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VIN 23751, 24th of September.
One-week rate data point off the chart.
Sweet --- am excited to see where this takes us over the coming months.
You can open the source image directly here: http://craigfroehle.com/posted/teslaVINs.png
Then press "Ctrl" and "+" (at the same time) to zoom in. That helps a little. The soure image is pretty small.
On my monitor (24 inch) I can read it ok without zooming.
Thanx a lot to Blue Shift, that works ...
No new VINs in 2 days?? Expect the weekly rate estimate to be VERY wonky for the next several days unless we can fill in those blanks.
24217 noted today. Prob assigned 9/23 or 24
EU VIN *20631 was assigned on 22 august.
In production on 26 september.
In the US, there is a bolted-on strip on the dash at the left with the VIN, visible from outside, by law. Maybe different in Europe.
I was at the Costa Mesa service center on Saturday - there was a car hauler unloading at 1:00pm and the service person Lisa said it was the fifth of the DAY - she also volunteered that they had sold 5 loaners that previous week - so while Tesla is delivering regular production, somewhere in there is the loaner program which escalates the production numbers while not necessarily the VIN #'s -
Each loaner also has a VIN assigned, so they are all accounted for, but they are not new VIN.
Last 5 digits of VIN: 21616 September 8, 2013
September 8, 2013
MichaelN - selling a loaner does not increase the production number. A loaner has been produced already. It is a delivery.
Production (out of the back door of a factory)
Delivery (cash paid for a sale, customer title transferred)
The only way selling loaners could alter an estimate of the deliveries of Q3 is if the VIN's of the units sold were assigned before the quarter.
I wonder how many Tesla Model Ses with a VIN lower than 20,000 will be delivered in Q4 2013 (or in 2014)?
Vin assigned on September 27 2013
Next week VIN 25,000(+)?
What I want to know is who is buying the Tesla stock at these prices, and pushing it higher? I have been long mostly around $35-40 and sold about 20% around $107 so I could sleep. I can hold because of the low cost basis... but I do not dare to add at these prices. I do not think it is the shorts since the short interest has actually gone up over the last couple of months.
The long shot here is if Tesla can disrupt the ICE market is the next few years and become a dominant brand using its proprietary tech, design and manufacturing technology. When I look at their current product, factory, Model X, new battery chemistry potential that Elon indicated... I think that Tesla will disrupt the ICE automobile.
Gen III could be sold for the price of a mass market Prius.
P85 assigned 27 sept : 24099
One of the biggest advantages that Tesla has over GM F etc is the critical mass of software programmers. Silicon valley is already having a shortage. Mark Zuckerberg is trying to reform the immigration laws because he has a shortage.http://swampland.time.com/2013/09/12/zuckerberg-to-meet-with-republicans...
Elon Musk most certainly has the same problem. Ford GM etc can not compete now with Tesla since they hardly have electronics and software engineers to do something that can compete with Tesla. This software is not trivial by any stretch of the imagination and to prove that no one did that except Tesla. It is a engineering challenge.
All this points to the dominance of Tesla over GM etc for a long time.
So the bottom line is that the market cap of Tesla is not scary at all. I expect it to reach a much higher limit. This will be more clear when Tesla tells us their numbers for Q3.
JMH, Give Craig credit for his dedication in collecting and presenting the data. It is very informative. He has committed to protecting the privacy of the raw data. Anybody else is free to collect their own data.
Bubba, it is the EV marketplace versus the ICE marketplace. For the first problem, existing dealers like Nissan trying to sell EVs at their shops have an infight between the ICE history of the shop and the new EVs. If a dealership dislikes EV since they have buyers usually smarter than their ICE buyers and take too much of the salesmans' time, they lose money on them sale in the long run since EVs should require less service and give less profit to the dealership than ICE vehicles over the life of the car.
There are other vendors stepping up, VW says they want to be the biggest EV vendor in the world. BMW says they want to make their whole line PiHV. GM is doing work on new stuff. It is exciting times watching EVs grow. But it is also destructive long term. OEMs of ICE parts will eventually suffer. Repair shops will lose work. You can run an EV 200,000 miles when a comparable ICE will be run down at 150,000 miles. So be it. Cars should last, not die at 150-200k miles. Nissan just announced the Leaf will soon be available with 120mile range. These vendors just need to make some larger vehicles like CUVs. That families can afford. Volts now can be had for under $25k out of pocket, similar for Leafs.
