DO NOT POST YOUR VIN HERE -- THIS THREAD HAS BEEN DEPRECATED
The new VIN tracking thread is here: NEW BUYERS: Please post your VIN here
Click image for full-sized chart.
No doubt they are sweating, but other threads show Tesla buyers come from a wide spectrum of car owners. Mine was a Buick.
@SD - last numbers I read S class and big BMWs were up substantially so far this year... so MS doesn't seem to take away much from that segment. At work it is not the folks who drive the $100k cars that ask me about the MS. Like jackhub said it comes from a much wider group of people. Like me the most I spent on a previous car was $24k, because I never felt compelled to spend more for the "prestige" of a luxury ICE. Analysts that limit the MS market potential to the luxury segment are mistaken.
24957 Assigned 10/2 confirmed 9/24 P85+
What does bump mean?
Bump means: I have nothing to say, but want to keep the thread close to the top.
I think what we are seeing is a peak in demand for the automotive market in general. There was pent up demand for new cars from the recesssion. The automotive sector has always been cyclical. It just turns out that the Model S arrived on the scene just when consumer confidence came back. Hopefully that makes up for the stressors Tesla suffered through the recession.
back to bumping and more VINS
In light of the Model S fire incident, this thread will be especially interesting since it'll give an indication of how significant, or insignificant, it is.
Glad the leveling off of the weekly VIN rate occurred a week ago and not today as it might have led to the erroneous conclusion that it was related to the fire. Actually, change the "might" to "would"-there are a lot of haters and sensationalists out there.
Changed to P: 24.09.13
VIN assigned: 4.10.13
Hehe, just now noticed, nice VIN :D
Jim M, firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com
S model w/85 kwh option
VIN **-21942 issued 09/24/13
Not a lot of data this week.
Looks like Elon's going to have a November surprise in the Q3 letter/conf call... random VINs are up there...
Thank you for posting VINS. Please continue
Chart updated. I made one small change: I changed the "1 week" VIN assignment rate estimate to "2 weeks". This is because the 1-week estimate is just far too noisy to be useful. It's been fluctuating from as low as ~400 cars per week to almost 1,000 cars per week, and it seems unlikely that Tesla is actually seeing that kind of variability. More likely, those numbers are simply the result of relying on very few data points, especially over the few days immediately prior to each update...we often don't see a bunch of VINs from that day or the day before because they build up over time as people post them. A 2-week rate seems more stable while still offering a more responsive estimate of Tesla's VIN assignment rate.
Also, someone emailed me and requested another plot. Should I post it here or make a new thread? It's not one I plan on updating regularly...just a one-off chart. Preferences? If none, I'll just add it to this thread.
I suggest adding it to your thread. Thanks for all your work on this - a lot of fun watching the chart.
OK, so here's a historical chart of all my VIN data. It includes the usual linear trendline (light blue) as well as a 2nd-order polynomial trendline (orange). Since we're looking at 5 months of data, the use of a polynomial seems reasonable; normally, with just 2 months of history, a linear approximation is adequately accurate IMO.
Click image to show full-sized chart.
I won't be updating this on a regular basis...maybe in another 5 months. ;-)
new day ... bump
Fred and Benz...my turn to bump
The data seem to suggest that either Tesla has largely stopped issuing VINs on weekends, or else new buyers don't check their My Tesla pages on the weekends, as we usually get VERY few VINs posted on Saturdays and Sundays.
Maybe just bump it Monday morning?
It is almost 11pm EST on Sunday...It is Monday in Europe cfOH...so time to bump!
may 14 2013 Got the email at 7:24 pm.
to fill in the early days...
the bottom end of your poly curve points the wrong way for this point, maybe the linear is better.
Yes, it's Monday. Now we can start to bump this thread back to the top again. Here we go.
Monday morning Bump.
Monday PM (EST) bump.
bump bump bump ... Ihr Spackos )
FYI for shareholders - James Chanos, the infamous short seller, just hinted at a position on TSLA.
His frim's name, Kynikos, is the greek word for cynic...
Nothing the shorts say or do at this stage is going to hurt Tesla. The company has the cash need to fund ModelX production, supercharger network, sales/service worldwide. Production could hit 50,000 Model S next year. In 2014 Tesla could product 100,000 Model S+X. Enough to fund Gen3 production.
Short did help the fund the last round capital raise.
GBoar on TMC reported:
Test drive 9/27( in NYC)
Delivery late November
it was 7th of October at the time in NYC.
Please post your newly assigned VINs, folks...we need the data. At least a couple each day would be great. Thanks.
I wanted to explain why having lots of VINs helps, since I think some people believe all we need are the first and last VINs during a period to calculate the rate (which isn't true).
I made up a fake set of VIN data to illustrate my point, consisting of 10 VINs assigned each day over 10 days:
Click on image to expand
On the left are 5 columns:
A) The date the VIN was issued
B) The VIN (what the data would be if we had 100% of VINs reported)
C) VINmiss80 -- an 80% chance of the VIN being missing
D) VINmiss50 -- a 50% chance of the VIN being missing
E) VINmiss20 -- a 20% chance of the VIN being missing
Columns C-E were just generated using Excel's RAND() function...nothing fancy.
Now, notice in the graphs. On the VINall graph, the slope of the estimated trendline is 10...exactly what our actual VIN assignment is.
On VINmiss80, however, the missing data force that slope estimate to be off...it's 9.57, or 4.3% off.
On VINmiss50, we're missing fewer data (approximately half) and the slope estimate is a little closer to 10.
And on VINmiss20, it's very close, since we're only missing about 20% of the VINs.
Now, in our Tesla VIN database, we only maybe 2 to 3 percent of all VINs issued, so our data are not very rich. Thankfully, we still get 1+ each day typically and we're not trying to get a slope over a really short period of time, both of which help our confidence in our estimates.
Anyway, I thought some might find that helpful.
You might want to parse through this:http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/21988-November-Late-Novemb...(2013)-VINs
should have a bunch.
I think a smaller percentage of buyers will read the forum as the consumer base shifts from early adopters to “more” regular car buyers and it’s going to be more and more difficult to get VIN’s.
Fred...I suspect you are correct.
September 30th - VIN# 24,923
Order Placed: 09/23/2013
Order Confirmed: 09/24/2013
VIN Assigned: 10/08/2013
VIN#25730 assigned on 10/8
CHIPPER writes: Just got my VIN today (10/8/13) P25619
Finally! Ordered Sept 26. Received VIN today! Last 5 of VIN: 25625
We have a VIN!
It showed up today 10/8/2013.
I first ordered on 9/28, confirmed on 9/29. Still showing delivery for late November.