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Cancellations vs. New Orders since launch

Cancellations vs. New Orders since launch

I see that some have cancelled their reservation for various reasons since the launch event Tuesday. Does anyone know if there has been a surge in new orders since the launch?Based on all of the favorable reviews, I would guess that new orders would greatly exceed cancellations, but I have not seen any numbers.

TeslaTap.com | 4 octobre 2015

I very much doubt Tesla will publish such numbers. There is no benefit to do so.

It does appear that Model S orders have gone up. Perhaps some X reservation holders were on the fence and don't want to wait 6 months and/or the price is too high and have switched to an S.

Tâm | 4 octobre 2015

Unless you are high executives, I don't think anyone has access to those numbers.

We are even kept in the dark with its simple monthly car sales figures that you can easily get from other car companies.

Even though we do not know exact numbers, but a rough guess would be:

Cancellation in Tesla world is statistically insignificant because demands exceed supply.

Even if there would be massive cancellations from the X, it just re-directs the sales to the S:

"Tesla held an event this week to mark the launch of the long-awaited Model X. The event also buoyed sales and interest in the Model S, Musk said.

"We were worried that maybe there would be some cannibalization of Model S orders," Musk said, speaking during an event in New York held by SolarCity Corp., a solar energy company of which Musk also serves as chairman. “But [people] probably went to the website and saw there’s a one-year wait” for the crossover and ordered the sedan instead."

http://www.autonews.com/article/20151002/OEM05/151009936/musk-tesla-mode...(Automotive+News+Breaking+News+Feed)

Jonathangarner | 4 octobre 2015

Thanks. I understand that Tesla won't give us the numbers. Perhaps some people with recent orders will chime in with their reservation numbers.

Tâm | 4 octobre 2015

@Jonathangarner

If you read those canceled reservation holders, they don't complain that Model X is a bad car.

They don't complain that they dislike the car.

They are not sour grapes!

As a matter of fact they love the car very much.

They want Tesla to succeed and make others happy.

They are just very much disappointed that one or very few criterias for their buying decision was not met.

Most people are not that choosy.

Most people are just happy that there were only 1 few unmet features.

Thus, to answer your post again:

Cancellation in Tesla world is statistically insignificant because demands exceed supply.

Jonathangarner | 4 octobre 2015

I agree that the number of cancellations (due to preferences such as non folding second row seats) are likely not significant and irrelevant in the big scheme of things. My hope is that the positive reviews have resulted in a surge in new orders.

Tâm | 4 octobre 2015

@Jonathangarner

Your hope of X order surge is consistent with what Elon expected:

"We were worried that maybe there would be some cannibalization of Model S orders,"

But his expectation of cannibalization is not realized.

From what he described, I interpret it as: instead of getting a surge in X orders, that surge actually re-directs to S' orders instead.

NumberOne | 4 octobre 2015

One thing that I feel have prompted people to cancel reservations is the price. No everyone is willing to pay $132K+ so there are probably a few Sig cancellations that simply decided they would rather go for a regular production model instead. There is a difference between what people can afford VS what they are willing to pay, and the latter probably is in a few cases here.

As far as getting information from people good luck. Most people will not get their actual reservation number, but only the RN number which is now the only number displayed on the My Tesla page. The pace of reservations probably picked up after the launch even, but will really take off once people start seeing Model X in the streets. The wait will be about a year for some time to come. Perhaps at the end of year two, the waiting period will be 2-3 months like it is with Model S at the moment.

I am really glad now that I reserved in 2012.

Tâm | 4 octobre 2015

@LeonardD

Actually, if you have money and want full loaded Signature Series P90D Model X, it's $1,500 cheaper than a comparable General Production P85 Model S.

Source:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/54868-Very-Difficult-decis...

Tâm | 4 octobre 2015

Sorry, missing the D typo:

General Production P85D Model S.

NumberOne | 4 octobre 2015

@Tâm True, but if you think back, the Sig Model S was closer to $100k than the current P90D I am not saying people cannot afford it, but I am saying that some (i.e. not all) Sig reservation holders were not expecting to pay as much. Also, the Dual motor system with Insane and Ludicrous modes were not available or known about when many made there reservations.

It is not a matter of what people can afford but rather how much they are willing to pay. Some simply feel they do not want to spend $30k-$40k more for a car for features that they neither need nor want. I personally can afford pretty much any car I want, but the only P am interested is practicality. There are more than enough people who want to go from 0 to 60 in either 3.8 or 3.2 seconds, so the few cancellations they will have will make little difference to Tesla.

Big T | 4 octobre 2015

Who doesn't remember the umpteen threads about not being willing to buy a Model S because it didn't have one feature or another. Console, lighted visor mirrors, cup holders, ventilated seats, and so on. If you wanted to buy one you just overlooked those minor omissions. A tricked out 2016 Mercedes GL550 has many features not found in the Model X. But it's still just an another ICE.

AlMc | 4 octobre 2015

Even though I am one who canceled an order I agree that cancelations are of little/no concern to TM. Based on how many people I saw at the order table during the X reveal event I would think that new reservations far (5-10x..IMO) exceed cancelations.

While no one has the hard facts I would venture to say that cancelations were more motivated by a lack of certain feature(s) than money. I believe TM had been pretty clear all along that the X would exceed a comparably equipped S by less than $10K. So, I don't think too many were overly surprised by the price tag...at least I was not.

