Is anyone else concerned about the way TSLA has gone down the last couple weeks. It really makes me nervous

jimglas | 5 septembre 2018

stocks go up and down unrelated to reality. 400,000+ waiting on a model 3. that is a fact (me included).
I am sitting on my stock until it hits 4,000.

Xerogas | 5 septembre 2018

@mrporter6: nervous about what? Your retirement investments? Shorts making money? Boring news headlines?

Because if you’re worried about buying the best car made, that has literally nothing to do with the stock price. Apple stock is 2x what it was a year ago; does that mean its products are now 2x better?

Tesla-David | 5 septembre 2018

Not nervous, been holding long since IPO purchase. I believe inTesla/EM and it’s mission.

Baywood | 5 septembre 2018

We really need this thread.
We were so impressed after 5 weeks with our M3 that for the first time we have invested in an individual stock TSLA at $302. No other car is this far ahead on all levels, specially with v9 coming soon.
The Fremont production lines are real. The mad rush to produce and deliver Tesla’s is real. The quality of the M3s are now a fact. A margin as small as 15% would equals black ink. No competition for 2 years.
We can sleep very well notwithstanding the fluctuations in the stock.
$400 by year end would not be surprising.

RadOne | 5 septembre 2018

"400,000+ waiting on a model 3"

Then how is delivery at 2-4 months? Doesn't add up.

Xerogas | 5 septembre 2018

@RadOne: "Then how is delivery at 2-4 months? Doesn't add up."
You know very well. But for other folks who might be swayed by FUD: 2-4 months is only for certain configurations, in USA. Plenty of standard range and non-USA reservations in that 400,000. Adds up quite well.

RadOne | 5 septembre 2018

@Xerogas. No FUD. Reality check. I have not seen any estimated delivery for 12-18mo. That is what it would have to be. Number of outstanding reservations probably closer to 100k. Still, pretty good.

JayInJapan | 5 septembre 2018

@RadOne, think bigger

SO | 6 septembre 2018

The 400k reservations are world wide. Tesla has yet to deliver overseas to my knowledge.

jamespompi | 6 septembre 2018

Anything under 300 seems to be a good buy.. I grabbed some more yesterday @ 277

RadOne | 6 septembre 2018

Tesla domestic sales is approximately 60% of total sales. That would be 240k domestic reservations which could be up to almost 2yr wait at current production rate. Still doesn't add up.

Mike83 | 6 septembre 2018

In depth of how te FUDsters lie and connection to short stock gamblers.

jimglas | 6 septembre 2018

@radone: "I have not seen any estimated delivery for 12-18mo"
From my acct page: "Estimated delivery by late September"

RadOne | 6 septembre 2018

The number of reservationsis is inconsequential as long as it is more than Tesla can produce.

RadOne | 6 septembre 2018

@jamespompi. Good timing! Looking good.

SamO | 6 septembre 2018

Tesla has not been demand constrained in a single quarter since 2012.

Tesla has at least 300,000 reservation of Model 3 unfilled.
Tesla has at least 1,000 Semi reservations
Tesla has at least 2,000 Roadster reservations
Model Y reservations will be several hundred thousand
Tesla Truck reservations will be several hundred thousand

Short-Term Demand Levers:
Test Drives
Worldwide deliveries of Model 3 to EU/UK/China/OZ/
Open New Markets including India, South America, Russia, Southeast Asia
A single paid advertisement at the Superbowl

This is the stupidest piece of bull-crap FUD that I see repeated, tirelessly.

"Demand is just about to drop."

Shock | 6 septembre 2018

"It really makes me nervous"

It should. But, why now? The fundamentals have never been there.

TSLA @ current valuation only makes sense if it's the next Amazon, netflix, facebook. The long positions are predicated on such a story. But, are the odds there? These breakout stories in tech are countable on one's hand, and unlike TSLA those companies I mention make money hand over fist.

