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Less than 1% Battery Degradation at 38,600+ miles

Less than 1% Battery Degradation at 38,600+ miles

My Current Stats:
38,614 miles
16.5 months of ownership
~ 50% charging done at Superchargers (mostly from ~ 10% to 60% SOC)
~ 50% charging done at Home (10A, 120V - mostly from ~ 60% to 80% SOC)
Last full supercharge to 307 miles of 310 (though I left before it stopped due to running late for a meeting)
Still have not gotten the over-the-air update with 5% increase of range.

Incredible battery so far !!!

Cheers

(tagging onto an old thread for the heck of it)
(sorry for that and for not keeping up with the old thread)
________________________________________________________________________________________________

New contest - started 11/16/18 - win a Tesla Cap if you are closest guess to when the first non-employee forum member takes delivery of a normal range battery Model 3. Same rules as last time. If you participated in the first contest, you get two entries into this contest. Yarik44 was the winner of the first contest and is the proud owner of a new hat - see his photo here: imgur.com/a/3mtAY

Current Entries (22 players so far):

February
mntlvr23 - 02/14/19 (pitifully trying to resurrect the glory of this old thread)
dsvick - 02/17/19 (unfortunately just missed catching up with ds during my baseball tour)
Ashi_plm - 02/28/19 (I did not get around to entering this until it had already expired)

March
Tesla2018 - 03/04/19 (2018 should be disqualified for guessing 2019)
RP3 - 03/15/18 (cluelessly and endlessly waiting in the (R)ear wheel drive (P)erformance Model (3) waiting room)
TM34DWife - 03/15/19 (The wife with the 34D's had many many days to choose from and got disqualified for copying RP3's date)

April
TabascoGuy - 04/01/19 (what is hotter than a Model 3 .... it's the TabascoGuy)
bj - 04/08/19 (thanks for resurrecting the thread)
johnmann - 04/16/19 (I missed the "dan" incident, and johnmann's inspiring post - but he still gets a second pick based on playing in the first round)
RP3 - 04/26/19 (RG3's little brother)

June
nwfan - 06/14/19 (a great year to be a Northwestern fan, first place in division, ranked … it is all good until they get spanked by Michigan in the conference championship)

July
M3forMe - 07/01/19 (soon to change to MYforMe)
jlauriemd - 07/30/19 (good friends with h.lauriemd - dr.house)

August
CoastalCruiser - 08/14/19 - (finally succumbed to my pressure and put his guess in the ring)
Rutrow S - 08/28/18 (if he were actually the hacker, I would imagine that he would have found a way to win the first hat)

October
bj - 10/10/19 (if correct, will win a hat AND a mint)
dsvick - 10/14/19 (perhaps CLE will be playing at this late date - now that they have gotten rid of Chief Wahoo)

December
vmulla - 12/10/19 (gave me one of my first looks and hands on experiences with the Model 3 - thank you man)
spuzzz123 - 12/31/19 (because calling him spazz is now considered politically incorrect, even on a drunken new years eve)
doctorsmile - 12/31/19 (not smiling after being the first disqualification for repeating spazzz123's guess)

January 2020
CoastalCruiser - 01/15/20 (ye of little faith)

2023???
Rutrow S - 06/29/23 (not sure that he deserves two votes, with a slightly different screenname - but guessing 2023 sealed his special dispensation)

CoastalCruiser - just watching, avoiding fires, and avoiding submitting entries
--------

This was once the unofficial countdown for when the first (non-employee) reserver on this forum just might take delivery of their Tesla Model 3.

There was a contest involved - as forum members posted their predictions as to what date they thought the first (non-employee) forum member will take delivery of a Model 3. The rules were stored in mntlvr23's head, and changed often based on alcohol intake.THE CONTEST IS NOW OVER with @hsadler taking delivery on 12/22/17 and yarik44 winning the hat. The secondary contest for a second hat was not won, and no second hat was awarded. The thread was surprisingly troll-free, thank g*d, jinx. There were over 140 entries, including random bonus entries awarded at the whim of the mint lover. All entries (and the entrants' monikers) will be retained below until the endtimes:

OCT 2016
XX - NL4M - 10/28/16 (for a home-hitting latagram)

MAY 2017
XX - damieng ≡ 05/04/17 (he is trying to get all of our hopes up for a super early production start - "Damie? Why do you do this to me Damie?", quoth Linda Blair to the exorcist)

