DO NOT POST YOUR VIN HERE -- THIS THREAD HAS BEEN DEPRECATED
The new VIN tracking thread is here: NEW BUYERS: Please post your VIN here
Click image for full-sized chart.
cfOH: don't forget me who got the VIN on Oct 4th but doesn't expect to see the actual car before end of January earliest with production starting only in December...
@cfOH: Do you think Tesla has begun purposefully obfuscating the VIN assignments? Tesla don't seem to want to release production numbers to the public yet, and your data has been getting a lot of media attention recently.
Gizmo: No, I don't think Tesla is trying to mess with our heads or cover their tracks. I think that Tesla is having to learn how to cope with the complexity of dealing with umpteen different countries' laws and regulations regarding importing cars and Tesla is experiencing unplanned delays and uncertain lead times as a result. That's one of the main reasons I caution people to not equate VIN assignment rates to production or (even worse) delivery rates...they're just not the same. As Tesla gets more experienced and its supply chain smoothes out, we should start seeing more consistent delivery lead times. Until then, just realize that what the data show is not what analysts are hanging their hats on...two different metrics.
I think Gizmotoy was refering to VIN releases, not VIN to delivery.
Fred, OK, well, no, I don't think Tesla gives a whit about what we're doing here on this thread. I suspect that VIN assignments are an internal matter, but actually releasing the VIN to the customer is bound by different laws and import/export regulations that most of us know little to nothing about. I could be wrong...it's happened a couple of times. ;-)
@Fredlambert: Correct. The hypothesis was that Tesla has started adding random delay to when the VIN is communicated to the customer in the dashboard in order to make estimating production levels more difficult.
As long as the VIN is on the purchase agreement I don't think there are any additional requirements for Tesla to provide a VIN for you within any given timeframe, at least in the US. I waited months for my last car and didn't get a VIN until it was put on a truck a week or so before delivery.
Anyway, pure speculation, obviously.
Back-date Euro VINs 6 weeks to allow for the ocean trip?
Three reasons why Tesla is most likely not "adding random delays" between assigning VINs and issuing them to customers:
1) It adds work for Tesla
2) It provides a less-pleasing buying experience for Tesla's customers
3) It increases uncertainty in the stock market, and uncertainty tends to depress valuations
So, no, I really don't think it is.
There are counter-points, though. There's potentially little additional work beyond alteration of the code that links the internal VIN assignments to customer accounts.
I can't say I'm particularly pleased my VIN arrived a week after I confirmed. My delivery date, what I actually care about, is the same either way.
Companies like to control the message. If they cared about decreasing uncertainty in the stock, they'd announce the numbers themselves. The fact that you bring up #3 at all says to me Tesla has at least some small cause for concern as community-supplied data is being used to price the stock. That said, paid analysts do exactly this all the time, so as long as the data reflects reality or is more rosy than reality, I doubt they mind.
In any case, you're probably right, but the above was my reasoning for seeing what your thoughts were. Thanks for the insight.
VIN 26095 assigned 10/16, confirmed config 10/15. Late November delivery for P85.
When they got rid of US reservation numbers, Elon noted that anyone wanting to track TM production should just look at the most recent VINs.
Updated. I really hope we start seeing new VINs posted or the uncertainty around the 2-week VIN rate will be unhelpfully high.
Please continue to post your VINs. Thanks
Is this thread dead?!
Would appreciate new VINs being posted with the date you received it. Help keep up our knowledge about production rates.
Maybe the fire caused all their orders to be cancelled.
I kid. ;-)
But seriously, what's up with the dearth of new VINs being posted?
I think Fred was correct a couple pages ago when he said we early adopters spent a lot of time on TM and TMC forums but newer buyers
But...To all those who want to keep the VIN thread going.
Post your VINs please
Model s vin# 25880
Ordered 10-2 confirmed 10-3. Vin number 10-10
Delivery date 10-17
The three last red dots are all above the 700 mark. But will the next red dot be below the 700 mark, as a result of too few VIN's being assigned?
15 day lag order to delivery? Is it an inventory car?
20979 purchase 8/14/13. please blank out my email
You wanna know what I am thinking?
I think that Tesla Motors has decided to inform the customers in a much later stadium about the assigned VIN of their particular Model S. Or, even worse, not to inform the customers at all about the assigned VIN of their particular Model S? Could that be possible? Does Tesla Motors have an obligation to inform the customer about the assigned VIN of their particular Model S? Other car manufacturers don't do that either. Your view on this matter will be appreciated. Thanks
I think other manufacturers don't do that because the dealer handles all the paperwork. In that scenario the customer really never needs the VIN. With Tesla the consumer needs the VIN for financing and DMV.
