DO NOT POST YOUR VIN HERE -- THIS THREAD HAS BEEN DEPRECATED
The new VIN tracking thread is here: NEW BUYERS: Please post your VIN here
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I’m sure about the logic of using all VIN and subtracting all cars that Tesla confirmed having delivered like they use the Cheat Sheet article.
From the provided VIN numbers, Froehle found that the VIN sequence reached 25730 as of Tuesday, meaning 25,730 units since Tesla began production. Subtracting the 12,550 units Tesla already reported to have delivered since the end of the second quarter, Froehle came to a 13,180 figure, which still doesn’t account for cars with European VINs. Thus, even if Tesla didn’t sell half of those cars in the third quarter, its quarterly sales would still reflect a 27 percent increase from those in the second quarter, and that manages to blow away analyst expectations.
I prefer the logic you used in your email to Mercury News:
If you look at the period of June - August, Tesla probably issued around 7,500 VINs, most of those to end customers. If you assume that 75%-85% of those actually result in cars delivered to customers within a month of VIN issuance, then a reasonable estimate of cars delivered in Q3 (July-September) would be ~5,600 to ~6,400. But, as I said, I don't have enough data to make that prediction confidently. Q4 should be a much more solid guess.
Edit: *not sure about the first logic
Regarding VIN gaps: I have been keeping informal track of VIN's that I've seen posted in the forums. Since VIN 13000, I've found 621 of them, just under 5%. Another way to look at it is that the average gap between VIN's will be 20. So given the random nature of the data, you would not be surprised to see some gaps in excess of 100. Here's a summary of the VIN gaps in my data. The VIN listed is at the upper boundary of the gap.
Subtracting the official total as of June/13 from the latest VIN known isn't quite apples to apples. If available, you should subtract the highest issued VIN known as of June. (There would have been demos and undelivered cars etc. then, too.)
Chart updated. Weekly rate (red dots) still climbing. Because of the EOQ (end-of-quarter, not economic order quantity) effect, and the fire publicity, I'm going to hold off starting a new red trendline until another week goes by...we may be seeing a temporary blip. If not, I'll reflect the elbow in the data (around 10/4-10/7) in the new trendline.
Some other reactions...
Wow, that IBTimes article has some pretty crazy mistakes in it. I'm glad I'm not getting stock analysis from that guy. ;-)
@oildeathspiral: I don't verify the VINs as valid, but there would have to be a LOT of VINs posted to throw off the estimates significantly, and I just don't think the shorts are that well-organized or that willing to play a long-term game to do it. That said, if I see a data point that seems really out of whack, I double-check it and, if it was posted that way, do no not include it. People do make mistakes in their posts or misremember dates.
@Out4aDuck: I posted a gap analysis a few pages back and the VIN gaps are well-behaved (statistically speaking). I'm pretty satisfied as to the absence of large, non-random gaps.
Oh, and just to be clear: the "VIN assignment rate" is NOT (N. O. T.) an estimate of either car production or deliveries. To use it as such is to be wholly wrong and I refuse to be an accomplice to such abuses of the data.
Thanks, all, for the encouragement. The quarterly analysts call is definitely ramping up the crazy quotient out there. :-/
@NoMoreMBZ: Was that maybe 24679 instead of 23679?
25998. 11 October 2013
Looks like TM is ramping up again... we know Elon wants to be at 800 next year so as a forward looking guy he has be there about end of November to make it stick.
Oct 11, 2013
Ordered Sept 26th and delivery was 'December', then today I got a VIN. Guessing it'll be before December!
The first 26,000+ VIN has been posted in October 2013. Will the first 27,000+ VIN be posted in October 2013 as well?
VINs usually come out overnight...any new ones?
Bump: Got to keep this one on the first page of the forum.
posted 26,001 on that thread with 10/11/13 assignment date
10005 in 4/12/2013
26001 assigned 10/11/12 Green pano P85+
If you have been given a VIN recently please post it. Thanks
Chart updated, although since VINs aren't issued on weekends, the new additions are filling in gaps on previous days (which is great, too).
So keep those VINs coming, folks...every VIN issued within the last 2 months helps the accuracy of our estimates.
In VIN-Oh, veritas.
cfOH ---- thanks for your work.
I check for your updates everyday.
