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How many will be produced in 2015?

How many will be produced in 2015?

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/07/08/how-many-model-x-units-...

Based on all of what you've heard so far, how many will be produced if everything is on track?

Would the article's prediction be reasonable or baseless: As low as 5,000 and as high as 12,000?

ken | 9 juillet 2015

Obviously,no one knows for sure but, it looks pretty accurate to me. I think they will produce all of the Signature model X's late in Q3 and start general production in Q4. It is reasonable to believe that they can produce 1,000 to 1,200 per week unless some production problem is encountered. However, keep in mind that they only count as sold when they are paid for and delivered to the buyer, so there is some gap between manufactured and delivered, and there is the Christmas Holiday at the end of the year. Only my opinion.

Red Sage ca us | 9 juillet 2015

Meh. Elon Musk said the ~55,000 amount was a goal the Model S alone could meet this year, in terms of Deliveries. If the initial Deliveries of Model X were in July 2015, I would have very high hopes for over 15,000 being Produced this year, and over 12,000 being Delivered, ie 'Sold'. But if the first Delivery of Model X is not until the last week of Summer 2015, on/about September 17-22, then even an aggressive ramp up will be unlikely to see 10,000 Deliveries. In fact, pushed out that far, 2015 may not get even 10,000 produced, and less than 7,500 Delivered. Unless, of course, a huge percentage of Model X reservation holders are residents of the Great State of California.

vperl | 9 juillet 2015

I have posted many, many times in past months the total MX produced in 2015 will be under 5K.

Why keep asking the same questions.. Read earlier posts on subject.

ken | 9 juillet 2015

@Tâm, please ignore vperl's sarcasm, you have a very legitimate question, and I believe that the chart that you posted is pretty accurate. If the unveiling of the MX is in July, as many of us think it will be, then the chart may be too conservative and Red Sage may well be correct in estimating that 10,000 to 15,000 MX's may be built in 2015. Delivery depends on a lot of other factors.

Red Sage ca us | 9 juillet 2015

A strong indicator of how 'on track' the Model X is will be the number of them Delivered at the reveal. If at least 100 Owners, who are not employees of Tesla Motors, take delivery the first day, then I predict 75% of US Reservation holders will get their cars by Christmas 2015. If only 8-12 people get their Model X on day one, then US Reservations will still be getting Delivered in March 2016.

georgehawley.fl.us | 9 juillet 2015

Likely the lower end of the 5K-12K range delivered.
@vperl was can early estimator at 5K FWIW.

David Trushin | 9 juillet 2015

Don't know about you folks, but it took me about a month to 6 weeks between test driving to finalizing order. I don't think they 2ill have enough in the pipeline to sustain that high a production unless they already have half of them spec'd out. My guess is 1500 max delivered by Dec 31.

georgehawley.fl.us | 9 juillet 2015

@David: it is in everyone's best interest to ramp up the X production rate as quickly as they can. Elon seems confident that the ramp can be much faster than for the Model S 3 years ago. They have a really comprehensive grasp of what it takes to make a modern vehicle. They have three years experience with the Model S. The X will share many subsytems--cabling, software, firmware and electronics with the S. There is every reason to share Elon's confidence in attaining a rapid ramp to 1,000+ per week. That having been said, Murphy lurks in unseen corners of every factory. :-))

vperl | 9 juillet 2015

Ken, you need to get out of your mommie basement. All your "if " stuff is comic. Again, children. No more than 5K MX will be built in 2015.

Ken, " if " you had a brain.

Tâm | 9 juillet 2015

@vperl

I appreciate your input and apologize for my short attention span.

I am looking for a theoretical number that should be based on latest evidences to support it.

The article laid out its rationales as below:

1) In Q3 of 2014 earnings report: Tesla's 2015 Model S (alone, no X) guidance was 50,000.

2) In Q4 of 2014 earnings report: Tesla's 2015 Model S AND Model X combined guidance was 55,000.

If you take the latest combined S + X guidance of 55,000 and subtract the older guidance of Model S of 50,000 from it: Thus, the number 5,000 for 2015 minimally.

