Hey Morgan Stanley

Hey Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley's analyst, normally a TSLA bull, just opined that Model X's price was too high relative to the S, sending TSLA down. Funny, I was just thinking the opposite. Somehow he thinks Model X is $25k higher than a comparable S, and "$10k to $15k higher than we had expected."

All we have now is the $132k Sig version, which is almost exactly the same as a comparably equipped Model S P85D. This really has me kicking myself for not getting in line earlier. I thought Elon's guidance for the future versions is only $5k more than the comparable Model S. Where is Adam getting his info?

Model S is a great car and sells well, but it does not seat 7 adults, have a 5000# towing capacity, falcon wing doors, bioweapon defense mode, over the top windshield, etc. Realistically if any of those five features were a la carte add-ons for Model S, people would gobble them up at $3k to $5k for any ONE.

I think Adam must be comparing a projected Average Transaction Price that is based on the high end X's being produced first, and drawing the wrong conclusions about the comparative price with the S. This should be corrected.

Roamer@AZ USA | 7 octobre 2015

Lots of people don't get it.

eric.zucker | 7 octobre 2015

Some people like to play with stock prices... up, down, up, down... short, long, short, long. Each swing gets them LOADS of profits. Influential trading.

Stock is on a wild rollercoaster, and the value of my portfolio as well. Not good on the nerves.

carlk | 7 octobre 2015

I paid $122K+tax for my SP85+ only a year and half ago and I did not even click every available option. X90D with dual motor, higher power and acceleration, larger carrying capacity and better seating is a much better deal imo. Did I mention the super cool falcon wing door too?

The only reason Tesla is not making the lower priced X70D now is it does not have to yet. Where is you brain Adam?

geemoney3135 | 7 octobre 2015

For stock investors like myself, these comments from Analysts that drive the stock down only provides buying opportunities for those who are long term holders of the stock. I'll take the short term plunges for the long term gains!

oragne lovre | 7 octobre 2015

@geemoney3135: +1

Al1 | 7 octobre 2015

If this is what sent Tesla down, than I would say investors don't pay much attention.

Adam Jonas only slightly adjusted his valuation model reducing price target from $465 to $450.

As of today Tesla stock trades at 231.74

I am not too much concerned about Jonas' price calculations. In a nutshell they are just bunch of assumptions.

Tesla is packed with new features. Some of them may actually turn out to be too innovative. Only time will tell.

I am sure however Tesla will be able to adjust and offer a more conservative model X if that's what the market will want.

Again only time will tel. For each potential customer that finds a feature too innovative there might two who will gladly embrace innovation.

Madatgascar | 7 octobre 2015

Gotta say, Tesla is partly to blame for this kind of thing. By not publishing pricing info, they leave themselves open to wildly inaccurate speculation.

hateToShift | 7 octobre 2015

the release feels rushed to me. they shoved it in at the last second to get it done in Sept. Rumors are they're all hand built right now, could spell disaster for TSLA if they fall far short of 50K autos delivered this year. the morgan stanley guys have been big bulls, this news has me a bit worried about my TSLA shares. hope I'm wrong, but something feels off.

madodel | 7 octobre 2015

Falling less than 50,000 or even 55,000 will tank the price of TSLA. I'm hoping they miss as I'd like to buy more. This stock reminds me a whole lot of AAPL with people manipulating it based on faulty logic, not seeing the real potential, and shilling for competition (In TESLA's case this is more than just other auto makers). The future is bright for Tesla, whether they sell 50,000 cars this year or not.

Red Sage ca us | 7 octobre 2015

By expecting people to count on their fingers and toes and figure out that a Tesla Model X P90D costs $25,000 less than a Porsche Cayenne Turbo S, or that the Model X 90D will cost about the same as a Cayenne GTS, Tesla motors has shown far too much faith in humanity.


rdalcanto | 7 octobre 2015

I think the next earnings report will reveal that Tesla will deliver very few Model Xs this year, and fall short of 50,000. I think the stock will drop until the Model 3 reveal. I'm thinking of buying a lot more shares when it drops.

Bubba2000 | 7 octobre 2015

The souped MX being offered, is a superb hi end SUV from a customer point of view, though I am not a fan of the Falcon doors or the huge windshield. However, from a shareholder point of view, I would have preferred the MX to have more in common with MS. Just make the MS taller, 4 doors, regular seats, optinal 3rd row seats. Share >70% parts with MS and the basic design.

In my opinion the design, tooling cost would have been significantly lower with faster time to market. Less controversy. With separate - and simpler - assembly lines, production costs would drop with economies of scale. Improved cash flow and real profits, that would enable rapid deployment of M3, supercharger network.

With MS, Tesla chose a conventional design and it has been a success in the market. People will buy the MX because it is an electric SUV, not because of the Falcon doors, curved windshield, complex seats, etc.

KyleGoss | 7 octobre 2015

I agree most of the Model X features are killer, but the "bioweapon defense mode" will certainly come to Model S and certainly no one would pay $3k-5k for it. Maybe $250-500 at the most.