Now that there are a substantial number of S delivered, do you think it would make sense to have a similar(separate) chart for "delivered" cars via vin/date.
A comparision of the two charts might be interesting..
I got some simple questions:
What the most likely number of cars delivered in Q3?
Best estimate of how many cars have been sold but not delivered?
With ASP>$90k, do you think gross operating margins have reached 25%?
FYI, I have been long starting in the $35-40 price range, but sold 20% of my shares at 107. Still have a lot of my hard earned savings and retirement in TSLA. I own a 85P/Pano and I am a very satisfied customer. Waiting for a supercharger deployment in my area.
If you guesstimate 2 weeks total "End of line to delivery", that would suggest about 1,000 more made than actually delivered.
25% margin is unlikely till y/e.
25901 on 10/9/2013
Wow look at that weekly VIN's assigned. Production needs to ramp up!
Bubba 2000: You may want to check out TMC forum for some lively exchanges/predictions to help answer your questions.
VINs anyobe? Thanks
anyobe=anyone. Please allow editing TM :)
A VIN is only assigned to a car already actually in production.
I think they issue a VIN once a car is scheduled for production.
Bump. Please post your newly issued VIN here as a comment. Thanks.
Brian H: no it's not. I got my VIN on Oct 4th. Called TM yesterday to get a bit more details and my car will enter production likely some time late December or early January with delivery still planned around January, but might slip to February.
So it's not for cars in production, but in production queue. Maybe in the US the VIN is assigned for cars soon to enter production, but for EU orders it seems it can come 2+ months before production is about to begin. So that somewhat alters the conclusions you can draw from the VIN rates.
The difference appears to be the rather nebulous definition of "in production." Tesla might consider a car "in production" simply because it has met the minimum legal requirements to be issued a VIN. The layman will assume that if a car is "in production" it's in queue for assembly. Those two events can be months apart. Others might feel a car isn't in production until it's actually on the assembly line. That, too, could be weeks after it's place in the queue has been assigned.
More VINs please. Thank you and congratulations if you just got one.
24 sep 2013
VIN# assignment is first step of production process where it is scheduled to go into production. Like Mario and JT mentioned, it a long way off between VIN assignment and actual assembly.
For US orders, it may take 5 - 8 weeks between VIN# issuance and delivery. For non-US orders, it may take upward of 3 months for delivery depending on the destination.
Back to VIN postings..thanks.
Please post you VIN number, date it was issues, and approximate delivery date (if given)
My VIN was emailed to me exactly one month before I took delivery of the car - a P85. And in the ordering section of the website it states One month priority delivery for a P85 but 2-3 months delivery for a 65 or 85.
CeeTwo....Did you already post the VIN number and the date you received it here?
I received 22971 on October 8th. Please note, this is for delivery in the Netherlands, and the VIN was assigned after it was declared ready for pickup or delivery. Delivery is expected November 15th.
25352; 10/6/13 for delivery on HALLOWEEN!!!
Dashboard showed 10/15/13 for build date.
Excellent. Thanks for the VINs. Please continue to post to help fill in the graph.
Yes, TM's definition of "in production", esp. for Euro deliveries, covers the whole "committed parts and supplies" chain. It was a lot wilder and woolier in the early days.
Thank you o all who have or will post VINs and date those VINs were assigned
OK, I'm wondering if Tesla corporate was on break for Columbus Day, as we had zero new VINs reported for Monday. And now Tuesday has come and gone and no new VINs for 10/15, either.
Please, anyone, break the silence. We haven't had a new VIN posted since 10/11/13.
VIN # 26001
initial delivery date late December
@redevries said: "I received 22971 on October 8th. Please note, this is for delivery in the Netherlands, and the VIN was assigned after it was declared ready for pickup or delivery. Delivery is expected November 15th."
Hmm...if that's the case with Dutch cars -- that the VIN isn't released to the owner until a week or so before delivery -- then I'm not going to plot them because it will totally skew the data. It's a different "production" process and would need its own dataset.
Looks like @arvid.tjomsland is in a similar situation. The VIN was reserved by Tesla a few weeks ago, but they just now told him about it. The weird thing is his delivery is more than a month from now, so it must be the different EU regulations and/or the complex supply chain to get cars from "VIN assigned" to final delivery that varies so dramatically in the EU.
Let me think about this.