Mollom blocked my material, keep trying
Has Tesla stopped taking orders after the 373,000?
Will there be a rash of orders around the 2nd reveal?
GUESS HOW MANY
Should one order now to beat the crush?
Will there be even bigger lines to order?
Ross, sometimes I can't quite work out whether you are being deliberately obtuse or not. But assuming you are being serious...
No Tesla has not stopped taking reservations for Model 3, as a very quick visit to the Tesla website shows:
And no, there won't be "even bigger lines" to order after the second reveal, because you order online. Tesla only took instore reservations prior to the first reveal, and will not do so again. But I do agree there will be a rash of orders around the 2nd reveal, particularly if Tesla has firmer data about when deliveries will start in each region.
My prediction is that there will be very few new orders through the Tesla website - as hundreds of thousands of people purchase James Pash's 03/31 place in line. Even with a very reasonable price of $100 per shot, James will very easily afford the Model S that he wants and stick enough extra away to retire. He will be long gone before Fall 2017.
400 000 extra
Ross: There will be somewhere between 3 and 1,000,000 new Reservations by October 1, 2017.
I hate to see James disappoint all of them, reservations are NON transferable !
It must be true because I read it on the internet.
I believe no news article has reached me which ups the no. of orders from 373 k.
The news still say there are 373k orders, less cancellations.
Wikipedia also has no reports of more orders and cites 'as of 15 May' there were 373k etc.
Obtuse if you like :)
@Red.. is 1 million your best effort?
You are talking late next year.
The orders so far are from people who have both heard of Tesla and are Tesla fans.
Outside California and across the world it is not even a ripple.
'No one' has even heard of Tesla yet
Mollom blocked me again because of a semi-colon
"Should one order now to beat the crush?"
No, one should order now if one wants the car.
And one wants delivery roughly late 2018 / early 2019. Wait to order if one wants delivery later than that.
Thank you kindly.
@Ross - "no news article has reached me which ups the no. of orders from 373 k." That's because Tesla is not providing a running total. They might update the reservation number at the next investor call, or they might not. It is up to them. They are under no obligation to do so.
But to conclude Tesla has "stopped taking orders" simply because they haven't updated the number is ridiculous. Particularly when a quick website visit proves anyone can make a reservation. Even you, Ross, could have done some basic checking to verify that.
There will most likely be a reveal part 2 bump but maybe only 50,000-100,000 in the succeeding ~month. Much less than the reveal part 1 spike.
I will say 259-300,000 and won't be surprised if it's more.
Demand is not the issue right now. The Unbeiling, Part 2 may be kind of a let down actually. I imagine the final version, of course, but other than a similar breakdown w/ 0-60 times and Autopilot updates, I don't actually expect much. I'm thinking more like the Model X event.
I still wonder if they'll pull the Model Y out of their hat to move reservations out a bit. They could say transfer your reservation to Model Y and be "first" in line but it's coming out in "about two years." It's not the way the Model X worked, but it could get them some breathing room while also pulling in 200K more reservations.
Has Tesla stopped taking orders after the 373,000?
Looks like a question from here, and I wrote it. No conclusion drawn.
It is up to you lot to say yes or no or dont know or nothing or plastic cats.
So am I back in your good book?
" I don't actually expect much."
Elon disagrees, and is in the position to know. He thought that the second reveal would be double or triple the first reveal. Hard to know if the first reveal encompassed all the demand that he was expecting for the second. But I don't think we can conclude that it will be boring.
I think Elon and I are right.
The "don't expect much" I was referring to was the content of the presentation, not the number of reservations. I fully expect there to be another big jump in reservations after "The Unveiling, Part 2" happens.
I re-watched the Model X reveal yesterday. The basic outline was this:
1) Safety First - much better than competition, crash results, star rating primer, active safety (AP)
2) Air Filters - BioWeapon Defense Mod, jokes about VW #DieselGate
3) Cool Doors & Windshield - invisible chauffeur, Pano Windshield, Falcon Wing Doors
4) Cool 2nd-row Seats
5) What can it hold? - towing, luggage, 7 people, hitch rack
6) Performance - 90D 4.8s 0-60, 257 miles, AWD; P90DL 3.2s 0-60, 250 miles, AWD
Elon spent about 90 seconds on Performance section: two slides and a few talking points. If we predict what Part 2 will be like, it could be equally brief on Performance section.
1) Safety First - AP 2.0 (may be released in MS/MX first)
2) Air Filters (maybe)
3) Cool Roof
4) Cool Dash
5) What can it hold? - 5 people, towing (maybe hitch accessories only), luggage, hitch rack, trunk w/ fold-down rear seats
Then summary of Fremont production improvements, Gigafactory, Supercharger Network and Service Centers.
It will be interesting to see how they handle the glut of reservations. Will it be a "We've cranked up production, so reserve now to get one 'soon'" call to action or a "(cough) reserve-at-tesla-dot-com (cough)" little footnote approach? How they promote the reservation count will be telling too.
P.S. The easy way to remember how to spell "Jeffrey" is that it has two syllables, JEFF-REY.
JeffreyR: I'm thinking, "Whether you reserve tonight or not will likely determine if your car is among the first 500,000 built, or the second..."
are you sure?
By the time we latecomers receive M3s, even if we order before the 2nd reveal, there will be a lot more choice in the market
"The "don't expect much" I was referring to was the content of the presentation, not the number of reservations."
Which is what I addressed. Elon thought that the second reveal would double or triple the number of orders. Do you think that the content of the presentation was going to be BORING, and THAT would double or triple the number of orders? No, He thinks reveal 2 will be amazing, twice tor three times as amazing as reveal 1.
Not boring just light on details. In other words like the MX there will still be plenty of questions remaining after Part 2 to keep are speculative juices going.
Ross: There will be 'a lot more' hybrids on the market.
I would order now if you live in Ontario. The rebate ends by 2020.
" In other words like the MX there will still be plenty of questions remaining after Part 2 to keep are speculative juices going."
Hard to argue with that. Elon could talk from now until then, and people would still be asking questions...
Tesla is not averse to taking larger deposits, read $40,000 for Model X in one iteration.
The next batch of orders ought to require a higher deposit, 5 or 10 k.
(Shareholder, and I just bought more.)