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What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

Hoping this thread might pick up steam as TSLA stock goes through some amazing intra-day and open/closing swings due to the large short interest (I'm assuming).

For instance: Yesterday the stock dipped really low at closing so I bought. Today it jumped back up and I sold for a healthy profit.

Why did the stock dip yesterday and then rise so much today? I didn't see any news that would justify it.

pvenkate | 13 novembre 2012

@Docrob: I had reasoned like you about Nat gas prices when I invested heavily in 2005/6. The price slide that started soon after fracking technology began to take effect has still not played out. Fortunately, I had hedged my positions with options, so I didn't get burned too bad. Call me paranoid, but I am worried that just the perception of the US dominating in oil production may drive the OPEC to start a price war. I don't want to see gas prices at the pump go back to $2. Not until Tesla releases its Gen III model.

Sudre_ | 13 novembre 2012

At $2 a gal it is still cheaper for me to charge. At $2 a gal the Performance S will still blow most of the competition off the road and the car will still cost less than that competition.

mal42north | 13 novembre 2012

I believe that most of the new oil production in the states is coming in at a marginal cost of around $80 per barrel. So if gas gets to $2 per gallon, a lot of people will be losing serious amounts of money.

mrspaghetti | 14 novembre 2012

@pvenkate

I don't think gas prices are a very important consideration for most of the people currently on the reservation list for the Model S. If it's true that people are buying it mainly for performance, convenience, quietness, etc., then gas prices are irrelevant.

Volker.Berlin | 14 novembre 2012

tesla.mrspaghetti, *lower* gas prices may be irrelevant. Rising gas prices may broaden the Model S' target audience to the more price sensitive population.

Brian H | 14 novembre 2012

Indeed. Eventually, no one will be able to afford not to buy a Tesla! Ferrari, etc., will be pauperized. Not to mention Toyota, VW, Ford ... Seems its almost already that way in Norway!

Of course, the taxes there on ICEs are gov't revenues, and if they collapse ... Usually the linkage between taxes and targetted spending is more theoretical than real, so it's hard to say if any related direct and indirect societal costs will also decline. It would be very interesting to see hard targets.

Brian H | 16 novembre 2012

Jumped $1 between noon and two today (just before the weekend!) and held. Any idea why?

jat | 16 novembre 2012

@BrianH - consumer reports article maybe?

ak-tually55 | 16 novembre 2012

Slightly positive comments on possible fiscal cliff resolution. TSLA jumped with broad market.

mrspaghetti | 16 novembre 2012

It was the last day to exercise or close out Nov 17 expiry options. Market often does weird things on those days.

oyvind.hestnes | 17 novembre 2012

Fridays gain might come from:
- Motley Fool recommended Tesla in a second of their newsletters
- Accelerating demand for the Model S
- Opening the first Canadian store

Brian H | 18 novembre 2012

>:/
If you mention a new article, please provide the link!!
...
Ok, I see that it's probably buried in one of their paywall sub-pubs. Here's some reasonably current stuff that indicates their mindset:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/11/17/3-areas-tesla-motors-in...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDXWJnQb8Pg&feature=player_embedded

David70 | 18 novembre 2012

The relevant part in the youtube video is at 23:06.

Brian H | 18 novembre 2012

David70;
yes; however he was referring to their newsletters, which I suspect had much more impact.

mbcaffe | 28 novembre 2012

TSLA is up about %5 today. not complaining but why?

tork | 28 novembre 2012

stop trying to tie events to price movements in stock prices. it's just the nature of the market. there doesn't necessarily have to be a reason other than some big fund decided to pick up a bunch of shares or what not.

Brian H | 28 novembre 2012

But it dived 1.5% in the final 3/4 hr.! It's gonna crash tomorrow!

Or maybe not.

;p

KevinR.co.us | 28 novembre 2012

Anybody want to venture a guess what a short squeeze would look like if it happened ?-- how rapid a spike & how high. I'm invested long on this stock but some shares were set aside by me for sale when I get delivery.

