Tesla Stock jump today (4/16/13)

Tesla Stock jump today (4/16/13)

Anyone know what's causing Tesla stock to jump today? (4/16/13) It's up 2 1/2 points, but I haven't heard any specific news to tie to the jump. That's a pretty big jump in a day without some kind of very positive announcement, review, article, etc. Not that I'm complaining, I think it's great :) Just wondering...

celtrog | 16 avril 2013

shorts are getting squeezed

Brian H | 16 avril 2013

The implication of the p85 loaners is that TM has caught up to demand, and is filling all orders (in North America) immediately.

Will advertising begin soon?

herkimer | 16 avril 2013

Are you sure that's the implication?
Maybe the p85 loaners ARE advertising....

jat | 16 avril 2013

@BrianH - not caught up, but close -- on the order page, it tells you the wait times are 1-3 months depending on how you configure.

caolivieri | 16 avril 2013

They probably have a bunch of cars that didn't pass QC for customer delivery by now, those would make perfect loaners.

jat | 16 avril 2013

@caollvieri - the loaners are all P85s.

amirm | 16 avril 2013

The fact that they caught up with demand may suggest that they are not getting a good enough order flow. This could be negative for stock. | 16 avril 2013

per 4traders: "As customers who note their Model S serial number this weekend will realize, vehicle deliveries (sales) exceeded 4,750 units vs. the 4,500 unit prior outlook. As a result, Tesla is amending its Q1 guidance to full profitability, both GAAP and non-GAAP."

TheAustin | 16 avril 2013

But Kevin, didn't they announce that a week or two ago?

shop | 16 avril 2013

It is possible the shorts are finally bailing. Over at TMC, there is a discussion about some very odd trading behavior shorting the stock.

ArieK | 16 avril 2013

I think the jump might be because Elon is taking his fight with the dealers associations to Washington DC and the market is liking it !

ThomasK | 16 avril 2013

Tesla did advertise, sort of. Did you guys watch MadMen? It was a featured company on a NASDAQ spot.

fluxemag | 16 avril 2013

The stock was relatively strong yesterday too during the big selloff. The short interest was still at 31M shares on 3/28, which was the last update and near the historical high. I'd be very interested to see what that number is the next time NASDAQ publishes it (should be today or tomorrow). My gut feel is this is short covering, so I would guess that 31M number will be much lower. If it isn't much lower, hang on!

I don't have any key info, but based on all the hype for the financing and other announcements, along with the shortened wait time, the backlog must be pretty small now. Not to mention the factory taking a week off. The fact that they can do 500/wk, and the fact that they want a small backlog either means they are executing to plan, or new order flow pace has dropped off. It looks like all is according to plan, with European deliveries kicking in right when US reservations dwindle. Then start advertising with hype, test drives etc.

We know that the pace of new orders slowed right after the price increase. They appeared to be stabilizing when Tesla stopped publishing the reservation numbers in the US. This could be for a number of reasons, including not wanting their order book open to the public any longer, or the fact that the reservation number never really meant the order in which you would receive the car. European orders still look strong.

They announced 80 loaners, that's a little over a day's worth of production, so not a huge deal.

I'm still long, at this point in good enough shape to cover my sales tax on the MS if I sold. It's fun to think of all the reasons for short term moves, but I'll probably own this for 5-10 years so it's really irrelevant.

David59 | 16 avril 2013

Considering that the stock is heading to somewhere over $400 in the next few years we should expect many more days like today along the way. | 16 avril 2013

@TheAustin-- maybe so (I'm in long so don't watch too closely). There were 2 articles citing this today so I thought this might be the daily buzz.

jk2014 | 16 avril 2013

I don't we've received the service announcement. The loaner news was just a glimpse at one aspect. Not the official announcement. Don't think Elon's renewed focus on service concluded with the loaner idea he stole from Lexus.

The loaners don't mean demand met, that's crazy talk Brian H. Recent stock movement is all about covering. Average daily trade volume has jumped up 1m in past couple weeks. Very abnormal. Also anticipation about the real service announcement and supercharger announcement soon. Follow that up with in early may with Q1 report and outlook and this might be a good period of optimistic investing. (Which could also reflect increasing demand.) I also think the local tv news reports in Texas were very good. Made tesla look great, so maybe the exposure brought in new investors to add to the covering action.

