1. The size of the battery?
3. under promise over deliver quote
4. 5000 cars made in 2012
Larger battery will likely get you the car sooner, but you should probably expect to get it by the end of March 2013.
5,000 cars in 2012, but that includes over 1,000 Signatures.
I think if you have a low number, then the larger battery will likely get you the car sooner, but by the time they start producing for the larger numbers, you'll be mixed in with production for all the batteries. When production starts, it will be focused on making 100% models 85kWh batteries. After a few months, the throughput will need to be shared with the 60kWh model rampup, ultimately saturating at 50% for 85kWh models and 50% for 60kWh models (possibly). A few months after that, the 40kWh models get thrown into the mix, possible saturating at 33% of the throughput dedicated to each?
My number is P#4932. At the time I got that number, the international order profile (according to michiganmodels) looked like this:
S 448 (August 31, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 4,932 (September 5, 2011)
S 86 (August 19, 2011)
P 183 (August 15, 2011)
S 72 (August 17, 2011)
P 439 (August 22, 2011)
S13 (May 21, 2011)
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)
Total: 6,467 - September 5, 2011
S = Signature Series (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)
I'm hoping with the order dropout rate, my order number will fall under within the first 5000 cars produced; however, even though I'm ordering an 85kWh model, I don't expect to get it until sometime in December since my number is relatively high (P#4932).
WITH YOUR NUMBER P#6997( MY #) WHEN DO WE THINK WE WILL GET OUR CAR? I am going with the 85kwh
skystream3.7@gm... | FEBRUARY 14, 2012
1. The size of the battery?
3. under promise over deliver quote
4. 5000 cars made in 2012
@skystream: I've taken a crack at a shipment model, based on snippets and guesses. With your number, I don't believe the battery size will make a difference; by the time your number comes up, Tesla should have been able to clear the backlog of low-number reservation holders who wanted the 40kWh or 60kWh battery.
Assuming Tesla delivers 5,000 in 2012, and that it will have ramped up the factory to the 20,000/year pace by the start of 2013 (=1,650/day), then your number should come up in early- to mid-April.
Why? (all numbers approximate)
In 2012, Tesla makes 50 Founders series, 1,000 US Sig, 100 Canadian Sig, and 3,850 US GPs.
In January, Tesla makes 200 EU/Swiss Sigs, 100 Canadian GPs, and 1,300 US GPs, bring us up to US P#5,150.
In February, Tesla makes 200 EU GPs, 100 Canadian GPs, and 1,300 US GPs, bringing us up to US P#6,450.
In March, Tesla makes 250 EU GPs, 50 Canadian GPs, and 1,300 US GPs, bringing us up to US P#7,750.
In April, Tesla makes 250 EU GPs and 1,350 US GPs, bringing us up to US P#8,100.
This math doesn't account for drop rates, which could slide you in earlier, but I'd be thinking April and be pleasantly surprised.
Sig 592, so I hope before mid August... coincidentally before my birthday =)
European #P3 (shifted from #P1 originally). I hope for a delivery just still in 2012, but more realistically in Q1 2013.
FYI, this topic has had a lot of discussion including a "delivery date poll" at:
and follow-up at:
Robert.Boston...It is 200 Canadian signatures model S cars.
My reservation number, #5747, is the reason why I want to upgrade to signature if I can get off the wait list and into the sig list. I really want to own this car this year.
"20,000/year pace by the start of 2013 (=1,650/day)"
20,000/365 = 55 cars per day, not 1,650
Conversely 1,650 X 365 = 602.250 cars a year, That would make Tesla one of the best selling brands in the world. We can dream !
Somewhere I'd heard a suggestion that 2012 could see as many as 7,000 cars produced in total. I assume it will depend on how the late-year ramping up goes.
How does Tesla know what battery size you want? Have they started requesting that information? Or will they ask all reservation holders to submit their specs when final details come out (presumably this month)?
20,000/365 = 55 cars per day, not 1,650
My words were wrong, my numbers are right -- it's 1,650 cars/month, which is what's shown in my calculations above. Yes, I rounded down.
@bfadewole -- I've read that a few months before the car is scheduled to be finished the reservation holder will be contacted for final options. Likely this will revolve around sharing a configuration through the design studio then confirmation emails and contracts for payment.
Once all that is done, they make the car.
Based on 55 cars a day and my P#1,837 then I think I can expect it maybe in October?
the biggest unaswered question is how many 300 mile cars Telsa will make before moving to 230 and then to 160. In theory, someone ordering a car today that wants the 300 miles pack could get their car before someone that ordered one 2 years ago in they are getting the 160. Alot depends on drops out. It would be nice if Tesla gave better direction - but for now we wait....
