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Don’t want to be a Debbie Downer, but...

Don’t want to be a Debbie Downer, but...

Bloomberg is reporting 42% of ultra rich families have cashed in their equities amyotrophic sit on mountains of cash. They’re gloomy saying the markets will crash and then flatline for a long time. The crash they expect is supposed to occur by the end of the year with recession to follow in 2020. The Germans will announce their economy is already in recession within a week or two. Flash economic numbers for the 3rd quarter are awful.

They might be right. Numbers coming in from all over the world are mostly dismal.

What does this mean for Tesla shareholders? If the entire equity markets collapse TSLA will not be immune to gravity. The good news is Tesla’s sales continue to climb while the rest of the industry (ICE cars) is tanking. Once Tesla finds its gravity bottom, I expect it to be one of the first stocks to start back in the right direction. If I were holding and a crash did come, I’d stop checking the markets and wait. The only caveat is to watch Tesla’s cash position.

Just my opinion, of course. Proceed at your own risk.

andy.connor.e | 27 septembre 2019

I think if something like that were to happen, the least of your worries is your Tesla stock.

Tesla-David | 27 septembre 2019

I am comfortable holding long with my TSLA stock.

TranzNDance | 27 septembre 2019

They've been saying something like that for a while. Eventually, they'll be "right". If one is in the accumulation phase, down markets are great for buying things cheap. If one is not in the accumulation stage, one should adjust asset allocation so that a down market is not so painful.

SCCRENDO | 27 septembre 2019

Trump continues to cause serious crap particularly with impeachment looming. He now wants to stop all investment in China. A recession is due in about 18 months but obviously this could be triggered sooner. I spoke to my investment advisor this week and we have been slowly shifting from stocks to bonds and from growth stocks to value stocks. We are also moving to higher grade bonds. But the shift will be limited to about a 10 decrease in stock holdings and 10 percent rise in bond holdings. Recessions usually last a year no more than 2. So we need to ride it and then pick up again. My Tesla stock is my play money and is a very small percentage of my portfolio. I will just keep it.

Syracuse Joe | 28 septembre 2019

I'm not at all confident Tesla stock prices can be fairly compared regardless of other trends. Jack Rickard's theory makes the most sense to me:

https://youtu.be/vfILTM_xcOE

In fact this was a large motivator toward my recent M3 purchase.

SamO | 28 septembre 2019

Even with a global downturn, any drop for Tesla will be temporary.

In the event of a global depression, expect local governments all over the world to use renewable energy instead of importing expensive fossil fuel. Solar/Wind + Batteries is significantly cheaper than any new generation currently being considered. With drops in raw materials and labor costs, expect the Green New Deals adopted throughout the world to cost significantly less.

Here's the latest Malaysian tender, which attracted bids for $0.042-0.057/kWh

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/09/05/latest-malaysian-tender-attracts-...

Tesla's addressable market is in the Trillions $ without any meaningful competition in many of their market verticals.

Cars
Solar
Grid storage
Charging Networks (super & destination)
Autonomy

If they launch a Tesla Network, then I expect the market value to double almost overnight.

I'm just not comfortable timing the market to the degree needed. Perhaps a stop loss?

dmm1240 | 28 septembre 2019

I agree, Sami, it will be temporary. Buying opportunity if you’re inclined to dabble in the stock market. The auto stocks you don’t want are Ford and GM.

Xerogas | 28 septembre 2019

@dmm1240: I’m totally fine with sitting on muscular atrophy until 2920. Likely be dead by then

Mike83 | 28 septembre 2019

Each person has their own motivation. I have no problem with volatility and have taken advantage of buying on dips.
The mission of Tesla is really world saving against the uncontrolled greed of the fossil fuel interests and I am staying in the fight. I don't like to lose money but will do it for higher goals. Funny thing is I seem to be doing quite well. Principles are still worthwhile and I like to feel good, have fun, and stay healthy.

Frank99 | 28 septembre 2019

SCCRENDO -
Not to be a Debbie Downer myself, but my personal view has always been that if investment advisors were actually any good at investing, they wouldn't need a day job.

SCCRENDO | 28 septembre 2019

My experience has been that they are very good. I think You may be referring to day traders that guess the market. These guys look at your goals degree of aggressiveness and risk tolerance and balance your investments across multiple types of markets. They have teams that understand the markets and make slow changes as things change. Based on my present risk tolerance and the state of the market they are moving me from 70/30 stocks/ bonds to 60/40. Yes you could do it yourself. But I am paying a fee for their expertise. Their value is not necessarily in how much you gain in good markets. It’s how much they limit your losses in bad markets.

jordanrichard | 29 septembre 2019

Frank99 +1.

I really, really wish that when these so called experts/analysts get their predictions wrong, that they got called out on TV about it.

SCCRENDO | 29 septembre 2019

I think we are talking about 2 different things. You are talking about “talk show” hosts on financial channels “predicting” the future. I am talking about teams of financial professionals that evaluate your portfolio and invest for you in a balanced manner. They usually have a long term plan for you and are not trying to get you”rich” in 6 months. Depending on your risk concern and I happen to be a 5 on a scale of 1-10 they balance your funds across multiple markets etc. As long as your circumstances don’t change your investments will be relatively unchanged with small adjustments being made according to naturally changing market cycles. Nobody panics with a short term big loss or”crash’ as the strategy takes this into account. And again when there is a market rise that may be way above expectations we do not change anything either. People who are more aggressive at say 10 may see far higher growth. But when the market crashes they can experience horrific losses. But they need to know this going in.

Yodrak. | 29 septembre 2019

"Their [a good financial advisor's] value is not necessarily in how much you gain in good markets. It’s how much they limit your losses in bad markets."

Agree

dmm1240 | 29 septembre 2019

@Xerogas. Maybe I’ll. E a better thumb typist by 2929.

Xerogas | 30 septembre 2019

@dmm1240: "@Xerogas. Maybe I’ll. E a better thumb typist by 2929."
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Hah! Understandably difficult. Luckily you can edit the title and body of your main post. Then these comments will look out of place.