20751 Issued 9/19/2013
I was getting ready to place my order, but decided to wait, because I've been off work, for almost 3 weeks. So, I like to read these posts and keep on checking out things about the S. This tire deal has me a little concerned, I'd like to save money on gas, but I don't want to give my savings up in tires. I've seen several comments that many people are having to replace tires as soon as 5000 miles. Edmonds road tester said Tesla replaced his tires at around 6000 miles, is Tesla giving everybody free tires? Then today on the NHSTA website, a 3 month owner said at 4000 miles the Tesla service rep, told him, he had 1000 miles left before replacement. I currently get at least 30,000+ out of a set. I can buy a lot of gas for my hybrid at $2,000 per set of tires. You know, this is only a car, I'm not going to live in it and I don't need 400hp, to drive to the grocery or work. I'm having second thoughts about spending $90K, any comments.
There have been wear issues with the 21" tires but not the 19". If concerned just get the smaller tires.
22728, october 14, 2013
Perhaps many potential new orders are being held off at this time of year so that they can slip into a "2014" year vehicle....I would if i hadn't placed order yet
Hi Craig, I noticed two VINs lately that do not make sense in terms of the sequence in October since the rest for this month seem to be above 25000. Any thoughts on these?
VIN 23822 10/09/2013
VIN 22728, 10/14/2013
Thanks for the VINS reported 10/18/2013.
Please continue to post VINs. Thanks
Well I can say circumstantial evidence points to strong sales in EU at least. When I ordered my car in mid-september the estimated delivery was January. That's 4 months. Right now for the P85 the design page states Delivers in 5-6 months. That backlog with improving factory throughput can only mean that orders are coming in faster than Tesla is producing the cars. And yes I think 99% of new buyers don't actually visit the forums so we'll be getting less and less VINs over time.
I was not very clear in my posting.
Model s vin# 25880
Ordered 10-2 confirmed 10-3. Vin number 10-10
Build date of 11-18
Delivery (pick up date 12-2
They gave me the last two dates on on 10-7
Wayne, both of those VIN's are for European customers. I expect that VIN's are created in sequential order, but not all cars start production sequentially, and not all customers receive notification immediately. Coupled with the long lead time for European cars, there can be a lot of variability in the date that the VIN is reported.
1% of more purchases is still more. He only needs a fair and current sampling to maintain the chart.
Thanks for your answer, that helps explain it. I noticed a third one that is out of sequence. So, there are three that I have seen in October.
VIN 23822 10/09/2013
VIN 23679 10/10/2013
VIN 22728 10/14/2013
My question then becomes, should these numbers be ignored or plotted? I don't know, I am not a statistician, I am just asking those who know more about this topic.
@WayneH: I'm treating those few "weird" Euro VINs as outliers and not including them in the data. There's something odd about them and I'm still struggling to understand Tesla's production and delivery processes in order to make sense of how a VIN issued a few days ago was likely put into the production planning system more than a month ago. Hopefully they aren't frequent enough to throw off my estimates, but we'll see. So far, I think I've not plotted something less than 10 times over the last couple months, so it's not a large number of data points. So far.
Put them in. If there's a pattern, you can't see if you don't look.
Those few "weird" Euro VINs are a result of only one reason. Which is that those customers received those VINs at a much later moment in Tesla's production and delivery process, although those actual VINs were assigned to the concerning Model Ses much earlier. Why did this happen to these particular customers? I don't know that for sure, but it could be explained by saying that Tesla forgot to inform these few customers on time (immediately after the VINs were assigned to the particular Model Ses). Maybe it was something technical (maybe a software issue)? Let's just say that not everything and not every process works always perfectly.
As long as they remain in very few numbers, there is nothing to worry about. You do a great job for all of us. Thanks.
22834 in production as of oct19 2013
@CfOH, I did some quick math. August 19th, 20552 - Oct. 18th, 26154. 9 production weeks. The answer is 622 units. I'm seeing a number of 728 units. It appears the average vin count/ production is closer to 622 average. Plus I'm seeing on your graph numbers as high as 925. It also appears as many as 20% of these vins are going to Europe. Here's another interesting thing, the order to build to delivery has dropped to under 4 weeks, that happened 60 days ago. I found 2 orders to the East coast, where order to delivery was 4 weeks, they were both ordered at the end of August. I work in logistics, and love to run the numbers and have the means to find out a lot of info, not available to the public. One vehicle went to Newton Center Ma.,the other to Savannah,Ga in less than 4 weeks, both were non performance models.
Oct. 8, 2013
cwave: Congratulations and thanks for posting the VIN.
@Benz: I'm pretty confident Tesla didn't just happen to forget to inform a few customers about their VINs. Different countries have different laws regulating disclosure of production information, and I suspect that either Tesla wasn't clear whether it could provide the VIN earlier or was simply not allowed to or some other situation.
@coll1951: That's not how I'm estimating the VIN assignment rate. I'm using a regression-based approach because what I effectively have from each date is a sample of VINs. If I had every VIN, then I could do what you propose, but I don't, so I have to estimate the rate based on some method, and that method I've chosen is OLS (ordinary least squares) linear regression. It's not fancy, but it's reasonably good. See previous comments of mine in this post for a more technical explanation if you care.
Thanks to those who are posting their VINs as well as the exact dates those VINs were issued to them. Both those pieces of info are important.
"Different countries have different laws regulating disclosure of production information"
OK, understood, thanks