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Model S Reservation Tally

Model S Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

Canada
S 69 (March 24, 2011)
P 143 (March 9, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 55 (January 18, 2011)*
P 448 (March 28, 2011)

Hong Kong
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
P 17 (January 21, 2011)

S = Signature Series (Model S)
P = General Production (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family

* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

nickjhowe | 22 Janvier 2013

@Benz - go to the TM Investor Relations site: http://ir.teslamotors.com/

Benz | 22 Janvier 2013

Tesla Motors have delivered 250 Model S cars in Q3 2012.
They expected to deliver 2,500 - 3,000 Model S cars in Q4 2012.
And they expect to deliver 20,000 Model S cars in 2013.

This information can also be read in their "Third Quarter 2012 Shareholder Letter" dated November 5th 2012.

We now know that number of Reservations for a Model S car have already surpassed the 20,000. Most of the deliveries yet have to be realised. But that will be done in 2013.

If the Reservations for the Model S car in 2013 will be as prosperous as it was in Q4 2012, then the rate of production of 400 Models S cars per week will not be sufficient to meet the demand. Otherwise new buyers of the Models S car will have to accept a date of delivery which will be further in the future. And that means that they will have to wait longer for their Model S car.

Or will there be another possibility for Tesla Motors to increase the rate of production again? Production of 800 Model S cars per week, is that possible?

I think that the total number of Reservations for the Model S car on December 31st 2013, will be about 50,000 (a few thousand more or less).

ArieK | 22 Janvier 2013

Benz: if you go back one page in this thread you can see the numbers which Brian H is tirelessly crunching. They will give you a great extrapolation of recent reservation rates into possible totals by the end of this year.

Benz | 22 Janvier 2013

It appears that my rough prediction of 50,000 is not very far from what Brian H has been calculating.

Tesla Motors have put a great product in the market. That is the only reason that I believe will lead to this estimated total number of Reservations for the Model S by the end of 2013. I just think it's a great car to have. The more people will see it in the street view, the more people will want to buy one. Time will tell.

Brian H | 22 Janvier 2013

As of January 17, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

24,935*1,741/1,393 = 31,164
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (24,935 - 13,260)*549/201 = 45,148
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (24,935 - 18,337)*426/78 = 54,372
.
:( ?

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 17.9 :| →
.
Since June '12: 58.1 :| →
.
Since Oct. '12: 84.6 :) ↑

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

Brian H | 22 Janvier 2013

Corr;

As of January 17, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

24,935*1,741/1,393 = 31,164
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (24,935 - 13,260)*549/201 = 45,148
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (24,935 - 18,337)*426/78 = 54,372
.
:) ↑

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 17.9 :| →
.
Since June '12: 58.1 :| →
.
Since Oct. '12: 84.6 :) ↑

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

jkirkebo | 23 Janvier 2013

EU P#2632 reported in Norway today.

Tiebreaker | 23 Janvier 2013

Boink

Brian H | 23 Janvier 2013

Tie;
Don't talk dirty. 'Bump' is sufficient. >;p

kenliles | 24 Janvier 2013

Bump...'n Grind

Benz | 25 Janvier 2013

On 22 January 2013 michiganmodels has mentioned in his thread of Model S Reservations that the Net Total was 20,909 Model S Reservations (up to January 17, 2013).

Is it possible to find out:
- How many Model S Reservations have been made with a 40 kWh battery?
- How many Model S Reservations have been made with a 60 kWh battery?
- How many Model S Reservations have been made with a 85 kWh battery?

LK | 25 Janvier 2013

18,521
So cal
S perform.

LK | 25 Janvier 2013

Reserved on jan 21st.

michiganmodels | 25 Janvier 2013

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 18,521 (January 21, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 624 (December 31, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,621 (January 22, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 25,180 – January 22, 2013

Net Total: 21,154 – January 22, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

siskogmo | 25 Janvier 2013

P#2659 reported in Norway today

gregv64 | 25 Janvier 2013

@Benz: No reservations were made with any batteries. You don't need to figure out what car you want until you finalize. I played around with different scenarios quite a bit until then.

Brian H | 25 Janvier 2013

As of January 21, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

25,180*1,741/1,397 = 31,380
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (25,180 - 13,260)*549/205 = 45,182
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (25,180 - 18,337)*426/83 = 54,372
.
:) ↑

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.0 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 58.1 :| →
.
Since Oct. '12: 82.4 :( ↓

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

Brian H | 25 Janvier 2013

Corr:

As of January 21, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

25,180*1,741/1,397 = 31,380
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (25,180 - 13,260)*549/205 = 45,182
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (25,180 - 18,337)*426/83 = 53,459
.
:( ↓

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.0 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 58.1 :| →
.
Since Oct. '12: 82.4 :( ↓

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

Benz | 26 Janvier 2013

@gregv64
That's correct.
My mistake.

dtesla | 27 Janvier 2013

Jan 22 moving averages for reservations:

4 week moving average: 719 reservations per week, -93 from last report
12 week moving average: 551 reservations per week, -15 from last report
4-12 week moving average: +158, -78 from last report

michiganmodels | 27 Janvier 2013

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 18,521 (January 21, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 624 (December 31, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,659 (January 25, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 168 (January 11, 2013)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 25,286 – January 25, 2013

Net Total: 21,260 – January 25, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

Brian H | 27 Janvier 2013

Awaiting U.S. update ...

jackhub | 28 Janvier 2013

bump

GoPrag | 29 Janvier 2013

bump bump bump

paulehardy | 29 Janvier 2013

Is there not a SINGLE Canadian reservation since Dec 31?? C'mon Canadians. There must be a few of you out there reserving in 2013.