JUNE
XX - *flwrman* - 06/01/17 (flowerman is taking one for the team - once he gets his M3, his car will no longer emit the carbon dioxide that used to make his flowers and flower shop thrive)
XX - *jdieroff* - 06/28/17 (+1 for the rare usage of "just dying, rolling on floor farting" - and for choosing Elon's birthday)

JULY
XX - s2rogerjackson ≡ 07/01/17 - (a BOLD prediction! Delivered on the very first day of Q3 and the anniversary of Tesla's founding, I am thinking that Roger just may actually be Elon. Let's all hope that Roger wins this damn cap - and then everyone wins)
XX - *accentcreate* - 07/01/17 - (copied action jackson's pick "accentuating" his/her lack of "creativity", so is disqualified from the possibility of winning a hat)
XX - *chhartwig* - 07/04/17 - (chhartwig and the angry inch celebrate Independence from gasoline Day)
XX - *krissu* - 07/04/17 - (great guess, great logic, but just a bit too late and is disqualified)
XX - cbaum133 ≡ 07/06/17 (on 07/06, c'baum's birthday present is going to be d'baum)
XX *kaffine* - 07/07/17 (double bonus - Nikola would be proud)
XX **Maximillian** - 07/10/17 Reveal Date - for record only ( nikola's birthday)
XX The Artist formerly known as Red Sage ca us ≡ 07/14/17 (+42, 07/14/17 is the Ultimate Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and when will the first non-employee forum member take delivery of their Model 3)
XX *cooksfarm* - 07/17/17 (breaks the drought of two weeks without a new viable entry)
XX *kaffine* - 07/18/17 (double bonus - as he has nothing better to do than reread this thread for Easter eggs)
XX *drdirt55* - 07/21/17 (Ashlee's middle-aged proctologist uncle?)
XX *Limply PDX" - 07/27/17 (simply because he asked)
XX 07/28/17 (date has been closed off to new or bonus entries, due to the announced delivery of the first 30 Model 3's)
XX mdd ≡ 07/30/17 (strategically edged out SamO and now Dr D's entry owns one-third of Q3 ... for the moment / oops, the moment is gone)
XX SamO ≡ 07/31/17 (SamOsam - the cross-country (wo)man - Is the "O" for "Overly Optimistic"? - or is the "0" for the number of miles of charge left rolling into the Gallup Supercharger)

AUGUST
XX - *starke49* - 08/01/17 (Iron Man Starke has no need of the largest battery, as he will have a custom slot in his M3 for his Arc Reactor)
XX - *kaffine* - 08/04/17 (400th reply bonus winner)
XX - *Linolenic* - 08/07/17 (Nick Li is hiding "elon" backwards in his forum name)
XX - *burdogg* - 08/08/17 (noun - dog trained to retrieve pigeons and other birds)
XX - *pchampoux* - 08/10/17 (a French shampoo fortified with urine)
XX - topher ≡ 08/11/17 (thank you kindly for playing)
XX - m tlvr 3 ≡ 08/12/17 (loves spending quality time in the mountains with Michael Jordan - ht to noleaf4me)
XX - *noleaf4me* - 08/13/17 (pity bonus entry - I think he just wanted to see his name next to mine ;)
XX *dsvick* - 08/14/17 (suck up bonus entry)
XX TASANB ≡ 08/15/17 (anagram for B Satan)
XX *elizabets07* - 08/15/17 (Satan beat her to that date)
XX - Kchester32 ≡ 08/16/17 (is getting his M3 loaded to the hilt)
XX *bj* - 08/17/17 (bonus entry sent to the down under)
XX - *Iceniner* - 08/18/17 (shooting to become an "ICE-eighty-sixer)
XX - *eeb9* - 08/19/17 ( much better than malignant Eosinophilic esophagitis)
XX - gavin.faulkner ≡ 08/21/17 ("As I lay dying" ..... to get my new Model 3)
XX - karaub ≡ 08/22/17 (kara, you be ..... very lucky if you get yours by your guess of 11/12)
XX - *iSpanglish* - 08/23/17 (watch out Duolingo - there is a new iphone app about to disrupt)
XX - *Wildcardtaylortelsa* - 08/24/17 (the talented Miss Vikki)
XX - viper17d ≡ 08/25/17 (giving a shout out to the final production year of that iconic american sportscar)
XX - *jcd82* - 08/26/17 (my apologies for forgetting to give you a moniker)
XX - JeffreyR ≡ 08/28/17 (HOF'er providng the JeffreyAdvantage by under-promising and over-delivering his bookmarklets in between his bumping and grinning.)
XX - *NL4M* - 08/28/17 (fleeting three hours prematurely given the XX) Happy Birthday to Rutrow
XX - LA-Fohlen* - 08/30/17 (hails from Laughlin, NV)
XX - Octagondd ≡ 08/31/17 (his/her name shamelessly advertises her large and uniquely shaped girl parts? or his ripped MMA pects?)

