I have a late 2016 (AP HW2) S90D and just listened to the Elon - Lex Fridman interview on the MIT AP Driver Awareness study. A couple of things that I got from the interview were:
There are about 400,000 cars with FSD hardware.
The new Tesla CPU for FSD has very recently been added to the cars.
Elon is driving the debug version of the firmware that has most if not all of the FSD functionality.
There is a real chance Tesla will release the FSD functionality this year even if it still requires driver participation.
So what I am wondering is how long it will take for Tesla to upgrade the all CPUs. Does anyone know how many FSD cars out there purchased FSD? Lets say it is half. So 200,000 cars that need a FSD upgrade. Lets say arbitrarily that it will cost Tesla $500 to upgrade a car. (cost of hardware and installation). Unless my math is wrong that would be 100 million dollars. Do we see that as a problem? Tesla has already shown that it prioritizes the current hardware set over the older when it comes to delivering firmware updates. How long before Tesla delivers the FSD to legacy hardware cars after it delivers it to the latest and greatest?
The one factor that could help is how much Tesla has had to modify their earnings because they could not use a portion, possibly none of the FSD sales because they have not delivered any functionality yet.
Anyone have any idea how much that would be? Using the above estimate of 200,000 FSD sales at $2,000/sale that would be 800 million. And how does not being able to recognize revenue effect cash flow?
Any ideas out there?