3) In Q1 of 2015 earnings call: Musk expects Model X ramp up as much as 2X other quarters in Q4.

Current average Model S delivery is 11,500 per quarter plus a few hundred more for Q3's last month.

And the article calculates Model X number as 12,000 for 2015.

4) It's quite pointless for any kind of prediction here because there are so many other factors in real life to easily change it.

However, it's nice to get some current updates while waiting.

Red Sage ca us | 9 juillet 2015

All the world resides within the realm of 'if'.

• If Tesla Motors is able to Deliver ~70% or more of the Model X they Produce during 2015...

• If Tesla Motors is able to reach an 800-1,000 unit per week Capacity of Model X, and a similar Production rate, by December 2015...

• If Tesla has distributed Model X demonstrators to all their US showrooms by the first week of October...

And so on... The launch of Model X can still be tremendously successful... Perhaps matching or exceeding Cayenne and Q7. US sales before the year is over.

timf2001 | 9 juillet 2015

The problem is the vagueness of "deliveries start late Q3". Most people assume this means Signatures, but it could be only Founders with Signatures not following until a month or two later. We should know for sure by the end of the month. No Design Studio, no Signature deliveries in September. If that happens, we're likely looking at no more than 2,000-3,000 Model X delivered this year. The good news is once they're fully ramped up it will only take about a quarter to get through all current reservations.

georgehawley.fl.us | 10 juillet 2015

If they can build 1,000 a week with >20K reservations, it might take a little longer than 13 weeks. If the early owners create a positive buzz around the X, new reservations could start piling in to fulfill Tesla's hopes. If not and a lot of people ask for refunds, Tesla may have to start advertising by mid-2016. My feeling is that people are going to be raving about the X. There will be videos galore of the performance model out-dueling corvettes.
Sales will be brisk. Safest, fastest, most fun, most technologically advanced, most economical to drive, easiest to get in and out of 7 passenger high-end Crossover on the planet. And it will have a little frunk of its own to boot so to speak.

vandacca | 10 juillet 2015

When you can actually touch and test-drive a vehicle, and the true decision makers get a chance to experience it, then thats when you'll start to see sales begin to increase. The Model-X is supposedly being marketed to women.

ian t.wa.us | 10 juillet 2015

Just checked. Nope. Still a dude. ;-)

David Trushin | 12 juillet 2015

I'm not saying they can't produce 1700 a month. All I'm saying is that I'm not convince they will have enough orders finalized by the end of september to sustain that production level without building spec cars. It all depends on when they open up the design studio and get the test drives going. It's 9 weeks to the last wee of 3Q and I believe the model S latency is 6 weeks from order finalization to delivery. So, just ballparking it, they have to get 5000 orders finalized between now an mid November. 18 weeks and decreasing every day that the design studio is not open.

I'm not sure it's as important to the stock to deliver 5000 this year as it is to start deliveries before the end of Sept and to deliver 55,000 cars in 2015.

dbh | 15 juillet 2015

Is there any hope reservation #10,000 (approx) will be produced in 2015? Nobody knows I suppose...but current reservations say "early 2016" and there are at least 18k reservations in the US currently on the list, right? "Early 2016" means to me by Apr 30 at the latest, so if deliveries start 9/1 and the new reservation date suggests that 18k will be delivered by Apr 30...maybe it's not impossible at relatively linear production rate. Seems a bit unlikely, but tax considerations might make 2015 delivery preferable...

Then again, the car is already going to be, what, a year later than expected when I reserved in May 2014? So maybe "early 2016" is far from the truth for new reservations too...

timf2001 | 15 juillet 2015

I'm in the same neighborhood as you and not counting on mine until February or March.

dbh | 15 juillet 2015

Of course - it would figure that it comes at the very end of ski season (says a guy who put down the deposit on the X because of AWD, then gave up waiting and bought a RWD model S anyway, only to have the S85D be announced about 6 weeks after taking delivery of the regular S85 without autopilot hardware...ha ha)

vperl | 16 juillet 2015

Smokem if you got them.

Sack up, no more than 5K X produced in 2015.