Now that 60 kWh EPA range is out I think we need a competition for predicting the 40 kWh EPA range and MPGe. I'm going with 162 mile range / 99 MPGe. Tesla should give the winner a 40 kWh S.
I'm going with 148 mile range and 105 MPGe.
I am going with 142 mile range and about the same 95MPGe or lower.
If I recall correctly the 40kWh batteries are using the older batteries. I think the weight will be the same or higher than the 60.
Quick calc (w/o having the details about the exact difference between the 60, 40, 85kWh cells)
-Total weight of the car 4,700 lbs w 85kWh
-Total weight of the battery 800Kg (1760 lbs)w 85 kWh
-Total weight of the cell Core (say 70%, leaving 30% of wiring, casing,...) so 1232 lbs is for cells only
-85 kWh vs 60 kWh is 29.5% less cells hence 29% less weight 363 lbs less (i know there are not exactly the same but it is simpler)
-363 lbs over 4,700 is 7.7% less weight on the total of the car
meaning the 60kWh should be around 8% more efficient than the 85kWh
-Which is very close to the EPA tests 95 MPGe vs 89
Now for the 40 kWh
same logic leads me to:
47% less Core battery weight so 579 lbs
579 lbs over 4700 lbs is 12.3%
12% better MPGe for the 40 kWh pack means 100 MPGe
Range: seems like TM was a bit more conservative for the lower batteries so I'd go for 2% better than advertised range (same ratio than for the 60kWh) i.e. 163
8000 * 3.6V * 3.1Ah = 89280Wh. Battery cells weight 46g each = 368kg ~= 811 lbs. you have 400 lbs too much for cells alone.
ok I'll try it too...
152 mile range, 101MPGe
And btw: 40kWh won't be offered in Europe :(
My guess for 40kWh range is 139 smiles.
Since EPA range has been running 11-12% less than TMC stated range, I would estimate 142 miles.
I should have said 144 for range.
100 MPGe and 144 miles of range on the 5 cycle EPA tests