"Then how is delivery at 2-4 months? Doesn't add up."

Ruh roh, the math is indeed hard to explain. They are making ~5k/week, so 20k/month, claim only a few months back log (~60-80k model 3s at the most), yet at the same time we are supposed to pretend they have a 400k reservation outstanding. The ardent supporters of this clearly ridiculous claim argue there are multiple hundreds of thousands outstanding international reservations.

jimglas | 6 septembre 2018

FUD facts

Mike83 | 6 septembre 2018

Twisted analysis to produce FUD is quite juvenile but entertaining.

Shock | 6 septembre 2018

“FUD facts”

Yep, facts.

jimglas | 6 septembre 2018

you convinced me, I better 86 my car and stock pronto .....

Shock | 6 septembre 2018

Jimglas, you are convinced of nothing but confident in it nonetheless. I couldn’t care any less if you are long or short the stock. Do whatever placates your carnal desires, toots your horn, or floats your boat. If tsla goes belly up or ascends to $5000/share it will not impact me at all financially. Not a bit.

If you think you have a reasonable explanation for how .6*400000=80000 then at least you have something. For me that math doesn’t work.

lilbean | 6 septembre 2018

Says the troll.

Xerogas | 6 septembre 2018

....and....OP never returned. Classic hit-and-run FUD troll behavior. Leave a stink bomb for everyone else to argue about, and move on. Let's flag this thread to death, so we don't waste any more time with the silliness.

Shock | 7 septembre 2018

Hard to even make this stuff up. CAO just announced resignation after a month on the job, and last night Musk was smoking up & drinking during an interview. He clearly doesn't give a damn how he is perceived. No CEO of a major company acts like this.

TSLA again sinking hard, down 6% in premarket this moment.

The board is going to have to do something about Musk. His behavior is beyond the pale.

Shock | 7 septembre 2018

Today Tesla's head of HR also announces resignation.

Futures have it down 8% or so, down as low as 9% minutes ago.

How are those "FUD facts", jimglas?

cbmilehigh | 7 septembre 2018

Tesla stock dropped 7%, $20 per share overnight, after it was announced that the chief of accounting just resigned after holding the job for one month. I own Tesla stock and a model 3, so I want them to succeed, but the board needs to find a new job for Musk. He no longer is suited to be running the car company.

Making a great product and making a viable company are not the same thing. Even Steve Jobs was fired from Apple for poor performance but eventually went back to develop the iPhone.

rxlawdude | 7 septembre 2018

@cbmilehigh, you forgot to mention the interview where EM was @thcmilehighed. ;-)

Mike83 | 7 septembre 2018

Got some at 254. Shorts are now restricted as they did all the selling. Watch the interview and not the news BS. Elon did fantastic on it and only tasted whiskey not drinking it. Funny short BS

rxlawdude | 7 septembre 2018

@Mike, this is the third time you've posted that TSLA is on the short sale restricted list. Please provide a link to an authoritative, real-time source.

Mike83 | 7 septembre 2018

You need a real time brokerage account. It's there.

EECS | 7 septembre 2018

Yeah, I feel like TSLA doesn't seem to have a light at the end of the tunnel in all this. Apparently, they still haven't sustained the 5k/week goal of Model 3's as they said they did back in July. They said they would be at 6k/week at the end of August and that's most likely not going to happen. Even if they improved Model 3 production rate from the previous quarter, it won't be as significant as they said they would meet which will bring the stock lower. Elon also announced that they would be profitable in Q3, which is going to major news if they still aren't. The constant optimistic goals are not healthy for shareholders because they eventually get bombarded by sellers/shorts driving down the stock like now.

EECS | 7 septembre 2018

I really hope they do well and just push through this time. Its terrible seeing an amazing company like Tesla be blasted constantly by terrible media with news that happened weeks ago purposefully just to tank the stock. All the autopilot incidents and such are really pathetic. If something states that it isn't able to drive on its own, it literally means it isn't able to drive on its own and you should monitor it constantly. Don't go back and sue the company for something you signed off on.