SEPTEMBER
XX - dsvick ≡ 09/01/17 (ds stands for "da sheriff")
XX - 4fishtankz ≡ 09/02/17 (cuz the 4 tankz will capture the inertial energy of the water sloshing around, particularly at each stop, and will keep her battery fully charged)
XX - *volk71* - 09/02/17 (anniversary of the atm, blah, blah, blah - but did not read the rules and wasted his guess on copying 4tankz)
XX - rbortins ≡ 09/03/17 (09/03 is to the day, the 50th anniversary of Sweden switching to driving on the right hand side of the road - in preparation to eventually get earlier deliveries of the M3 - amazing vision)
XX - melinda.v ≡ 09/04/17 (works at an architectural design studio by day - dreams of the Tesla design studio by night)
XX - *JoeFee* - 09/04/17 (Joe Feegot to read the rules and is disqualified)
XX - EVolution - 09/05/17 (darwin has nothing on him or on the new evolution of car making)
XX - *WormtownKris* - 09/06/17 (when the Model 3 is delivered, Kris will Be Hoppy to drive between the Brewery and the Festival)
XX - *mntlvr23* - 09/07/17 (shameless, self-assigned bonus pick)
XX - KP in NPT ≡ 09/08/17 (KP was forced to change name when forum discovered RI was too short to have a mile post 1156)
XX - penanko ≡ 09/09/17 (I think NEIN - on the prediction of Nine/Nine)
XX - *NL4M* - 09/10/17 (bonus entry traded for his promise to stop begging)
XX - Frank99 ≡ 09/11/17 (cousin of Johnny99 - Springsteen's laid off auto plant worker turned murderer)
XX - dave3774 ≡ 09/12/17 (has the final four digits of my old phone number)
XX- b8schris ≡ 09/13/17 (Chris Bates chooses my fav Fiona Apple's B-Day. btw, Fiona does not drive ICE - partially because she doesn't drive)
XX - *bj* - 09/14/17 (Troll bonus entry - bj has a whopping 3 entries)
XX - andy.connor.e ≡ 09/15/17 (upstanding distant cousin of the troubled Sara Connor - crap, I broke my own rule and disqualified myself by mentioning her name)
XX - *bj* - 09/16/17 (anagram bonus)
XX - *jcd82* - 09/17/17
XX - kaffine ≡ 09/18/17 (no need for caffeine now that he will have autopilot)
XX - grantandjessica0813 - 09/19/17 (interesting choice since 08/13 had not yet been taken)
XX - *burdogg* - 09/20/17 (verb - search out or pursue trolls with dogged determination)
XX - akgolf ≡ 09/21/17 (from one of the three states without a supercharger - and the only state where it isn't even planned)
XX - *Iwantmy3* - 09/22/17 (cue up Sting and Dire Straits singing ftm3's version of "I Want My Model 3" https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/had-little-time-my-hands)
XX - Dwhitehead ≡ 09/23/17 (the anniversary of monument to Tesla unveiled at Wardencliff)
XX - joemwright90 ≡ 09/25/17 (although a pretty good guess, it is much more likely that joemwrong) looks like he has since changed his name to "ddrmadness"
XX - *SamO* - 09/26/17 (finds the easter egg for the bonus entry on Easter day)
XX - *mntlvr23* - 09/27/17 (suggested by SamO, but mostly self-awarded to spite nl4m)
XX - Twiglett ≡ 09/28/17 (perhaps a Nilsson fan - "Thursday (Here's Why I Did Not Go To Work Today"))
XX - PhillyGal ≡ 09/29/17 (Electric will get the first M3, because ... ladies first .... she has promised to keep her posts strictly PG, at least on this forum))
XX - Simply Red – 09/30/17 (not RedSage, not ReD eXiLe, not RedShift, just, simply, red)