Calvin Klesmith | 16 avril 2013

Well Europe deliveries start in June so that might be why the wait time is short right now

amir | 16 avril 2013

I am very excited about the car and think the stock could do well in the long term. However, a lot of the upside is already reflected in the price and there many downside risks that could cause a major hit. I took a factory tour in February when I picked up my car and I have to admit it looked like a (big) start-up. The 2 major risks are: 1) They find a HW issue and need to do a big recall while in the process of trying to push 500 cars per week. 2) They don't generate 500 orders per week (the reduction in wait time is already pointing there). Either one of these could be a big problem...
Bottom line: I think Tesla stock will do very well but i am not ready to buy it at current level.

herkimer | 16 avril 2013

Bottom line: if you really think that Tesla is going to do well, and you want to do well along with them, then now would be the time to buy.

There will never be a time of no risk, but long term the upside from early in the trajectory is much better.

Follow the trajectory of Apple over 10 or 20 years, where naysayers kept on holding out every time the company innovated - many are still holding out - as the company and the stock grew and grew, and the world changed. All the while early shareholders have done very well! I was one of those who held out on Apple. Decided not to get in when I had a chance very early. Still think about how I missed that. Didn't even think about it until years later, at a moment that it was no longer in reach. Early on all I heard were the nay-sayers -- a "mouse" is ridiculous! Never gonna work! And why would anyone pay more for a wimpy mac? Iphone will never succeed against Blackberry, etc. On and on, all the things that could go wrong! All the scathing reviews! All the prognosis of demise, but Apple still thrives. Seems to me that there is a similarity to Tesla.

There will always be a strong nay-saying argument or two. The question is how do you feel about it? Do you believe in Tesla and what they are doing? Do you think this is the game changing company they intend to be? If you do, then buy in a little, make a start and watch it grow. Don't have to put all your eggs in.

On the other hand, if you really think their downfall could be imminent, because they are a startup in a challenging industry, then don't buy, or buy short! You will not be alone, there have been a lot of nay-sayers, and a lot of short interest.

Needless to say, so far it has not gone well for shorts and nay-sayers! Today was brutal for them, and on no particular news, except Elon's big fight with Big Auto Dealership Associations! Go Tesla!

But really, if Tesla Motors excites you and makes you think they have what it takes, why wait? Tesla has taken on the challenge and is going forward, with a lot of brilliant and capable people, and one brilliant and capable product, with an enormous facility and plans to expand quickly, want to participate?

eAdopter | 16 avril 2013

+1 Exactly. Like he said, add a reasonable number of TSLA to your portfolio. Put sime in your ROTH so you can use a little of the upside to buy a Tesla in a few years. Sure, you could lose a little. It's more likely you'll gain a lot over the next 10-20 years.

eAdopter | 16 avril 2013

"sime"? some

good grief

shop | 16 avril 2013

Uhm, Apple was seriously on the ropes if you go back 20+ years. They essentially got a bailout by Microsoft at one point.

Anyways, my problem with Tesla right now is in fact demand. But not demand for 2013 - that's in the can already with North America and Europe. The question is how will Tesla drive demand in 2014? Will they have to resort to expensive marketing? Will that eat into their margins enough to seriously dent profitability? Will 2014 outlook matter at all to the stock price in the next 6 months? I'm not enough of a car analyst or stock market pro to answer those questions...

jat | 16 avril 2013

I have enough invested in Tesla's success by owning a Model S that will be worth a lot less and potentially a problem getting parts/maintenance for it if Tesla goes under, so I feel no need to buy a risky stock however bullish I might feel about the company's success.

herkimer | 16 avril 2013

@shop Yes, Apple was up and down, but those who hung on profited, those who bailed or held back, did not. Those who played the daily changes had mixed results unless they were really good or really lucky.

