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Is there any chance FSD will really work with current hardware?

Is there any chance FSD will really work with current hardware?

A few days ago I was in the Colorado mountains on I-70 where it was about 35F and lightly snowing. I was using TACC in my AP1 car. About 15 minutes into the drive, a warning popped up saying front radar was unavailable and it shut off TACC. The cars in front of me disappeared from the display and the TACC and autosteer icons disappeared. I presume this was due to a the wet snow sticking to the front bumper area, blocking the signal.

As I descended in elevation and the temps climbed, about 20 minutes later, the front sensors and display returned to normal.

So what is the plan for FSD? Will it only work in good weather? Is there a different sensor config in AP2.5 that includes redundancy for this kind of situation?

murphyS90D | 23 mai 2019

FSD will never exist for AP1 cars. Radar signals are absorbed by water, especially at the power levels permitted in automobile radar. One reason they are low is so the legs of a pedestrian don't get burned while crossing in front of the car. That's why submarines use sonar. Sonar requires the water to conduct the sound waves.

I expect FSD will make a determination if conditions permit moving. If they don't, the car is not going to move. People attempt to drive in conditions when they shouldn't. Witness the 50 car pileups on a totally fogged in highway.

BlufftonBob | 23 mai 2019

Several times in the last few weeks I received a warning that NOA would not be available because of inclement weather ahead. Then NOA switched back to normal autopilot. After passing through a rainstorm NOA returned. At no time did TACC shut off. Since TACC stayed on I presume that the radar was still operating effectively. MS 100D, 2019.12.1.2, AP2.5

rsrivast | 23 mai 2019

FSD can never work with AP2.5, this is publicly accepted by Elon / Tesla. Hence the big push for new MCU board built around the new Tesla neural net cpu.

SamO | 23 mai 2019

My guess based on previous statements:

1. Camera obscuration/radar obscuration will be solved with greater frame-rate and better computing.

2. Terrible weather where humans might marginally drive will probably give way to black-out periods, during intense snow or hurricane force winds.

3. Geofenced areas where these conditions are rare will have uninterrupted service, 24-7.

ALSET | 23 mai 2019

I pick up my refreshed LR Model S tomorrow with the new drive train but I didn't order FSD. Will my car have the latest hardware if I pay for the FSD later on? I'm confused with all the AP 2.0, 2.5, 3.0 and MCU 1+2 labels. I really wish the invoice paper listed each one out.

carlk | 23 mai 2019

Yes your car already has HW3 containing new Tesla AI chips. You'll only need to purchase the FSD option to activate the software.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autopilot-hardware-3-model-s-x/

Elon also confirmed that in the 4/22 event.

carlk | 23 mai 2019

Here is a brief summary of what people know and what I understand:

AP1 has Mobileye camera stake but Tesla added its own radar. It has Tesla developed autopilot software running on Nvidia GPU.

AP2 has Tesla camera/vision stake running Tesla neural net on Nvidia PX 2 GPU.

AP2.5 has upgraded radar. Secondary nodes of PX 2 were enabled for redundancy.

AP3 has HW3 board with Tesla's new AI processors. It is needed to run latest FSD neural net software which is NOT released to the public yet. Both AP2 and AP2.5 will be able to run FSD software by swap out the ECU (not MCU which is for screen UI) board with the new one.

barrykmd | 23 mai 2019

SamO | May 23, 2019
2. Terrible weather where humans might marginally drive will probably give way to black-out periods, during intense snow or hurricane force winds.

This was not terrible weather by any means. Light snow flurries, melting on contact with the road,but wet and sticky, so it obscured the radar because it stuck to the front bumper.