OCTOBER
XX - dd.micsol – 10/01/17 (if he wins the cap, he will bury it in the desert for someone to find)
XX - grizmatt – 10/01/17 (back-up in case dd is disqualified)
XX - *edighoffer* - 10/03/17 (on this date in 1995, OJ was acquitted - then on this date in 2008, OJ was convicted - could OJ receive his M3 on this date in 2017 ?)
XX - keithndeborah - 10/05/17 (starting Nov 12th, keith n deborah b figthing no mo over whose turn it is)
XX - Jzambrano1017 - 10/05/17 (due to the Z-name, J was always called last in school roll call - and is essentially last in this contest for duplicating KnD's guess)
XX - Nexxus - 10/06/17 (nexxus / part of speech: noun / pronounced as: nek-səs / definition: the center or focus / sample usage: Tesla is the emerging nexxus of the automobile industry)
XX - *kaffine* - 10/08/17 (bonus entry)
XX - *davidtstewart* - 10/08/17 (the "t" stands for "too late" for that particular guess)
XX - helmut - 10/09/17 (dog from hell)
XX - mystercoco - 10/10/17 (aka: monsieurcacao. Bonne chance)
XX - M3forMe - 10/11/17 (After learning that Ford had the rights to "Model E", what did Elon say? "We'll swap M≡ for ME".)
XX - burdogg - 10/12/17 (donated from mntlvr23)
XX - dyefrog - 10/13/17 (frogs don't hear the EV's coming)
XX - Tarla's Driver - 10/14/17 (the day that Tarla's Driver swaps two letters and becomes Tesla Driver)
XX - *kornchik_31* - 10/15/17 (once she gets her M3, no one is going to be able to keep that freak on a leash)
XX - robertholzer - 10/16/17 (the ultimate birthday present)
XX - noleaf4me - 10/17/17 (next winter - "me a felon" is gladly leafing the leaf behind) ht to dsvick - HFB to KP1156
XX - *chris.pribe* - 10/18/17 (I got nothing)
XX - jdanielp_uk - 10/21/17 (is gonna cost me extra postage)
XX - bj - 10/23/17 (first reserver on these boards - and deserves a tesla cap)
XX - *AZ Fan• - 10/24/17 (Given the choice between T and A, there is no question)
XX - EinSV - 10/25/17 Since donated to burdogg (Eric/Edward/Elizabeth in Silicon/Simi/Sonoma Valley - am I close?)
XX *elephant in a bottle - 10/25/17 (blatant net piehole) ht - MTTPA
XX - *SamO* - 10/26/17 (anagram bonus)
XX - abtesla - 10/27/17 (related to a-b-normal in Young Frankenstein)
XX - *KP in NPT* - 10/28/17 (bonus to the 1300th reply)
XX - *SamO* - 10/29/17 (unrequested surprise bonus for throwing a hella good 07/28 party)
XX - *burdogg* - 10/30/17 (although less than 6% of the forum members thanked him, it would be very disingenuous to say that only 6% of the forum members appreciated what he did)
XX - *Eh* - 10/31/17 (anagram bonus)
XX - *Teslafarmer* - 10/32/17 (just in case Elon uses an alternate calendar in order to meet October's production quota)

NOVEMBER
XX - sbeggs - 11/01/17 (sbeggs wants to know ... How did you pick your estimate, and what does it say about you?) !!! NO LONGER THE PROJECTED WINNER !!!
XX - *TheChad* - 11/04/17 (Mr. One Thousand)
XX - *alan.willson2* - 11/06/17 (the distinguished Electrical Engineering Emeritus Professor?)
XX - rutirkhan - 11/09/17 (no I am not Tir Khan)
XX - *burdogg* - 11/10/17 (has only noticed 4% degradation in his smart phone battery over the last year, but when the "percentage of battery remaining" no longer displayed at the upper right-hand corner of the phone, he did not claim that the battery was shot. Instead he just went to settings and turned the display back on)
XX - RP3 - 11/11/17 (RP3 is what EaglesPDX teasingly calls the third design iteration of the "Renault Pulse" on the Renault forums)
XX - *davidkhook* - 11/11/17 (hooked on the Model 3, but disqualified from the contest)
XX - jon - 11/14/17 (j*sus of nazareth?)
XX - *1089* - 11/19/17 (the contest was shut down for a few days after 1089's post - in an abundance of caution - as "10-89" is the police code for bomb threat. No bombs were found, other thT an the countless harmless poop bombs scattered throughout other M3 forum threads - though those are typically quickly disarmed by skilled Tesla owners)
XX - Randkthorn - 11/20/17 (should probably capitalize the "K", you are equal partners afterall)
XX - robsurvey16 - 11/21/17 (... cannot resist a survey)
XX - *IwantmyM3* - 11/28/17 (anagram bonus)
XX - *Rutrow* - 11/29/17 (has secret crush on daughter Judy - on George's daughter, not his own, he is not like the POTUS)