With Tesla, I don't believe there exists any car analyst or stock market pro who will be able to answer the questions you raise about future demand, because there is no real precedent for what Tesla is doing and the way they are doing it. I think that the more Model S there are on the roads and streets the more demand will rise, and with direct sales, no dealerships, the sales process is streamlined and efficient. It seems to me to be more than anecdotal that the car sells itself quite well. It is not competing simply with high-end BMW, Mercedes, or Lexus, the Model S is bringing in very diverse buyer profiles, many of them far from being traditional high-end lux car owners, others of course, have long been devoted fans of great cars and now have found one that rivals the best.

I would say that the revolution that Tesla represents, as well as the innovative engineering, and challenging business model is proving to be very attractive to buyers who would never consider a comparable luxury ICE vehicle, and that is how Tesla has already become the #1 Luxury car maker in the US. How big is this market? No car analyst or stock pro will be able to tell you, because it is unprecedented. I think it is reasonable to assume that the market is already well beyond 2013 production in the US and Europe, and that the more people know and see the cars, the more demand will rise. Do I have a crystal ball? No, of course not. But based on performance so far, and the testimony of so many happy, devoted Tesla owners, I'd say the chances are better than 50-50 Tesla is here to stay, and those who get in early will enjoy the ride!

Don't think they will have to resort to expensive advertising for awhile, as they continue to expand stores and service centers, sell and service more cars and put in supercharging stations. Soon there will be more used Tesla Model S's around and the price will also become accessible to more people. Once you drive the car its hard to go back, and so loyalty is likely to follow. I am already reading of owners who are ordering a second Model S.

Not saying there isn't risk or won't be ups and downs, but it looks like a good risk to me, especially if you really support the electric car revolution and this disruptive technology...But that's just my take, not an expert on cars or stocks.

Brian H | 16 avril 2013

Do you ever listen to Elon? He specifically said the reason they couldn't provide MS loaners earlier was that customers were waiting for every car, but now they had enough production slack to make 80 dedicated cars. Your opinions are often loud, but seldom accurate.

As you allude to, TM has barely dipped into the box of marketing tools, in the senses of deliberate publicity and promotion. I sort of get the feeling that they are deliberately making a bit of "slack" to handle the European production. That should be quite a show when cars start landing and getting delivered. Norway first, then ...

lightly | 17 avril 2013

Great Nasdaq spot featuring Tesla and others however it's not new. It's over a year old so I doubt it had anything to do with the stock price jump.

vgrinshpun | 17 avril 2013

Big fish splashing in the pond.

stimeygee | 17 avril 2013

I bought Apple at 7 because I knew they made an amazing product. I sold at 11 because I thought that the world had recognized Apple as far as they were going to, and anyway I didn't want to be greedy. That was literally a million dollar mistake.

Tesla reminds me of Apple in some ways. I know its comparing apples to EVs, but I learned my 'buy and hold' lesson.

herkimer | 17 avril 2013

Interesting link to Longboard Asset Management slideshow analysis of Tesla current situation, and future growth potential:

H/T: Curt Renz on TMC investors forum

Yes, includes comparisons to Apple and why they are relevant to an analysis of Tesla

DanielR | 17 avril 2013

From the "Seekingalpha" website: "Tuesday morning, a bullish note was issued by Morgan Stanley, causing "new investors" to jump in and prompt the stock to come within one percent of its 52 week high."

jk2014 | 17 avril 2013

Oh Brian... Elon said they are now producing cars at production rate so they can make a few loaner vehicles as they've always planned to do. Just six months ago they were producing practically zero with an anxious wait list a mile long. You think they would get people their car first before wasting time with test drive vehicles? Makes sense. Now they have most early reservation holders that have been waiting years satisfied, they go ahead with loaners. Has nothing to do with demand slowing. Demand could increase dramatically and these loaners would still be made. The fact is now they are producing cars at the rate where someone can order today and get the MS three months later. That was Elon's goal. Wish you would actually pay attention or maybe just stick to side tracking forums with your anti-global warming rants, I don't know...

Maybe I'll help you start with this thread... global warming is real. Your response not welcome.

Brian H | 17 avril 2013

They couldn't spare the production because they had no slack, now they do. It means they are now "demand constrained", not "production constrained". I did not say demand had slowed. Try to read all the words, and not to add your own. >:(

jk2014 | 17 avril 2013

If someone has to wait for a car (probably well over 10K right now), they are still production constrained. It is not demand constrained.