Mike83 | 7 septembre 2018

Tesla is doing so good and that is why the shorts are grasping at straws to take Elon down. His performance was excellent and the company is breaking records overtaking many ICE vehicles even.

shreerajca | 7 septembre 2018

Here is a contrarian view, Tesla stock going to 200 and languishing there for a couple of quarters could be the best thing happen to the stock. The shorters will leave it alone, the FUDsters will leave it alone.. They will move on to wreck other innovative businesses elsewhere.

Tesla could carry on focusing on and improving the efficiency and delivering the product its customers love. The company needs to spend its energy on things that matter the most.

As long as it turns cash-flow positive this quarter, stock price doesn't matter in the short-run, Tesla does not need to raise money or tap capital markets. Value investors are in it (rightly or wrongly) for a long run anyways, as any sensible investors should be (just ask Buffet). The day-to-day price volatility is just a distraction.

SamO | 7 septembre 2018

ha ha ha . . . have you ever met shorts. they believe Tesla is only a few more moments away from bankruptcy, rather than to show profit and cash flow positive the entire business at the next quarterly call.

The average sale price over the quarter will likely be over $70,000 and they will deliver 55,000 Model 3 and 25,000 Model S/X with an Average Sale Price ASP of $100,000.

$3.85 B revenue from Model 3
$2.50 B revenue from Model S/X
$6.35B revenue with at least $250M cash flow positive.
Gross margins at 18% for Model 3

Nothing that the bears say makes any sense. Demand isn't down. WW deliveries haven't commenced. There is zero competition. Zero comparable fast charging.

It is blue skies and all anyone can talk about is Kardashians.

Shock | 7 septembre 2018

LOL, keep buying that stock guyz

"Apparently, they still haven't sustained the 5k/week goal of Model 3's as they said they did back in July."

Well of course. It was so obvious (I said multiple times), that if they hit that 5,000 there's no way they'd actually make 20,000 in the following month.

Not being long or short makes predictions like this so easy because I'm not emotionally invested. That's why you have fanatics in these forums who are so utterly blinded by what they are doing with their money.

"Here is a contrarian view, Tesla stock going to 200 and languishing there for a couple of quarters could be the best thing happen to the stock. The shorters will leave it alone, the FUDsters will leave it alone."

The company is bleeding money like mad. Even if it eeks out a profit for Q3 it's going to need future capital. It absolutely will. Raising it with a $200 share price is even harder than if it tried now.

Mike83 | 7 septembre 2018

I don't mind if the shorts borrow my shares and pay me interest. Shorts must be burning cash. Up $10/share on my trade today. These shares are put away for long term capital gain.

efuseakay | 7 septembre 2018

They struggled so hard to make that 5k a week benchmark and quality suffered horribly. December is going to be quite a ride. I predict many pissed off customers as they feel they will be forced to take delivery of sub-par cars in order to qualify for the full tax credit.

Picking up my P+ in 15 hours and 52 minutes.

efuseakay | 7 septembre 2018

$80k for a car. You’re damn right I expect it to be perfect.

Mike83 | 7 septembre 2018

Our M3 and others I have seen at Superchargers have been perfect. I don't believe trolls.

CST | 7 septembre 2018

Today was a good day! To buy TSLA baby!

NKYTA | 7 septembre 2018

@Shock, run your numbers with 4,900 Model 3 produced week/week vs what @SamO said. Hmm.

“The company is bleeding money like mad.”

Yet another WTF moment. Bleeding it where? Like CA is “letting all the freshwater from the north” into the ocean?!? Your President said something along those lines. Where is the outrage?

They are “using” that money to invest in the grand goal, that includes a plethora of investments in...wait for it..Research and Development and CapEx...and gigabatteries, and that factory, and powerwalls, and yes, finally solar, and that factory.

Sure, call me a fanboi.