What everyone should realize is the EV marketplace is not just Tesla. Cheer for the home team while also marveling at the wide selection of away teams.
JHM....By your prior posts you obviously have some expertise in analysis of these types of numbers. Why not just take the available data, or start your own thread asking forum members for the information you need to make your own analysis?
What is the point in the post that basically attacks cfOH's ability and analysis?
I admit I am not the 'smartest person in the room' when it comes to data accumulation and analysis but I support the time, effort and analysis that cfOH has provided.
If I disagreed with his data collection or the analysis, as you do, I would simply start my own thread and do my own work instead of attacking him or his work.
I think Craig was more than reasonable and cordial regarding your unsolicited advice. You, on the other hand, not so much. Flagged.
JHM, if people are trading off of Craig's numbers then in some ways, let the buyer beware. We know certain numbers outright by listening in to conference calls and interviews. Vin gaps do and always will occur in automotive construction. Something called Clean Vins occur. Also, it appears there are Vin groupings for US and EU builds from looking at the numbers. I would not trade off of these numbers other than to know that some level of increased production above the 550 or so i per week in June is occurring. Likely 650/wk. What matters is sales for stock traders and it appears an end of month push is underway to either surpass, or even meet, guidance. Seems sales of loaners is being done as well to boost sales figures. Good luck but I wouldn't want to be trading off these numbers for the downside of getting it wrong, on either side of the trade, could be rough on anyone involved. Q3 numbers are going to be one of this year's most watched results of all stocks due to the current valuation.
JHM Sounds like you have a deep interest in this subject. The data are in this and previous threads. So do the analysis yourself!
24637 confirmed 9/15 received vin 9/28
quote from JHM: "The market is making multi-billion dollar bets on this company. If you do not have the time, skill or inclination to advance your analysis, the best you could do is make your full dataset available to anyone who wishes to do their own analysis."
@JHM I have been lurking in the background of this thread and the former one for quite a while, so congratulations your post got me out of the shadows. I really appreciate everything Craig has done. He has provided valuable information which gives us a glimpse into the Model S production. It's particularly valuable, considering Tesla has chosen to hide the actual production numbers until the quarterly releases, unlike just about every other automaker in the world.
JHM, your post typifies what is wrong with most investors these days. They make a little bit of money, which seems like a lot in their world and they equate their sense of success with superiority. Take some friendly advice: get over yourself.
Craig provides this service to everyone in his spare time. As far as we know, no one in the market is paying him for this service, so your concern that multi-billion dollar bets are being made with this information is irrelevant. His "dataset" is available as posts in this forum, provided by owners in their spare time, and easily parsed into a usable format. If you want to offer him a job doing this collection and analysis and he accepts the offer, then you have the right to make demands of how he does it. Until then, feel free to collect and analyze the data yourself.
@cfOH Thank you for providing us with this valuable information. Myself and many others who have never posted on this forum, appreciate it.
Thanks dennisogmia, and congratulations on your purchase and getting the thread back to basics :)
More VINS?? Thanks, in advance
JHM Since the VINs Craig is using are posted at the top of this thread and are also available by going through the posts on this, his previous as well as other threads, perhaps it's you, the "sophisticated investors and analysts" who "do not have the time, skill or inclination to advance" analysis of the data.
Maybe have an intern from your corporate investments group take a shot at it...
Thanks again for doing this. Although no good deed goes unpunished, it appears there are far more that appreciate your efforts than those who have some gripe. Personally, as a Tesla enthusiast and shareholder, I look at this thread daily far more for the enthusiast side. VINs delivered would strike a more even balance with the shareholder side although so much is already priced in to the stock currently that it'll take far more than strong MS sales to justify a change in my tsla position.
The rapid rise in VINs and possibly the production is impressive, but it should have been expected. Elon Musk and his team have a well designed Model S that is being optimized to be manufactured by a highly automated robotic plant. Meanwhile, the supply chain is being optimized. A rate of 1,000 Model S/week with 2 shifts is certainly possible.
Meanwhile. geographic expansion of the market to Europe, Greater China, Japan, etc will support the demand for the car to a rate of 50,000/year. Then there is Model X that could add another 50,000 autos/year. Plus.
I suspect Wall Street got caught with their pants down. A lot of professional money shorted the stock without even driving the car, let alone visiting the factory. Others are trolling this threads looking for data. They should visit test drive cars, may be buy a few do a tear down and look at IPRs, etc, visit the factory. Instead of freeloading on folks like Craig with a sense of entitlement.