DECEMBER
XX - CoastalCruiser – 12/01/17 (aka: tesla - an award winning author and poet cruising the left coast in search of the best burger and open super chargers) *ht to Rutrow
XX - Jcastillo18 - 12/01/17 (not paying attention to the rules or the previous guesses - tesla already owns this slot)
XX - *ReDwHaTeVeR* - 12/03/17 (anagram bonus)
XX - *hsagues* - 12/07/17 (really? Pearl Harbor Day?)
XX - *TheChad* - 12/11/17 (not Chad Dukes, and probably not Chad Everett)
XX - NL4M - 12/11/17 (wastes the very last bonus pick to be given out by foolishly choosing an ineligible date)
XX - *Ehninger1212* - 12/12/17 (though he stubbornly refused to play each day as he visited the thread - one day he slipped up and unwittingly entered a guess)
XX - *topher* - 12/14/17 (bonus)
XX - metalkamikazee - 12/15/17 (can only be interpreted as "Model E talk, am I krazy?)
XX - *burdogg* - 12/16/17 (The 2,000th post bonus)

WINNER - Yarik4X4 - 12/20/17 (advertising favorite burger on the In-N-Out secret menu)

SO SO CLOSE - *lar_lef* - 12/23/17 (reminds me of lars and leif and other things scandinavian - and also reminds me of something I saw on a vacation to Iceland last summer. While visit a mom and pop museum that mostly revolved around the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, I saw an Icelandic historical timeline on the wall that included: "1001 - Leif Erikson Discovers America" and "1492 - Christopher Columbus Visits America")

SO SO CLOSE - Goodman.Larry - 12/26/17 (to clarify his first estimate of "late-October", his obvious response was 12/26, which is quite late in Oct)

Ross - 12/31/17 (unfairly time-traveled in the spaceship with Toto to determine the correct answer)

JANUARY 2018
*johnmann* - 01/01/2018 (aimee mann's husband get bonus pick)
matt - 01/12/18 ("01/12/18 is the date when first "normal" person gets vehicle" - lol, I am not sure how the contest can verify the "normal" part of that)
w8ng4m3 - 01/19/18 (you and a million or so others of us)
*J ALAN BUKIT TINGGI* - 01/31/18 (for the win)

FEBRUARY 2018
*bricha55* - 02/01/18 - (bumping bonus)
*WormtownKris* - all of February except for the 4th, 7th, 9th and the 14th
*Rocky H* - 02/04/18 (he's not weird, like us)
*CC* - 02/07/18 (anagram bonus) RESCINDED
*burdogg* - 02/09/17 (bonus) CEDED TO ROSS DUE TO NEGLIGENCE IN COURT
*MRS CC*- 02/14/18 (entries given for benefits) RESCINDED

MARCH 2018
*CC* - 03/02/18 (dr cc seuss's bday) RESCINDED
*KP* - even days
*SamO* - odd days

JUNE 2018
*NoHatForMe* - all of June (for showing great restraint)

OCTOBER 2018
*NL4M* - 10/28/18 - since donated to burdogg (brute force bonus)

JULY 2021
XX - *EaglesPDX* - 07/03/21 (if correct, will have a T3 hat mailed to him, but only if a "T3" hat is offered on the Tesla website)

NO DATE

XX - *redacted* - had the final opportunity to enter, but chose not to - (I only mention this because I went to bed well after midnight EDT on 05/31, hoping there would be a last minute entry, and that the timestamp would likely close the contest at midnight PDT. When I woke up the next morning, I was happy to see that one more post made it through with the May 31st stamp - but alas, it was *redacted*, without a guess, just spewing the usual admonishment at me. That post appears to have been since flagged away by owners. A missed opportunity for sure - as they say: "you gotta play to win"). Other members posting on this thread without providing a guess include: up north, siddhu, Techsla, bmwgs, pavel, fitz, and Badbot. We will see if any of these folks have a problem with their names being included here. If so, let me know and I will redact yours too. The dude who includes dozens of members names in his threads that are repeated dozens of times has a problem with this?