But this bleeding money bit. Econ 101 please.

Shock | 8 septembre 2018

@NKYTA not sure why you're tweaked over a word? If you prefer the word "burn", that seems to be the one most analysts are using:

It's a funny place we're at now. Some are thinking maybe--just maybe, fingers crossed--this quarter Tesla can make a profit, just to say it did. And if it needs to sell the kitchen sink and dim the lights to do it, by God it will.

But that's while in a unique place it won't be in six months. All it's selling now are Model 3s for an average price of over $50k. And we're still talking about maybe a tiny profit this quarter.

Wonder what that looks like when the demand for the top Model 3s is met by supply, and then they are forced to either lower production, or start actually making those $35k cars which have nothing like the margins of a $60k model 3.

But that's just FUD. Buy the dip. Great buying opportunity, just like when it hit $320, $300, $280.

Mike83 | 8 septembre 2018

NKYTA +1000 good to see someone who understands economics and growth companies.
I think Tesla will have a stellar quarter and so the FUD will escalate. Media posts nothing that is related to the company progress and it's best to avoid.

FactDoc | 8 septembre 2018

The most Intelligent man on Earth alive being bashed by corporate America and mainstream medias.
Seriously, fuck the people citing quotes out of context and out of analysis.
Journalism doesn't exist anymore, only clickbait motherfucking hunters.

Madatgascar | 8 septembre 2018

You tell 'em EV.

Madatgascar | 8 septembre 2018

Let's just go over the basics.

The future is electric - all the major players agree or at least pay lip service to this now.

All that cash Tesla "burned" (bled, burned, whatever) is now a gigafactory that produces batteries with a lower cost per kW than the competition can touch at volumes that cannot be matched in the foreseeable future because it is literally half the global output; intellectual property for connected EV cars that is light years ahead of the competition; a very large factory (4th largest building in the world) that produces EVs at gross margins that cannot be matched even by most ICE competitors; a supercharger network that validates EV ownership for long distance travel (competition? please); and a rabidly loyal base of satisfied owners that is now growing by an order of magnitude.

Tesla bet the farm on the Model 3, and the consensus was that it needed to be a hit and they needed to produce it at 5,000/ week to get over the hump. Well, it's here, and the reviews are great. The elusive 5,000 mark is 6 to 9 months later than it was supposed to be, but any intelligent observer knew to expect that. Despite the press-magnified screams over panel gaps and paint defects that I could never see in seas of Model 3's, it looks like we have a hit on our hands. Whatever you believe about production numbers, even the low estimates of Model 3 sales for August outsold ALL of BMW's cars combined.

But of course, the competition is coming. We've been hearing this for a while, haven't we? Just reread Phil LeBeau's "Look out Tesla, here comes Cadillac's ELR!" It's hilarious in hindsight. Caught totally flat-footed, now the competition is getting serious. Germans are gearing up to spend $10B, $12B, whatever on ramping up their EV programs.

Sorry, should I say "burn"? Or "bleed"?

SamO | 8 septembre 2018

Love that passion EV!

Baywood | 8 septembre 2018

The preponderance of negative news ends up displaying how desperate the shorts are. Just trying a couple of puffs of weed is enough to be the end of TSLA

SamO as many of us have run the simple numbers needed for a reality check. Elon IS selling cars are at an increasingly fast rate. Best cars on the market. Cars that are for the future, not just 2018.
The M3 margins will improve with production (surely 25% by eoy), that is a fact, so base M3 production will make sense and will be profitable.
Again, now/today, Giga is real, M3 production is real, S X sales are real, China is real, Superchargers are real, my M3 is sitting in my garage... Space X is the launch leader... solar tiles, just think about it...
The shorts ooh and aah about future Tesla killers that don’t match Range, auto update automation, grid support, batteries supply, customers, ...

Not fan boys, just customers driving cars that are great and lasting (ask Shaq)
Worth investing in TSLA.