The point is Elon said he wanted to get production efficiencies to a level where wait time is less than three months. He is now at that rate of production. Tesla can now take an order and manufacture a custom Model S in 3 months or less. This is mutually exclusive to the reservation queue, no matter how long it is. If there are 25k reservations, they still produce a model S in three months or less (from order to delivery). Does it mean all 25k get cars in three months? No it doesn't. It just means production efficiencies are at a level where they can produce a car consistently in 3 months or less. That's it.

So, the real take away is Tesla is working at desired efficiencies at this point in time. Given they have achieved their desired efficiencies at this point in time, one might conclude this could mean they are at or close to 25% gross margin level as well, not that they are demand constrained.

I can't wait for the Q1 report. Should be very telling as to all of our conjecturing and foot stomping opinions...

Mel. | 17 avril 2013

Jk, I think your mistaken on the idea that Tesla stole the loaner vehicle from Lexus,. M-B, BMW, and Chevrolet were way ahead of Lexus... Where in the world did you hey that crazy idea?

jk2014 | 17 avril 2013

Elon was quoted in the USA Today article saying he stole the high end loaner idea from Lexus.

Mel. | 17 avril 2013

jk, thanks. It a big suprise that Elon doesn't know that so many others are doing this. He might just be very smart. We do like having Toyota help.

Cattledog | 17 avril 2013

Mel - My wife and I are perfect testimonials. EVERY time she took her Lexus in, she got a Lexus loaner. EVERY time. When I took my BMW in, if I wanted a loaner? Come back in 2027 - seriously, I got one exactly one time, EVERY other time getting a loaner would add 3-4 weeks before they could take me. That was lame. So I am much happier hearing they are modelling on Lexus and not BMW.

Mel. | 17 avril 2013

Cattledog, understand. When my BMW was picked up for service, they always left a basic 328 for me, but it was new. I think we hit on it. Different dealerships, different service. We like the idea of dealing with Tesla.

Lexus needs service, every 5000 miles. They want to sell you new windshield wipers, and air filters.

Brian H | 17 avril 2013

Demand constrained = can produce more cars than are currently being ordered per month. Q.E.D.

Brian H | 17 avril 2013

It doesn't matter what the precedents were, if Lexus' example is what inspired Elon, then that's what is relevant to TM.

jk2014 | 17 avril 2013

ooohhhh... Q.E.D to all future Brian Q.E.Ds

Mel. | 17 avril 2013

Brian H, are you saying you haven't actually proven anything, but believe you anyway? Instead of Q.E.D. should it have been WWWWW?

Brian H | 18 avril 2013

They produced more cars than were ordered by customers. That means what I said. Try harder, you'll get it.

eAdopter | 18 avril 2013

A little more toward the topic, there could be many reasons for the TSLA price increase. Today the one I'm focusing on is something I realized a few months ago (when I purchased shares) but it went unnoticed by most people.

Yesterday there was an article regarding how TM is selling more high-end luxury sedans than Lexus, BMW, Audi, and MB. While this is true, the big news still hasn't been noticed (by many) but is sitting right in front of everyone.

The Model S is not directly competing with the other high-end sedans such as the MB S-class, Audi A8, or any others. Here's why:

The Model S is the ONLY premium electric sedan on the market. It's the ONLY one even planned or announced. It has defined a new class and has 100% market share, and no competition (yet). A few smart investors have figurred this out and the stock price should continue to reflect the new understanding as others catch on.

In short time, high-end sedan buyers will realize that most of them drive less than 40 miles per day. The want a premium car with style, performance, luxury, smooth and quiet ride, and a price few neighbors can afford. They also don't take their cars to a race track and won't care if an M5 handles slightly better. They have a second ICE car for long trips.

wonder | 18 avril 2013

Great Company :-)?

JZ13 | 18 avril 2013

Stock jumped again today because Dorsey Wright added it to his recommended buy list this morning. I'm not a fan of his but a LARGE percentage of brokers follow his research. That means a LOT of brokers called their clients today and encouraged them to buy TSLA. The shorts are getting nervous......

jk2014 | 8 mai 2013

Got to take it on the chin like a man, Brian...

Brian H | 8 mai 2013

It was a swing and a miss. My chin is untouched.