Which version of autopilot hardware is Model Y is expected to have?

Which version of autopilot hardware is Model Y is expected to have?

Presumably, the Model Y will still go into production starting with HW version 3. But,the next version of autopilot hardware (i.e.HW3.5 or HW4) should almost be ready if it is not already ready for release. Does anyone know what autopilot HW version that the Y will start out with as it is released in March?

Haggy | 4 février 2020

It will most likely have 3. And all the software is designed for 3 so you wouldn't gain anything with 4. It's also not clear how 4 will differ from 3. In the long run, Tesla won't need hardware that's backwards compatible with old code, or any need to emulate the old hardware. So 4 could be simpler in some ways, more complicated in others, and it's not clear whether it would make sense to release it for quite a while. Designing and releasing software to work on multiple platforms is hard enough as it is that I wouldn't expect Tesla to complicate it at this point. Down the line, they could have a branch that's exclusively 3 and 4, while it might not be possible to have something that runs on 2,3 and 4. Eventually, they will have entirely separate branches for 1, 2 and 3, with less development going to older platforms that won't have to run more complex software. For those with HW 1 or 2.x, chances are that autopilot improvements will be incremental improvements rather than new features.

3 is already 20 times as powerful as 2.x where it counts. It can already handle the maximum amount of data from all sensors and cameras at maximum resolution at a high frame rate, so it might be literally impossible to have more data to process than it can handle. Down the line, 4 can be more streamlined, more energy efficient, and have other advantages, but I don't think it could really give you extra features or work better with the Y than 3.

Until Tesla says what 4 will do and why they need it, it's all speculation, but I doubt that you have anything to worry about.

bjrosen | 4 février 2020

HW4 won't happen before 2021, maybe 2022. In their Automomy day presentation they said two to three years. HW4 will probably double the size of the neural net array, that will be the big change. The difficulty for them will be keeping the chip to the same power budget. The new Nvidia chip is 320Tops vs the 140Tops in HW3 but it's also 500W vs 70W. Tesla's power budget is no more than 100W so they can't just double the gates in the processor without doing something to keep the power consumption down. In the old days a die shrink would get you more gates, faster gates and lower power but that hasn't been true for a long time. The 7nm Samsung, or perhaps TSMC, process will get them more gates but the power per gate might be higher. I'll be interested to see their presentation on HW4 when it comes out to see how they solved the problem.

RayNLA | 5 février 2020

Why would the Y have different hardware when Tesla still hasn’t upgraded everyone who purchased FSD to hardware 3?

WW_spb | 6 février 2020

I would go and predict that no new HW until CyberTruck arrival

Goodman.Larry | 6 février 2020

which brings up the question that's been in the background: Is Tesla obligated to swap out hw3 for hw4, 4 for 5, etc. up until the time that FSD is truely baked in at a high reliability level? My guess is that 3 may do the trick but maybe not quite to a that level. What would that level be? I don't recall Tesla saying anything beyond updating to 3.

This may start an interesting conversation. Love my RWD LR 3 (3/31/18) still running 2.5.

derotam | 6 février 2020

As soon as Tesla released what they define as FSD on whatever hardware, then they would have no obligation to upgrade further. It's just a matter of that full little definition of "FSD".

derotam | 6 février 2020

full little = fun little

Magic 8 Ball | 6 février 2020

I think Y comes with 4.2.

Goodman.Larry | 6 février 2020

Nah, 4.2.0. that should do it.

bjrosen | 6 février 2020

What;s the definition of Full Self Driving? Tesla will have to define it down to a level that can be met with the current hardware which won't be Level 5. The sensors simply aren't reliable enough to do anything close to Level 5 or even Level 4. Every time it rains you get messages about cameras being blocked, if the cameras aren't working the car can't drive itself. Tesla has about $700M in the bank that they can't recognize as income until they can say that FSD is complete, at some point they will have to figure out what complete really means. If it's less than Level 5, and it will be, they will have a legal problem on their hands. My guess is that they will offer refunds and hope that most people won't take them because they won't want to give up the Level 3 features that the car will have.

derotam | 6 février 2020

Tesla never related "FSD" to "Level 4" or "Level 5" People assume too much, and "assumption is the mother of all..."

shank15217 | 6 février 2020

Magic 8 Ball already has HW5 Beta 3 FW 2020.

Haggy | 6 février 2020

"The sensors simply aren't reliable enough to do anything close to Level 5 or even Level 4. Every time it rains you get messages about cameras being blocked, if the cameras aren't working the car can't drive itself. "

That would have nothing to do with a computer upgrade. It's also not clear what the limitation is. I don't doubt that they get some degree of distortion with a wet camera lens, and that the confidence level will be lower until they have enough testing, or specific changes in algorithms to account for distortion. The system clearly works well enough to know that the camera lens got wet, and Tesla clearly knows that it has an effect, so I have no reason to think that they can't get it fixed.