GoTeslaChicago | 28 novembre 2012

A sudden bout of short covering could spike the stock 28% to 45% in a 3 to 5 day period. If starting from the current price a possible near term target would be $43 to $47. I would expect to see several days of increasing price gains and volume. The key thing to watch is volume. An insane amount of volume would likely indicate that the short covering spike is over in the near term. A pull back would be expected after that.

Take a look at the chart & volume for the day Tesla fell about 25%. in April? this year. That will give you a feel for what kind of volume an upside spike might have.

However, I'm expecting a likely 3 fold increase in 2-3 years, and 10 fold increase in perhaps 10 years, so a sharp spike now will look like a small blip in the chart several years from now.

PS This is not a prediction for when it will happen.

KevinR.co.us | 28 novembre 2012

GoTeslaChicago- Thanks

GoTeslaChicago | 28 novembre 2012

Actually the sell off I was remembering was Friday the 13th! of January 2012. Volume was 5.5 million. Seemed much higher at the time. Average daily trading volume of Tesla has increased since then. So a short covering generated volume spike might be in the 10 million range. It could even be 20 times the normal daily volume.

In a way I'm expecting series of short covering spikes, each separated by perhaps several months. Each one will be caused by a bunch of shorts all getting out at the same time. Then after a while the sentiment will be that if Tesla was overpriced before it must "really be overpriced now" and they will gradually get in again, only to be chased out again and again as Tesla continues to perform.

GoTeslaChicago | 29 novembre 2012

thin conditions between now and the end of the year plus the way the stock is acting could mean a good short covering rally is imminent! Coupled with the positive fundamental news flow, it will be interesting to see how far it goes.

Quoting Elon: "a tsunami of hurt is coming!"

Brian H | 29 novembre 2012

GAS;
just to be explicit, that's to the short-sellers. Not the shareholders.

;)
:0

GoTeslaChicago | 29 novembre 2012

Thanks Brian.

Ing_Qc | 29 novembre 2012

This is what I found in facebook this afternoon at 14h

Charging North.... Canada, here they come!

Maybe that is the good new

GoTeslaChicago | 29 novembre 2012

If Tesla goes up Friday, maybe it is because of this article:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1036341-buy-tesla-motors-for-at-least-25...

or this one:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1036541-tesla-up-to-11?source=yahoo

The naysayers seem to have gone into hiding lately.

KevinR.co.us | 29 novembre 2012

nice articles...thanks

GoTeslaChicago | 3 décembre 2012

Another good article about Tesla. Takes a different tack than the others and I think nails it.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1041001-no-money-to-be-made-shorting-tes...

Tesla is up again today and volume is increasing. Could be getting closer to some fireworks!

mbcaffe | 3 décembre 2012

maybe investors are beginning to read the forums and seeing that production is ramping up.

Whity Whiteman | 3 décembre 2012

40 million shorted stocks... when will they buy them back?
Short squeeze it and shoot it in the sky

GoTeslaChicago | 3 décembre 2012

+1 mbcaffe

For those of us who trade Tesla stock, info from this list is our secret weapon. Most of the analysts who wait for the quarterly reports don't have a clue!

WW:

Current short interest is 29,632,402

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest

Not 40 million, but still a lot. Perhaps you were thinking/meaning 40% of the float.

David70 | 3 décembre 2012

I think some of the smarter shorts are getting out already.

GoTeslaChicago | 3 décembre 2012

"David70 | DECEMBER 3, 2012
I think some of the smarter shorts are getting out already."

Does that mean that soon there will only be the dumber shorts still in?

Certainly looks like some have been trying to sneak out when no one is looking. However not so many can cover before it starts affecting the price.

KevinR.co.us | 3 décembre 2012

Then there is this article

http://www.avafin.com/articles/1019283.html

Could the Tsunami be building?

GoTeslaChicago | 12 décembre 2012

Two back to back articles in Yahoo Finance:

This Stock is Screaming Buy

http://beta.fool.com/piyusharora/2012/12/12/stock-screaming-buy/18441/?t...

This Stock Could Get DESTROYED by Ford, GM and Volkswagen

http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/streetauthority/thisstockcoul...