HOW IS/(ARE) THE WINNER(S) DETERMINED? -

1) For guesses entered before 02/22 - one hat will be awarded to the closest "pre-02/22" guess to the correct date (regardless of post-02/22 entries). In case of a tie (two or more picks of the correct date - or: one person chooses one day earlier and one chooses one day later than the correct date - the player who posted first wins. There is an unofficial summary of who owns what date posted on 03/04/17

2) For guesses entered after 02/22 - you will win a second bonus hat, if and only if, you are the first overall person (of all entries) to guess the exact correct date - therefore, a second hat may or may not be awarded. (these picks are designated with *'s on each end of their username)4//

Additional Contest Rules: One guess per person (though some people have won bonus entries). No trolling or baiting, except by mntlvr23. Rules subject to change, check back often. mntlvr23's interpretation of the rules (current and previously deleted) and his arbitrary decision on the winner is final.

The original Countdown date was based on mntlvr23's guess of 08/12/17 and started at 31 weeks out. When I was proven to be a loser, the date changed to the end of October (which was the end of the earliest month in some member's delivery window). When that date pooped out, the date was pushed out another 3 months to match the duration change in reaching a production level of 5,000 M3's/week (end of 2017 to end of Q1 2018). There is absolutely no way that this date will come and go without a winner.

Peace

JeffreyR | 7 janvier 2017

We should resurrect @georgehawley's post on this. I'll see if I can find it

aprigge | 7 janvier 2017

Tesla will need to work to keep all those Canadian VW TDI folks in the waiting game for the Model 3, now that they will be getting offers from VW to trade in their lying cars for e-Golfs. Yes Elon, that includes me.

kandisatlaw | 7 janvier 2017

We need to have a better idea of expected delivery time because how are we supposed to plan what we are doing? My current car lease ends in March 2017. Maybe I should just lease a Chevy Bolt until the model 3 comes out if I won't get it until 2018. This is very frustrating. What to do?

mntlvr23 | 7 janvier 2017

Hopefully Tesla will share some good information on their updated projection on production, as well as clarification on the prioritization of fulfilling orders during the next reveal which is expected perhaps in March. It makes sense that they have not shared too much information yet - as so much is going on (product under development, production lines being built, unexpected high demand) - they would have not been able to keep everyone happy putting out inaccurate information put out too early.

If my vehicle does not hold out, I will likely purchase a 3-5 year old used car, that I could use for a while - and then sell for about the same cost.

Livein3D | 7 janvier 2017

Unfortunately I wrecked my car this week that I had had hopes of lasting until my Model 3 was delivered. I have another car (1994) that could potentially make it with a lot of upcoming repairs I am estimating will hit. Might get a used Leaf vehicle so that I can pay cash and then save like crazy for the Model 3 down payment. Luckily in my city there is a minimum of 5 more months "free local charging" and potentially longer which would help me save even more. Really want my Model 3 ... already have my "custom plate" in hand so that it won't be gone before I get my car.

JeffreyR | 7 janvier 2017

@LiveIn3D +1 getting a used Leaf is a good, inexpensive idea. It will also get you aware of charging options nearby. Judging from some posts about Leafs here, it will also make the transition to a M3 that much happier, since you will almost triple your range (maybe more).

I have not explored it, but some have posted about services that help you find leases to take over (or have taken over from you) that may be a good option too.

noleaf4me | 8 janvier 2017

I hope you are right -- but my guess is closer to a mid-October date -- how about Oct. 17th.

KP in NPT | 8 janvier 2017

@noleaf that is tue exact date I was hoping, since it's by birthday. Best present ever. ;-)

dyefrog | 8 janvier 2017

Well if that's how we're going to play, mine is October 13th. That's my hope. I noticed though that on the reservation page it specifically states "You'll be invited to configure based on the date of your reservation." This flies in the face of all the speculation about regions, existing owner, options.

