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Difference in delivery ETA between those that made a deposit years ago versus those making a deposit now

Difference in delivery ETA between those that made a deposit years ago versus those making a deposit now

For someone that put a non-Sig reservation deposit years ago and got to configure today versus someone making a reservation deposit just now (and pending config), how many months behind would the latter be in terms of delivery ETA? It probably hinges on the 30k backlog, but do we have more information now to make a good guess? If Tesla's manufacturing velocity increased with a goal of ~40k S and ~40k X for FY16, the wait for those making a reservation deposit as of today should be less than a year. Not bad. That's bearable.

Thoughts?

Nexxus | 24 novembre 2015

I would think it depends on what they ordered. If they order a P90D, they might get it much sooner, since that's what they are concentrating on getting out the door. After the SIG's of course.

Roamer@AZ USA | 24 novembre 2015

Pretty much the difference is getting a car in 2016 verses 2017. With 33,000 reservations and a slow production ramp up 2016 is pretty close to sold out.

carlk | 24 novembre 2015

First question is when people who put deposit down now would even be asked to configure. Until that happens it does not matter which model they plan to order.

elguapo | 24 novembre 2015

It's all about what you order. If you put a deposit down two years ago and want a 70D, you'll wait longer than someone who put a deposit down a year ago and wants a P90D. The most expensive will be first off the line, as I mentioned in another thread. Sounds similar to Model S process in the beginning.

carlk | 24 novembre 2015

@elguapo At this moment Tesla does not know what you will buy until you configured and finalized your order.

elguapo | 24 novembre 2015

@carlk True. I guess my point was I think they'll be asking almost everyone to configure by 12/31 of this year and they'll plan to make all of the P90Ds (and DL's, if you prefer) first. It's pretty easy to open up the configure page now and it seems like in a matter of two days they got to reservation 1,5xx based on other threads here. So getting to 30,000 won't take that long.

Bottom line is higher profit cars first. So sigs, P90Ds and then maybe some foreign sigs depending on P90D list. I think more people will buy the P90D than others in the forum anticipate.

The real issue is if you want a 70D - even if you reserved two years ago, I don't think that's going to be made for a year.

EVino | 24 novembre 2015

@elguapo, I agree with your analysis. What I don't understand is why Tesla is doing it in batches. If you open up config to everyone now, they'll have more data to do the BOM and manufacturing plan. That's the upside. Where's the downside?

elguapo | 24 novembre 2015

@EVino - It's probably more complicated, but I think the downside is PR. If you let all of us in there at once, you'd kill the crazy anticipation that's spreading like wildfire now that some of the production reservations are getting "invited" to configure. People are checking their e-mail every 5 minutes to see if they can configure and that's good for Tesla - more buzz. Just look at how the forum came alive over the past couple of days...

Honestly, if they just let everyone in, it wouldn't seem as exclusive. Particularly if they let people who are reserving today, configure today, like you can with the S.

Madatgascar | 24 novembre 2015

Pretty funny that if you reserve now, you have to acknowledge that your car may be delivered in "2014 or later."

paradis | 24 novembre 2015

@evino - I think they also might be worried about crashing the configurator site if 20 or 30,000 people tried to configure at once. That could be the reason to space it out. Also, the DS's could not handle the volume of calls from folks with config questions.

EVino | 24 novembre 2015

Makes sense. Control the floodgates.

jk | 25 novembre 2015

It's just to make the earlier reservations feel kinda "special" for a few days when in reality your delivery time will now be based upon which model you order.

At this stage your reservation number is only relevant to your P90D delivery date. If you want something else then you got a long wait yet.

Roamer@AZ USA | 25 novembre 2015

Since no non reservation holders have been allowed to configure a car it is impossible to say how Tesla will handle those reservations/orders in the future.

Currently within the population of reservation holders it appears that manufacturing is being prioritized to ship the higher cost reserved cars first.

I have not seen any indication that new orders would move ahead of existing reservations. Only that within the population of existing reservations higher cost cars will be scheduled first.

With a 33,000 reservation backlog I think it will be awhile before anyone has to worry about new orders jumping the line.

Finally, who knows what options will exist three months from now. The configuration page will change overtime.