TESLAOWNR | 29 Janvier 2013

18751 Last night!!

At least 11 month wait by my short calculation (if they really deliver 400/week)

markapeterman | 29 Janvier 2013

Ajepstei:
Congrats - great to have another data point.
I would bet your wait is closer to 6-8 months.

negarholger | 29 Janvier 2013

13xxx are scheduled for March delivery. 5k are 3 months.. add 1-2 months for the reds and standard suspension you may get your car in 4-5 months.

sshrivas | 29 Janvier 2013

Booked yesterday (1/28) - 18,750
Folks in the store projecting 4-6 month wait time.

negarholger | 29 Janvier 2013

Looks pretty steady so far in 2013 - 30 reservations per day.

tobys1 | 29 Janvier 2013

17510, just got notice to finalize design. Must do before end of Feb to avoid price increase.

bryanmax | 29 Janvier 2013

1/28/13

18728 p

US

Cattledog | 29 Janvier 2013

To all you 18ers, welcome! You're gonna love it.

30/day for January would be good, I'd like to see it start climbing back to 60/day by March. MT COY bumped it, price increase bumped it, would like significant spotting in the wild to bump it. However Tesla may need a more proactive strategy.

www.teslamodels.wordpress.com

Carefree | 29 Janvier 2013

@Cattledog, agree with you but the fact that Tesla is still not doing any proactive advertisement says a lot - obviously they are not worried about the demand side (yet).

negarholger | 29 Janvier 2013

Tesla is doubling the number of stores in 2013 - that should do the trick.

Brian H | 29 Janvier 2013

80-100/day would be more likely by Mar (world-wide) again. About 60-70 for the U.S. I think 18xxx's will be delivered by the end of May, or thereabouts. Should be seeing new res #s in the 30xxx range by then! Assuming TM dips its toe slightly into marketing actively. About 90% of MS owners will be selling busily, actively and passively. Well over 10K sales staff! ;)

TESLAOWNR | 29 Janvier 2013

Wow! 17xxx are already finalizing! That is awesome. Actually hoping for a little time until I start my new job with a big pay raise. But the sooner the better. What do people think about the blue color? I haven't seen that one in person yet. Those 21 inch rims are a must. My major dilemma is should I splurge for the performance and 85kw or save some money and go for the 60kw. About a 30,000 difference.

Benz | 30 Janvier 2013

Why is Tesla Motors not selling many more cars in China? There is a huge market over there (very big volumes). The Chinese Government is also investing a lot in charging stations for EV's.

GoTeslaChicago | 30 Janvier 2013

Benz,

Wrong thread for that question.

neal | 30 Janvier 2013

1/1/13

#17900 P

Tampa, Florida USA

michiganmodels | 30 Janvier 2013

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 18,728 (January 28, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 624 (December 31, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,682 (January 28, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 168 (January 11, 2013)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 25,516 – January 28, 2013

Net Total: 21,490 – January 28, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

Benz | 30 Janvier 2013

Why is there a combined total number of reservations for Model S for Europe/Asia (S - 500, R - 269, P - 2,682)? This does not really make any sense to me.

Why not have these two global areas splitted up, as these are really two different continents actually? Let's have a total for Europe (S/R/P), and a total for Asia (S/R/P). Is that possible?

jackhub | 30 Janvier 2013

18751 was reported on this thread on January 29.

Brian H | 30 Janvier 2013

As of January 28, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:
25,516*1,741/1,404 = 31,641
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (25,516 - 13,260)*549/212 = 44,998
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (25,516 - 18,337)*426/90 = 52,318
.
:( ↓

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.2 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 57.8 :( ↓
.
Since Oct. '12: 78.8 :( ↓

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

dmarwah | 30 Janvier 2013

17816 and just got my time to build email :)

lph | 30 Janvier 2013

Any chance that we can have a rate since January 1st ?
It seems that we are clipping along at about 55 per day for all reservations since the 9th of Jan '13. ((21490-20336)/21days). This is almost exactly 20k per year. If so, that is REALLY good for this time of year.
However others are stating 30/day. Am I missing something?

michiganmodels | 30 Janvier 2013

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 18,751 (January 29, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 624 (December 31, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,682 (January 28, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 168 (January 11, 2013)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 25,539 – January 29, 2013

Net Total: 21,513 – January 29, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

Brian H | 30 Janvier 2013

lph;
US vs global.

Brian H | 30 Janvier 2013

As of January 28, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:
25,539*1,741/1,405 = 31,647
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (25,539 - 13,260)*549/213 = 44,909
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (25,539 - 18,337)*426/91 = 52,052
.
:( ↓

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.2 :| →
.
Since June '12: 57.6 :( ↓
.
Since Oct. '12: 79.1 :) ↑

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

Brian H | 30 Janvier 2013

Corr:

As of January 28, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:
25,539*1,741/1,405 = 31,647
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (25,539 - 13,260)*549/213 = 44,909
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (25,539 - 18,337)*426/91 = 52,052
.
:( ↓

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.2 :| →
.
Since June '12: 57.6 :( ↓
.
Since Oct. '12: 79.1 :) ↑

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

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