If Tesla plans to produce 500,000 per year by 2018, they better be able to produce 83,000 in 5 months.
Interesting that it states 83000 "Deliveries" not production. I am guessing that a really smooth ramp could produce 99000 by the end of 2017. However, accounting for the delivery time, 83000 would be consistent.
This is exactly according to the plan Elon predicted.
Teslarati had a similar article.
83K Model 3 deliveries may well come out of the factory by end of year, but I doubt it will have anything to do with the logic applied in this analysis. They are making their forecast based in large part on the production potential of the old NUMMI plant.
The production potential of the old NUMMI plant?
What does that have to do with the price of bananas on the moon?
I am guessing that in a smooth ramp-up;
2000 in July
5000 in August
21000 in September
6000 (average) per week in Q4 (78000)
99000 this year in production. Maybe optimistic but doable based on the numbers presented.
Ya, i wasnt disagreeing nor making another statement. I was just agreeing basically affirming that if the prediction from the article is suggesting 83,000, im being facetious in saying "no kidding" they better be able to if their goal by 2018 is 500k.
Teslanomics seems to be right in line with this result, though perhaps for different reasons...
[ YouTube -- WbzST5TAlEo ]
I am actually very surprised that so many are coming up with this number for Deliveries this year. Even I try to be a bit conservative in that regard myself. So though I personally expect to see on the order of 80,000+ units of Model ☰ Delivered in 2017, I would be perfectly happy with anything over 50,000 units reaching the hands of new owners this calendar year.
At one point last year Elon Musk said he wanted to try to reach Production of 100,000 to 200,000 units of Model ☰ during 2017. I always point out that Capacity, Production, and Deliveries (Sales) are all different things. Production is typically a bit less than Capacity, and Deliveries are usually a little less than Production. If Production can be 90% of Capacity, and Deliveries can be 80% of Production, Tesla will be in very good shape. Meaning some of the cars Produced during late 2017 won't actually be Delivered until early 2018. And that's fine.
I absolutely disagree with the ANALysts that insist Tesla will miss their target for Deliveries by anywhere from 75%-to-99%. Those guys are smoking crack and liking it way too much.
Since there were 115,000 reservations received by their evening of March 31, not all reservation holders as of that time will received their 3 before the end of January, 2018, even if 10% cancel, if Tesla's 2017 deliveries are in the 80,000 area. That is, unless a large number of them hold put for AWD or some other option not offered initially.
"That is, unless a large number of them hold put for AWD or some other option not offered initially."
Perhaps that was the plan.
@ReD eXiLe ms us - plenty of ANALysts, FUDsters and $h0r+s were predicting with supreme and unshakeable confidence that Tesla would deliver exactly ZERO Model 3s in 2017.
Can we start a wall of shame for them? Take out a full-page ad in the WSJ? That'd be fun.
I came up with a similar number by looking at the material order rates that Elon stated during one of the calls. If they get much behind that rate, they start warehousing a lot of parts.
These numbers also fit with the messaging of test drives toward the end of the year. If they ramp up well, and sell all of them in the US, they probably hit 200,000 before the end of the year. It may be wishful thinking, but if they hold just short of 200,000 US deliveries, and fill the showrooms with demo units, and maybe begin Canadian deliveries they can preserve the full tax credit for the first half of next year, thus maximizing the number of buyers eligible for it.
Then they can resume US deliveries immediately after the new year.
Keep in mind those 83,000 would be strictly US deliveries. I thought they would not do non US deliveries until next summer.
I'm wondering if I could make some $$ offering test drives once I get my 3? Interesting thought....as they likely will be very hard to come by early on.
Also - no idea how many of the initial reservations were international versus domestic -- but being that the reveal was in the middle of the night for Europe -- my bet is no more than 40%
@ noleaf4me, interesting idea on test drives. Perhaps a Lyft/Uber type system until supply exceeds demand. That might work to my advantage seeing as how I was a late on reserving and live in flyover country. If Tesla wanted to get a loaner fleet to all areas of the country, my willingness to allow my Model 3 for test drives in Arkansas might move me up in the queue.