FWIW, I was consistently told my expectation that my car would arrive in August (Sig 703) was reasonable at the X event.
@BYT: My customer rep thought Oct/Nov for me (P1635).
Should we be basing calculations off of 365 days in the year? Do they really run the plant 24/7?
The numbers we're given are based on yearly amounts, so however you divide it (7d a week or 4d a week) it comes out the same average over the year.
@Robert, I am REALLY hoping for sooner... :)
Model S Signature #13
So being in the UK, I can 'expect' it in Q1 next year?
The 20,000 number is a single shift full time. So the daily average over a year is 55 cars/day. The average daily production/work day should be around 80 cars. 5 days/week, 50 weeks. 2 weeks scheduled downtime.
Elon has been touting the fact that they will be able to double production relatively cheaply by adding an additional shift on the same line.
If they can get their line to run smoothly, with high quality, then yes, they might step it up to 24/7/365 and pay the small penalty of overtime and a larger labor workforce. That's a hard place to get to however, but TM is hiring!
My understanding is that for this first year, out of all current reservation holders at the time they begin taking actual orders, they will first deliver all Sigs, then deliver all non-Sig Perfs, then all 85kwh, then 60kwh, and then 40kwh. Basically they are going to delvier them in price order (which is probably margin order as well).
I wonder if within a battery class, they give precedence to higher margin cars (more options ordered).
My point is, if what I am saying is true, then it will be difficult to predict when specific people will get their cars without knowing the the amount of each battery class that people intend to buy.
"My understanding is that for this first year, out of all current reservation holders at the time they begin taking actual orders, they will first deliver all Sigs, then deliver all non-Sig Perfs, then all 85kwh, then 60kwh, and then 40kwh." @olanmills
I don't think that's right; it's certainly not been stated that absolutely by Tesla. Founders, then all Sigs first, check. Then they'll start with the 85kWh packs, add in 60kWh packs to the mix a few months later, and then add in the 40kWh packs by the end of the year. My understanding is that this sequence has more to do with ramping up battery production sequentially, and not a grab for quick margin.
To the best of my knowledge, Tesla has never said anything about the Performance option changing a reservation's priority.
I suspect that the effect of the Peformance option on reservation order will depend largely on the state of the powertrain manufacturing lines (since the Performance will require a variant powertrain), and perhaps also on the availability of the carbon fiber pieces. They may be produced earlier, they may be produced later, depending on relative readiness of different parts.
I have been told the same
@Brant, I sure hope that's true, but it sounds too good to be true. That would give my relatively high production number a huge boost in priority.
Talked with tesla yesterday and they say I should see my car by December of 2012.I will believe it when I see
Yeah, I wouldn't hold my breath for P6997 being delivered by December 2012. If it is, that would be fantastic because it would mean that I would get mine a month or so before hand! ;-)
Yes, I've thought all along that the production numbers for 2012 were likely to be heavily under-promised, in order to leave slack for the unexpected, and to permit "tuning".
PLUS -- it's an "easy" way to make a lot of folks very happy by producing 7,000-8,000+ (my prediction). 1,000 Sigs + 7,000 Ps would about match the Dec 2012 promise to you.
Tesla's statement to skystream is intriguing. It could mean several things:
Tesla expects to start deliveries sooner than July 31, and so they can exceed 5,000 cars in 2012.
Tesla expects to ramp up production faster than previously anticipated, and so they can exceed 5,000 cars in 2012.
The reservation drop rate has been startlingly high.
Of course, the real answer could be some combination of the above.
If the target delivery date really is 2012 for P6997, then your choice of battery may have a big impact on the actual delivery date.
yes the Battery was the big thing. He also said that they will manufacturer all three cars in 1000 lots after the first 3000 cars are made. This was to keep all people happy.
Last year official Tesla sources were estimating between 5,500 and 6,000 in 2012. Lately official Tesla sources have been saying 5,000. As much as I would love to believe it, I share the original poster's skepticism and find it rather unlikely that an unnamed Tesla source would now be providing a credible estimate of over 8,000 (7,000 prod + 1,000 US sigs + 200 Canadian sigs). That's a 60% increase over the current official estimate.
These current official estimates of 5,000 come at a time when Elon has mentioned that so far there has been some difficulty in satisfying all conditions in the crash testing. In other words, crash testing hasn't been a "slam dunk" so it’s entirely possible that the original slack built into the schedule is indeed being used to achieve perfect across-the-board crash test results.