@krumpstead If that was your very first post after long-time lurking then it was worth the wait. Well done and I hope to hear more from you.
Craig...Good job. Thanks
Now back to more VINs..please...Thanks
Do they issue VIN's on the weekend though?
I remember getting my VIN on a Sunday night at 11:00 pm eastern time.
@JHM - shirley you jest. I like Craig's analysis as much as the next guy (maybe more) and read this thread often, but with all due respect there is nothing earth shattering here.
With just a few vin assignment and delivery date information, one gets the value of the analysis: approximate rate of sales and production. A fancy graph, or fancier graph, based on a self-selected sample is just not going to tell an investor anything meaningful since sales and production are simply approximated by this data anyway.
Adding to the loaner fleet, adding countries to the sales geography, and the "vin assignment guy" being sick for a couple of days could skew the data. And past/current/1-month future sales is a tiny part of what would drive an investor's valuation of the company - it is how long they will be able to sell enough Model S to keep up with production, whether they introduce the Model X before they have excess capacity, the demand for the Model X, GenIII, among others.
Then there is the risk - major issue with their only product? Expensive recall? Significant battery degradation? A competitor emerges?
I love looking at this data and analysis - but can't imagine any professional investment advisor weighting it in any meaningful way. If they did, and it were my investment advisor, I would be looking for a new advisor.
Yes, VINS s are issued 7 days a week. So, any new VINs? Thanks
JHM is disappointed, the delicate genius is upset, that is massively sick.
Collecting the data and inferring the production and sales trends is practically the most
Useful information, certainly second to none. Thanks Craig for your excellent work.
Craig, I would like to apologize to you for my harsh words. I am very sorry and wish I could take them back. I do appreciate and value your effort to collect and present this data, and apparently there are many others who do as well. Keep up the good work.
OK. So can we get past the cfOH vs. JHM issue and get back to thread business of tracking VINs. Thanks to all who participate and to all who 'bump' this thread to keep it on the first page so that new forum members can easily find/see it
Chart has been updated. New assignment rate is right in line with our new "plateau," so things look to be fairly stable at the moment.
Wow, looks like I missed a lot of melodrama while I was taking a little time away from the computer and enjoying my wife's birthday celebrations this weekend. :-)
If anyone wants to do a better job tracking these data, I have only one thing to say: be my guest. I'm only doing it because nobody else seems to want to.
Anyway, some observations about the two "clusters" of VINs that appear around 9/23 & 9/24, as they illustrate some particular phenomena with these VIN data:
1) They aren't sequential; 24298 was issued on 9/23 yet 23751 was issued the next day. One possible explanation is that our respondents (the people providing their VINs) aren't the most timely in noticing they have a VIN, so these dates in some cases are "when I noticed it" versus "when it was issued." Another possible explanation is that Tesla is, in fact, issuing VINs out of sequence. I don't know why it would do that, but it's certainly a possibility.
2) We have two VIN gaps: 23549 -> 23751 (202 missing VINs) and 23880 -> 24099 (219 VINs). This got me wondering if the data had any sort of regular/non-random gaps in it, so I went back and looked at all the data and found several gaps of 150 or more VINs. However, while we had them fairly frequently (15 by my estimate going back to late May) prior to 8/9/13 (at least partly, if not entirely, due to data sparsity), we've only had gaps >150 VINs 4 times since then. So, either our data are getting better (more representative) or Tesla is skipping VINs less frequently. I just don't think the latter explanation is a likely one, so I'm going to continue under the assumption that gaps are just due to the randomness of self-selected sampling until the data (or someone with first-hand knowledge) suggest to me otherwise.
3) I'm beginning to suspect that VIN assignments cluster around the end of each month, preceding the end-of-month by one to a few days. I don't know why that would be. It could be because of financial reporting pressures, or perhaps internal reward policies, but I honestly haven't any insight into why this would happen, especially on non-quarterly EOMs.
Anyway, happy to entertain suggestions on how this could be more useful while keeping realistic expectations for its accuracy and precision (given the data source) in mind. And @JHM, no worries. :)
Oh, and I do appreciate everyone's encouragement. Thanks. :-D
BTW, JHM's suggestion of a formal gap analysis is very reasonable. Here's the plot, which I considered when discussing the randomness of the gaps a couple of comments above this one: