Anyone have an idea of how many current orders are for Dual Motor?
Seeing alot of RWD getting pushed out quickly so have to think a decent chunk are for AWD P/non-P
He said 50% on the quarterly call.
good for Telsa but not so good for those of us waiting on one...
We do not know how many orders are in just reservations so assume if half of 400k reservations are international and waiting for standard that would that puts 200k in order and 100k in Dual...also assume 100% of 5k production is Dual than thats 20 weeks (5 months).
alot of assumptions...
@tpata100 Have to assume people holding out for short range too
@tpata100 Which means not all AWD orders will be in Sep - Nov. I'm a bit worried
@roberttown Not if a reasonable percentage of people are waiting on short range AWD. We have LR AWD order but will almost certainly order a 2nd SR AWD eventually. We don’t know how many of those reservation holders are SR. My guess is more than we think n
Yeah, I think it's a stretch to say that 50% are US Long Range holders and 50% are All International and US Standard Range. I would imagine that US Long Range (RWD, AWD, P) is more like 20-30% tops. But again, all conjecture.
Tesla still says 2-4 months if you order today with no prior reservation or anything, and they still show the $7500 credit in the price. You'd think they would not be making that representation any more if they weren't confident on the delivery timeline. On the other hand, they've tweaked the order agreement such that the $2500 is refundable until much closer to delivery, so maybe they are fine making promises and just expecting to return the $2500 if they don't deliver on time.
Tesla seems to be quite adaptable with their production if it means getting more revenue faster - I imagine they're working hard to balance the RWD/AWD output ratio to match the demand.
The tracking data for orders was 15% AWD, 3.3% PAWD, and the rest were RWD.
Most RWD’s have been delivered, but it is an open question what Elon meant in the call:
50% of all current reservation conversions were a Dual Motor model (which would be about 50k)
50% of current outstanding orders are Dual Motor: this is a smaller number.
We just don’t know, but we have some time before we have to make the decision about switching to RWD if it looks like we are going to miss the tax credit.
I don’t think that will be the case though.
Musk and the VP of sales both commented about this, in the conference call and the point was made by both at different times during the discussion that the orders being placed **now** [that were never reservations to start with] and reservations [being/had been] converted to orders now are favouring AWD over RWD.
This higher mix has obviously surprised them both.
The implication was clear from them both because of the way they emphasised this was what the situation was right now, but that this ratio can and would change at some point in the future.
[Which I read as return to a larger proportion of lower priced RWD orders].
Much of the assumed breakdown between AWD and RWD back in the days before you could order the RWD was due to the assumed higher cost and likely bundling of more expensive options with the AWD models than just AWD.
[many assumed you could only get a AWD P model initially, so when AWD+PUP was offrered that caught many out].
As it turned out, you can order a AWD in a similar config to the LR+PUP RWD, for only a small increment more in price. I suspect this has meant a lot of people jumped for the AWD model at that point due to its perceived handling advantages over RWD. Even though the RWD has better official mileage - I don't see those who wanted AWD switching back now lower mileage is confirmed.
But it may deter some RWD'ers from upgrading to AWDs. But those "on the fencers" are a small portion of the overall mix
So I'd assume the higher number, not the lower.
What would the SR Dual Motor 0 to 60 be?
Hrm, I will have to go re-listen, that wasn’t readily apparent though the surprise at the mix clearly was. Add 50% of the post 6/26 configurations were Dual Motor configs would be another option.
We did have some people switch based on the efficiency numbers: I remember 3-4 distinct cases (documented probably in marinergreg’s two posts if you are curious) which means it was a thing on the forums, but I don’t know if most consumers are as well informed as on this site.
You are right on the price normalization, but the sticking point was exactly how many Dual Motor configs were out there: it looked to be just over 18% total of the people that posted to the main tracking spreadsheet and I can’t see how we got that number so wrong but what is clear that I have a wait, and while I probably get it before October math on delivery needs to keep getting done for me and my theoretical tax credit as at some point the car just gets uneconomical even with the supercharging benefit to the P.
@ebm nobody except maybe Tesla knows: we haven’t even gotten a good run in a LR AWD yet 0-60 to my knowledge.
And that should be end of October in my case heh.
This is from the Yahoo finance transcript. (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-tsla-earnings-conferenc...)
Robin Ren, Tesla, Inc. - VP of Global Sales and Delivery 
Yes. So starting from end of June, when we opened the configurator and invited the existing reservation orders, we saw tremendous excitement and response from our customers. As Deepak just mentioned, we actually see more orders for the all-wheel drive dual-motor car and performance cars combined than the rear-wheel drive cars.
I think a lot of reservation holders were in the same boat as me. Given the missed delivery timelines, I put 1st delivery (Long Range, RWD) as my preference as I was concerned on the timeline for getting the rebate. However, one they opened up orders, they basically said the same timeline for both the RWD and the AWD. So I switched over to AWD once the configurator became available.