$8.5B in Q3 and Q4?

$8.5B in Q3 and Q4?

Elon’s post today saying that it would take about 6 months to fill all orders for AWD got me thinking. If we assume 5,000 cars per week for 26 weeks, that puts an estimate of AWD pre-orders at 130,000 cars. If we again assume that the average AWD car is around 65K (with Performance perhaps around 70K-75K, but far more standard AWD perhaps around 60K), that would put Q3 and Q4 revenue from Model 3 alone at just shy of $8.5B!

I realize there are a lot of assumptions in this post, but it seems many think the pricing of a performance model will be in the ballpark, but probably south, of the BMW M3, and it’s probably reasonable to think that an AWD car is a decent uptick from the current first production car - especially if AWD and White Interior are both upcharges.

I guess the biggest impact to these assumptions would be if AWD also has a standard battery or non-premium interior option, but I somewhat doubt they would introduce so many additional different configurations.

Am I dreaming?

Finoguy | 11 mai 2018

Assuming total production for Q3-4 is 130,000 (5,000/week), not all of those will be AWD—there will be a mix of RWD and AWD. Still, even if the “average” selling price is $55k (many more, many less) that’s over $7B for those two quarters.