Total opposites, and yet the ironic thing is they both have many factual errors like this:
"Tesla is currently making 200 vehicles per week"

or this: "The company plans to install 120KWh batteries by 2014, which translates into at least 400 miles of distance covered on a single charge."

(don't we wish!)

Sudre_ | 12 décembre 2012

By the last quarter of 2014 they may have 120kWh batteries.

stephen.kamichik | 12 décembre 2012

My guess is that the 120kwh battery is for the model X. The wheelbase of the model X is four inches longer than the model S-allowing more room for a physically longer battery pack. There is no 40kwh battery pack for the model X.

Brian H | 13 décembre 2012

Veerrry innerestin';
That would really put the Model X sales' goose pedal to the metal.

pbrulott | 13 décembre 2012

-$2 today??? the TM stock has a very soft support, very volatile still. when I bought I knew what I was going into

GoTeslaChicago | 13 décembre 2012

Tesla down $2, Solar City up $4!

Perhaps investors who want a piece of Elon Musk's success are selling Tesla and buying the cheaper (?) Solar City.

Otherwise, many times there is simply is no rhyme or reason for the daily moves.

tomas.hutters | 13 décembre 2012

Some taking home profits, and some splitting to SCTY? Still, I am not sure if that would be enough to explain what must be the largest one day drop since the "two executives leaving" thing in January.

fluxemag | 13 décembre 2012

Elon looked bad on CNBC today. I think he was just trying not to overshadow the Solar City IPO when the hosts were asking about Tesla, but it came across like he was ducking the questions about production and cash flow. And they also threw in a mention of the cash flow tweet and possible SEC inquiries. And then an off topic rant about the "Fiscal Cliff" (which I actually agreed with).

He also can't be happy that Solar City IPO'd for a much too conservative price, based on the subsequent move in the stock.

Either way, if it really is due to the interview, that's just a buying opportunity.

tomas.hutters | 13 décembre 2012

@fluxemag

First, I wanted to write that I find that hard to believe, but after watching the CNBC thing, I think you may be right.

Here is what I get out of watching it:

  • Elon is less cool than is his habit - maybe due to bad sleep, lack of coffee, Solar City worries, or maybe because he just does not look good in SCTY green. No particular reason to think that this should be Tesla related.
  • He does not want to talk Tesla (cash-flow, production rate etc.) - but he has a very good reason for not wanting to: he is there to talk Solar City, not Tesla. The interviewer is to blame.
  • He may be seen as trying to escape the fiscal cliff/subsidies issue - and, even if he is right, I think it would be better for him to be less arrogant on this topic as it is a real concern for a lot of people, investors included.

All in all, this was one of Elon's less impressive public performances. And some (a lot of) people may have drawn TSLA conclusions from it, even if, in my opinion, it is unfounded.

If this contributed to today's dramatic drop, it just helps to prove how absurdly volatile this stock is. And as you say, yet another buying opportunity (I will wait till it drops quite a bit more).

Brian H | 13 décembre 2012

I 'spect the underlying hot-hot-hot MS delivery rate will drive it back up. That's the relevant fundamental at the moment.

Brian H | 2 janvier 2013

Well, it's pretty clear the Y/E news and buzz is good! The stock jumped >$1.50 on Jan 2, actually opened high and is staying there. One big buy at open, then low avg. volume.

Ohms.Law | 24 janvier 2013

Wow, the stock has been on a wild ride today. Up by a $1.70 just before noon and on a downward slide ever since, although still positive. Anyone wish to venture a guess why?

Brian H | 24 janvier 2013

Big trade started the rise, big trade started the slide. Still up 50¢.

?? Rumors??

kenliles | 24 janvier 2013

large number of shorts were stopped at $36; many of those covered, squeezing price up on further long buying; shorts are still coming in though - maybe that's what the big trade was just past noon.

jk2014 | 24 janvier 2013

Electric car sales up 130%. If everyone has reported numbers publicly except Tesla, could we now know actual Q4 numbers? Could this help explain the action today?

Carl Barlev | 24 janvier 2013

jk2014,

I believe that 130% figure is a forecast for 2013... in which case no can do for Q4 calculation by elimination.

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