Nevertheless, I’m still hoping that Tesla will over-deliver by achieving the original estimates of 5,500 to 6,000, but 8,000 seems too much of a stretch.
The rep I spoke to after placing my reservation (P# 6275) said that any date at this point would be complete speculation, but that February 2013 is a reasonable expectation. He said that estimations on deliveries would become more and more accurate as the production time for the customer's vehicle gets closer (ie come this fall, they would be more sure of an answer than when I reserved in December, and then in early winter, it should be a pretty good estimate).
I don't know if I'd have to contact my rep again to get estimate updates, but I would assume so. I don't plan on doing that. Instead I plan on just being patient and watching these forums to see what numbers are being called. We'll probably get a pretty good idea of the rate of production when we get reports here and on TMC of people signing purchase contracts, having their options finalized for their vehicles, and actually taking delivery. Plus I assume they'd contact me months before I take delivery in order to find out what options I desire on my vehicle. They should have a pretty good estimate of delivery at that point.
February 2013 for P6275 sounds reasonable; as I noted above, I thought March 2013 for P6997 was about right.
The "3,000 then batches of 1,000" has my head spinning. We had generally been assuming that buying a bigger battery meant earlier delivery. That may not be true under this production plan:
The first 3,000 are definitely 85kWh cars, as the run includes the Signatures (about 1,250, counting Canada and Friends&Family, leaving about 1,750 GP cars). Suppose you're P2500 and want an 85kWh pack; depending on what other general reservation holders want, you may not get one of the first 3,000 run. If the next 1,000 produced are 60kWh packs, you'll need to wait until next time Tesla does an 85kWh run. If you had opted for the 60kWh, however, you might get a car out of that second batch (i.e., the first batch of 1,000).
Or to see it a different way, suppose that of all the North American reservations, only 1,000 people want 40kWh packs. When the 1,000 40kWh vehicles come off the line, all pending 40kWh orders will ship, leapfrogging lower-numbered reservations for higher kWh cars.
I'm suddenly very glad the my number is P1635, as I think that guarantees me one of the first 3,000 (taking into account ~1,250 Sigs and F&F vehicles).
My guess is you've got it backwards. The larger batteries will, in the first few thousand, raise your priority. On the other hand, for example, if the 3000-4000 range was almost all 85kWh, they wouldn't toss in a few hundred smaller batteries from further back on the list to ensure a good mix.
As I am a UK based SIG buyer, winder when I get it (right hand drive).
Will it be part of the 1000 SIG's this year, but then right hand drive??
I played with the numbers a bit, and it looks like this to me:
The 2013 rate of 20K requires >16000/mo.
Assuming they can actually ramp up to about that by Oct 2012, starting with ~1,000 in July and then escalating, the total could be >8,000 for 2012. That would then make skystream's hopes come true.
Backing down to April for first production, instead of July, then starting at 500/mo, and increasing the rate by just 100/mo thru September, then 200/mo for the last 3 months, gets you to 8,700 total.
But since no one has been contacted so far (?) to finalize options '3 mo. in advance of production', I guess June is now the first month we can now expect actual customer cars to begin assembly. ;(
vouteb, the 1000 SIGs this year are US only. Deliveries to Canada will start around the same time, with 300 SIGs IIRC. Other markets will not be served before 2013 (late 2012 the earliest), each market starting with a limited number of SIGs (it is still unclear -- if not undetermined -- if there is a SIG queue for each European country, or one shared among entire Europe, and how many units that queue(s) hold(s)).
the Canadian sigs won't start until they have achieved homologation for the Canadian market and the last word we have heard is that will be approx. 3 months following start of US production.
and there will be only 200 sigs for Canada ...
::grumble grumble missing edit support grumble::
Vielen Dank, makes sense
Morgan Stanley apparently doesn't believe Tesla's delivery volume estimates for 2012.
Morgan Stanley Moderately Tweaks Tesla Motors Earnings Model
In a research report published earlier today, Morgan Stanley has adopted virtually all of Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ: TSLA) 2012 guidance, except for the Model S delivery volume, where Morgan Stanley remains at 2,000 units.
I'm assuming PT means price target. What happens to the 44 PT if they have underestimated Tesla's first year production?
That would be bad news. Only 2,000 this year throws everyone 2-3 months back. We waited this long, what's another 3 months.... Those guys at Morgan aren't idiots, they changed the number for a reason. In any event, it certainly throws any of the optimistic predictiosn above (8,000 this year) into great doubt.
Talked to my rep yesterday. He was pretty confident that 4000 would be delivered this year (by Dec 31st). Forgot to clarify though if that was with or without Sigs.