Red Sage ca us | 4 octobre 2015

Wasn't a fully loaded Model S P85+ around $125,000 for the longest time?

carlk | 4 octobre 2015

My P85+ was $122K before tax. I did not click every option that was there.

Red Sage ca us | 4 octobre 2015

Typically, those that touched or exceeded $125,000 had included the third row jumpseats for Model S P85+. So, the much larger, dual motor Model X P90D with full sized third row for $7,000 more should be perfectly acceptable. Especially since it has a 3.8 second 0-60 MPH time.

NumberOne | 5 octobre 2015

The main thing is that there is not only one reason for those who cancel. Some, like still like the car, and the cost is less important than some of the utilitarian features.

Tâm | 5 octobre 2015

@LeonardD

True. So far, all citations from canceled reservation holders are because of their specific individual needs are unmet, NOT because of money.

That makes sense if money is tight, they would be General Production Reservation Holders instead of Signature Series's.

carlk | 5 octobre 2015

@RS Yes the XP90D is a much better deal than what I had a year and half ago. Much better seats, the extra moter and power not to mention the cool FWD all come without extra charge.

@LeonardD Cost is always a factor and usually a significant if not the most important factor. That's way it should be. Think about it you can even make your own custom seats anyway you like if money is no object. The only reason for people who cancel is they don't think it's not money worth spending either for buying the car or for any after market modifications.

CraigW | 5 octobre 2015

FWD??? FWD would seem to be forward wheel drive and will be easily confused by the general public. I would think bloggers should discontinue this acronym. Is this the Gull Wings? Or what.

JeffreyR | 5 octobre 2015

@CraigW

I am often a little to "careful" when it comes to usage. But on this forum (no bloggers here) there are no front-wheel drive cars to speak of, only Falcon Wing Doors.

Don't forget context (forum, thread or post). We often see SC for Supercharger or Service Center. Most use SoC for State of Charge.

Sleepydoc1 | 5 octobre 2015

I agree with AIMc. From what I saw at the event, there were people completing orders even before the 'Elon show' started. I didn't stick around to watch afterwards, since I was waiting for my test ride. Some saying they cancelled probably truly cancelled, while others may just be trying to poison the waters for one reason or other.

X Res #14,xxx and hoping for 2016!

WSE51 | 6 octobre 2015

ModelXTracker.com currently has 1,007 registered people who say they have a MX on order; of those 81 said they have configured and 15 said they have cancelled. That would give a cancellation rate of 15/(15+85) = 16.7%

This is by no means a scientific number because anyone can register on this website and there is no way to verify with Tesla that the person is really a MX reservation holder. There could be serious reporting biases though I am not sure in which direction. One could argue that a person who cancels their order is more likely to report it to register their disappointment in the design/features; or you could argue that they are less likely to report it because they are not invested in the Tesla community and wouldn't put the time into contributing to the group's knowledge.

Also, only a small portion of the 1,200-odd Signature holders in the US have registered on ModelXTracker.com, the great majority are Production reservation holders, so the sample size isn't large.

Nevertheless, I think looking at the data over time as it develops gives us some information. I've been watching the cancellation numbers for the past two weeks and they seem to be holding at about 15-18%.

NumberOne | 6 octobre 2015

@WSE51. I have also been looking at the figures and have compared the reservation numbers to see if all of those who have cancelled also entered reservation info only a small number did. The same applies to those who configured vs entered reservations and orders. The only useful date I see coming out of this site is the speed of the production ramp.

Pungoteague_Dave | 8 octobre 2015

@RS "Typically, those that touched or exceeded $125,000 had included the third row jumpseats for Model S P85+. So, the much larger, dual motor Model X P90D with full sized third row for $7,000 more should be perfectly acceptable. Especially since it has a 3.8 second 0-60 MPH time."

Source? My P85D had every option except rear facing seats and cost $132k before taxes, etc. Many were configured this way. I suspect that the majority of car owners in the $100k+ rang see extra seats as irrelevant. Regular soccer moms do not buy $100k SUVs. People seem to forget that average household income in the U.S. is around $43k for a family of four. These people barely can stretch for a mundane minivan. Tesla is WAY out over its skis on this one.

Red Sage ca us | 13 octobre 2015

Pungoteague_Dave: Please check what you quoted closely. P... 8... 5... +. No bloody A, B, C, or D. 3.8 seconds is less than 4.2/4.4 seconds. Two front facing adult seats are larger than two rear facing jump seats. 90 kWh is more than 85 kWh. 22" wheels are larger than 21". 9" ground clearance is more than 4.5". So a slightly higher price on Model X P90D, compared to the amount paid 18 months ago for Model S P85+ is absolutely appropriate. I won't call you Shirley, but I'm certain you will admit your Model S P85D cost more than a comparably equipped Model S P85+. Thus, no need for source, correction, or chastisement by you.

Plenty of people buy gas guzzling SUVs that can conceivably cost them thousands of dollars over the ownership period. The more miles driven, the worse the fuel economy, the more the cost per gallon, the higher the advantage for EVs. No version of a Porsche Cayenne gets Prius level fuel economy -- not even the $62,300 Cayenne Diesel.