Red Sage ca us | 7 octobre 2015

It would have been incredibly lazy and uninspired to build a Model X out of a Model S the same way that the PT Cruiser was built out of a Neon, or a Caliber out of an Avenger.

Pungoteague_Dave | 8 octobre 2015

What? Even Elon says the Model X and S are twins! The base skateboard is virtually the same. this is what enabled the interim rush-out of the D cars - they had the engineering done for the X. What are you smoking tonight Reds?

The S truly is just an inflated S, with some silly doodad doors that don't work well and take forever to open and close. Elon even had to wait for the stupid self-opening front door to open. I don't have that kind of time, and neither do soccer Moms. Fortunately, most won't ever have to experience the delay because the vast majority can't afford a car at this price point.

Telsa couldn't even revise the dash a la the prototype! The X is a total fail, will not sell 25 units in any year. X = poorly executed minivan at best. There will likely never be a 70.

You can buy three fully loaded Honda minivans, give two to charity, and have way more utility left with the one you keep. I just re-watched Elon's terrible performance in the reveal. The X is truly a bad joke - and it is time for some of the fanbois to see the emperor has no clothes with this puppy.

Son of a Gunn | 8 octobre 2015

Dang, Pungoteague_Dave, you forgot to mention on this thread how many F150s, trailers, farms, and homes you have. Might need to add another post.

Ross1 | 9 octobre 2015

Conspiracy theory. Musk called Jonas insightful.

Maybe he knows something we don't.

I posted on another thread that my guess is there will be price rises inevitably, because of build complexity and R&D costs.

Perhaps Jonas knows this from another source.

$10 k more.

Ankit Mishra | 9 octobre 2015

Doomsday prophecies, eh? You seem to have figured everything out. Please use your special powers to suggest solutions for some problems humanity is facing. No need to bother for Elon's peasant car X.

Ross1 | 9 octobre 2015

A good solution for humanity?

USA likes to provide its citizens with guns, unlike Australia which confiscated them.

A suggestion, maybe in NYT, was that all gun owners pay an insurance premium based on various factors. Could be very expensive to own a gun and even worse to have claims against you.

USA has more mass shootings than there are days in a year.

Is that the sort of problem you want to solve?

Anyway this is a thread hijack...

Al1 | 9 octobre 2015

The X is a total fail, will not sell 25 units in any year. X = poorly executed minivan at best.

It won't take too long to confirm or reject this.

carlk | 9 octobre 2015

@Son of a Gunn

Dang, Pungoteague_Dave, you forgot to mention on this thread how many F150s, trailers, farms, and homes you have. Might need to add another post.

Nay, I won't give him the little credit he does not deserve until he starts to tell us his world travelling stories. | 9 octobre 2015

In order to be successful the X has to get about 2% share of the overall US SUV market over the next year.
Tesla has achieved that with the S in the US market for sedans. Being bold enough to ride a motorcycle across Asia doesn't necessarily translate to automotive marketing expertise, fortunately for a Tesla. The X is hardly an Edsel.

aesculus | 9 octobre 2015

@george: Actually there are many potential parallels with the MX and Edsel, but I hope it does not come to this. These would only show up in hindsight but some of them can scare you a bit even now. Having said that I can kind of see me being one of Edsel's early adopters just as I am with the MX.

I wonder if another problem with the Edsel was that Ford was so convinced it was perfect they failed to realize they were dealing with humans, who we all know are not logical and could not judge perfection if it knocked on their door.

Red Sage ca us | 9 octobre 2015

Pungoteague_Dave: You have been traveling, so perhaps you missed it... But I have explained previously that I do not drink or smoke. It must be something inside.

I would compose a lengthy rebuttal, but I am travelling myself. My tablet is acting funny and I hate composing messages on my phone. Let's just confirm that I disagree with your assessment of Elon Musk and the Tesla Model X.

Do not be surprised when Model X outsells both Chevrolet Volt an Nissan LEAF in the US during 2016.

Pungoteague_Dave | 10 octobre 2015

Please don't tribute the Edsel comparison to me @georgehawley - I believe it is you who conjured that comparison. But now that you mention it, the X may truly entail that much risk, at least in terms of its effect on the Tesla mission. I hope not, but am distressed. No one will wait 13-17 seconds for the passenger doors on their primary kid carrier to open. No one except fanbois. 8/

Back from Hong Kong, and in the MS saddle again next week. Can't wait. The pollution in China, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan are epic. We hear about it, see pictures, but until surrounded by it, it is not possible to truly comprehend. We have no idea how good we have it in the U.S. I did visit the Tesla stores in Hong Kong and Chengdu, and saw a few Teslas (all three were tired-looking S85's) on the road, only in the big cities like Beijing. We saw a lot of destination HPWC's at Chinese hotels in the middle of nowhere, far beyond the range limit to another charger, never saw evidence of Teslas in places like Dunhuang in the Gobi desert, although there was a HPWC installed at the dune-side resort near the Magao caves. Glad to have done it, never happier to be away and able to breathe again.

Son of a Gunn | 10 octobre 2015

Pungoteague_Dave, would love to see your blog across that journey, like you did with the winter crosscountry.

So when are you getting your X? The rant now about the X is just Freudian love-hate, I know it.