FUD vs Fact

FUD vs Fact

Bloomberg May 22, 2019
Some highlights from the article:

As global auto sales slow after a decade of growth, carmakers are girding for a deeper downturn by slashing payrolls. From China to the U.K., Germany, Canada and the U.S., companies have announced at least 38,000 job cuts in the past six months. It may be just the beginning: Daimler AG’s departing CEO, Dieter Zetsche, on Wednesday warned sweeping cost reductions are ahead to prepare for unprecedented industry upheaval.

The industry is right now staring down the barrel of what we think is going to be a significant downturn,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said at a four in Detroit on Tuesday, adding that the pace of decline in China “is a real surprise.”

What carmakers are doing:
* cutting shifts
* closing factories globally
* trying to find money to pivot to electric and self-driving vehicles
* laying people off; for example, Ford announce a 10% reduction (7k) in salaried workers recently
* higher tariffs are hurting, a trade group representing 12 of the largest foreign and domestic automakers warned it puts 700k American jobs at risk

Announced Job Reductions:
* Ford 7,000
* Nissan 4,500
* Honda 3,500
* Daimler 10,000
* Tesla n/a
* Fiat 1,500
* Ford another 5,000 in Germany
* Ford’s China JV n/a
* Audi n/a
* Tesla 3,000 (last January)
* Jaguar 4,500
* Nissan 700 (US)
* GM 14,000 (plus several factory closings)

Global light vehicle sales fell 0.5% in 2018 to 94.8 million, the first drop since 2009; Morgan Stanley projects another 0.3% drop this year, but as sales figures come in it’s worse than that so far.

Auto affiliated lenders have been handing out subprime auto loans, defaults are 7% and rising.

You look at market segments, while overall sales are down EV sales are exploding. Global EV sales were 224k through March compared to 141k in 2018 for the first quarter. Tesla is leading the growth. EV sales in the US were basically flat the first 3 months, but M3s are pouring into Europe and China now. Musk’s email last week says Tesla has chance to deliver more cars in Q2 2019 than in Q4 2018, Tesla’s best quarter ever.

Facts. The FUD says Tesla is on the verge of bankwuptcy. Other auto stocks are down just a little. Tesla is building factories while Ford et al are closing theirs. Tesla’s layoffs pale compared to the others. Tesla still employs 45,000 people where the layoffs have been 38k.

Yet it’s Tesla’s stock that is absolutely being hammered by the shorts while Ford/GM stocks are down only a little.

What’s wrong with the short's picture in light of all this?

andy.connor.e | 28 mai 2019

if you can say something that sounds reasonable, you could make anyone think the world is ending at the end of the month.

Tesla-David | 28 mai 2019

The shorters & Wall Street Analyst's and Tesla haters don't have a clue about Tesla and its mission. They sweep the ICE manufacturer's problems under the rug and act like Tesla is the problem. I despise them and their disgusting lies and misrepresentations about Tesla. Anyone who owns one of these fantastic cars know better. I firmly believe in Tesla and am holding long. I believe that Tesla should just focus on performing and producing their incredible products, and eventually everything will be ok. With the incredible Model 3 sales performance, Semi, Model Y, Model S & X refresh, Roadster 2 coming out there is so much to be excited about. May the short sellers be burned, and I am hopeful that the next quarters earnings report will get things turned around.

andy.connor.e | 28 mai 2019

I dont think anyone is ignorant. I think people are deliberately trying to send a negative message for their personal benefit. I dont think it has anything to do with truth, i think it has everything to do with saying anything that you can to make the stock go down so that they benefit financially. | 28 mai 2019

You also have to remember that there are tremendous forces that want Tesla to fail. Obviously competitors such as other automakers are upset that they can't compete in any segment Tesla resides. Of course dealers hate all EVs, as it reduces their service cash cow and thier easy ability to scam customers. Many others are also aligned against Tesla. You have the massive oil and gas industry, clueless politicians, unions, suppliers not chosen by Tesla and those in the anti-environment/anti-global warming groups. It's truly amazing with all this against Tesla, that Tesla continues to do so well.

andy.connor.e | 28 mai 2019

A truly All-Inclusive package of FUD

byegates | 28 mai 2019

Tesla China Factory start taking reservations 5/31

DonS | 28 mai 2019

We can say Tesla stock has gotten hammered in the short term, but realistically, it was overvalued based on projected growth and earnings. Today's valuation matches more what I expect, at least until there is additional concrete news to raise or lower expectations.