomous vehicles is that they will be much safer both for occupants and others (walking, bicycling, other cars). When will this happen?
My guess is a Tesla will be viably safer doing exit to exit on a motorway or interstate within 1 to 3 years.
Overall and on all or most roads? 40 to 50 years? According to various research papers an autonomous car will need to accurately and properly handle all situations in a variety of circumstances at least 99.999% of the time to equal current U.S. drivers (and who are often distracted). About 99.9995% of the time to equal EU drivers. Besides things like people suddenly walking in to the road they often cite things like a deer off to the side getting ready to run across.
I'd guess that Tesla (and others?) constantly uploading hyper accurate lane layouts will eventually deal with problems of being able to see lanes during snow? Is GPS accurate enough for that to work without seeing actual paint?
Something I thought about is avoiding tire flattening stuff like nails, glass, or potholes. How soon will AV's be able to successfully do this?