KP in NPT | 8 janvier 2017

@duefrog - it is speculated that once we are invited to configure, orders will then be batched according to employee, owner, geographical location, and possibly options chosen depending on how everything goes. But we will have to wait and see.

Expect threads like "I comfigured now when will my car enter production?" flooding the forum. ;-)

KP in NPT | 8 janvier 2017

Sorry typo...on phone.

dyefrog | 8 janvier 2017

Oh, I get it now. Thanks for clearing that up. It makes sense

mntlvr23 | 8 janvier 2017

Are you all guessing the date when the first car is delivered to a forum member, per the OP, or the date when you will get yours?

I guess that I can change the game to include both (but if you are guessing for your own, you should include your region, time/date of reservation and if you are a current owner - and to humor those who think that $ of options play into the priority, you can include the approximate cost of your options.).

mntlvr23 | 8 janvier 2017

I will start -

First forum member will receive on August 12, 2017.

Mine will come Dec 20, 2017 (Reserved East Coast/VA, 10:00 am 03/31, non-owner, $12K of options.

dyefrog | 8 janvier 2017

My guess was for first forum member. I'll be happy if mine comes in by end of the year. I'm on the East Coast reserved five minutes after the portal opened on March 31st

mntlvr23 | 8 janvier 2017

I saw an interesting thing as I was reading the Terms and Conditions of the Motor Vehicle Purchase Agreement:

Under the "Delivery" section - it states that the vehicle is "FOB" (Free On Board), which defines when ownership is transferred. "We are coordinating shipping the vehicle to you using a Third Party Common Carrier, you agree that delivery of the vehicle, including the transfer of title and risk of loss, will occur at the time that your vehicle is loaded onto the common carrier's transport .............."

Interesting and unexpected.

Ross1 | 9 janvier 2017

December 31.
Not sure which year.

'The big question should be: Who is that forum member?
Guesses HERE.

up north | 9 janvier 2017

Mine nov. 15 2017 reserved 3-31-16 early mpls mn non owner 25,000 options.

pete3442 | 9 janvier 2017

That is odd to see the "FOB" addition/change. I wonder if it is related to the tax credit. I believe that the credit amount is based on when the title transfer occurs. So, this may be Tesla's way of controlling exactly when a car counts as "delivered" for the purposes of qualifying. That way, if they ship at the end of the quarter when the credit is to phase out to the next level, the buyer will still qualify for the full amount, even if shipping takes a week and/or it takes a few days for the buyer to make it in to pick up the car.

Where are you seeing this? In my "My Tesla" page, I'm not seeing any Terms and Conditions documents. Am I missing it somewhere else?

pete3442 | 9 janvier 2017

A google search pulled up this: www.tesla.com/order/download-order-agreement?country=US

The "FOB" section appears (in this version) to only apply to deliveries that are to non-Tesla locations (under "Delivery" on page 2). Your pull quote appears to have started mid-sentence. In the version I found, the sentence starts with "If, on your behalf, ..." which seems to limit the applicability of the FOB language to only those cases when they are using a 3rd party delivery company. Could still be an interesting loophole to consider as the quarters close once the phase out begins.

Randkthorn | 9 janvier 2017

I reserved 4/1/2016 online in Ohio. I hope/ expect the first delivery to non-employees etc. to be before Thanksgiving, say Monday 11/20/2017. I have my delivery t-minus set to 4/1/2018 ( 446 days to go ) so I don't make myself too crazy planning on a best case delivery. I haven't decided on options yet.

Goodman.Larry | 9 janvier 2017

I was in line at the Bethesda Md store and had my order in about 10:10am on the 31st. Expect delivery of first 3 to a forum member in late October and delivery of my car in later half of December 2017 or early January. For tax purposes the last couple of days of 2017 would be great. No biggie if it drags a little. More cars built and tested, fewer bugs to get to mine.

robsurvey16 | 9 janvier 2017

I expect first deliveries to non-employees in late October. Lets call it October 21st. I really think Tesla will try to get all (US) customers who ordered on the first day (3/31/2016) their cars before the end of 2017. If we do the math there, we know during the reveal there were around 115,000 reservations and around 200,000 after one day. When you consider roughly half of those are probably international, to fill let's say 65,000 US orders by the end of 2017. That would cover most everyone who reserved day one.

Tesla wants to do 100,000 Model 3 in 2017, but we can all agree that's a pretty lofty goal. 65% of their goal is pretty solid and would fill most if not all day one orders by end of 2017.

KP in NPT | 9 janvier 2017

The first forum members will be me and @Phillygal - because we are owners,ordered pre-reveal, and ladies first. ;-)

SamO | 9 janvier 2017

@KP,

But I woke up early so I could get the first owner reservstion in Santa Monica. And I'm still tired.

KP in NPT | 9 janvier 2017

Ha then you'll definitely win. ;-)

siddhu | 9 janvier 2017

I will get my M3 delivered on 08/09/17 (my prediction)
03/31/16, 9am (#1 booking in WA); non-owner. ~$14.5k of options

Techsla | 9 janvier 2017

Quebec - Expected 2018 March, Reserved on 17/11/16

yaric44 | 9 janvier 2017

Guys you are too optimistic.

First delivery to regular customer: Dec 20.

To me: July 21, 2018. Reserved March 31, 11am East cost Canada, non-owner.

mntlvr23 | 9 janvier 2017

@pete - Thanks, yep that is the same document.

Since the previous section was about "inventory" delivery, I think I read it too fast and thought that the FOB applied to other cases - but I think that you are correct and that the FOB only applies if you want to have the car sent to a different location than a Tesla store.

I do like your take on the potential of hitting "deliveries" in mass in the last days before hitting a tax credit milestone - that would be genius. Pass that idea onto Elon, and they can change the agreement as required during certain timeframes.

sbeggs | 9 janvier 2017

Expecting delivery January, 2018...reserved March 31 on line, just after reveal. Owner, southern California.

Just a guess, but I'm hoping the VIN will be close in number to current Model S. 32xxx.

sbeggs | 9 janvier 2017

Forgot to say I think the first delivery to any customer not an employee might be around Nov 1, 2017.

mntlvr23 | 9 janvier 2017

Closest guess gets a Tesla cap,
must guess prior to Reveal #3

mntlvr23 - 08/12/17
dyefrog - 10/13/17
noleaf4me - 10/17/17
sbeggs - 11/01/17
RandKThorne - 11/20/17
robsurvey16 - 11/21/17
yarik44 - 12/20/17
ross - 12/31/??

Frank99 | 9 janvier 2017

First non-employee forum owner will take possession on Sept 11, about 10:00 AM PDT.
They'll be an existing owner, and will be in the Bay area.

That's the way it has to be for me to get mine by Christmas...and don't you even think about telling me I won't get it then. I'd cry.

I'm fully convinced that I'll get mine on December 22. I reserved in Scottsdale on March 31 just before 11:00 AM MST, and believe I was about #36,000 of the people who registered that day.

akgolf | 9 janvier 2017

First non-employee forum owner - 09/21/17
I'll get mine 12/25/17.
Reserved on line the of the reveal an hour before Elon announced they had 115K reservations.

RP3 | 9 janvier 2017

mntlvr23 - 08/12/17
dyefrog - 10/13/17
noleaf4me - 10/17/17
sbeggs - 11/01/17
RandKThorne - 11/20/17
robsurvey16 - 11/21/17
yarik44 - 12/20/17
ross - 12/31/??
Frank99 - 9/11/17
akgolf - 9/21/17
RP3 - 11/11/17

Octagondd | 9 janvier 2017

put me down for 8/31/17

mntlvr23 | 9 janvier 2017

In Order -
mntlvr23 - 08/12/17
Frank99 - 9/11/17
akgolf - 9/21/17
dyefrog - 10/13/17
noleaf4me - 10/17/17
sbeggs - 11/01/17
RP3 - 11/11/17
Randkthorn - 11/20/17
robsurvey16 - 11/21/17
yarik44 - 12/20/17
ross - 12/31/17

mntlvr23 | 9 janvier 2017

got you Octagondd
I will update daily, if there are loose guesses - but all may feel free to cut and paste - but add your own but putting in order.
(mntlvr23 summaries are official = one guess per player)

Coastal Cruiser. | 9 janvier 2017

AGW, Chevy Bolt, Trump, Clinton, Sarah Connors, Perpetual Motion Machines, Hatchbacks, The Woz, Range Loss in the Rain.

There, I've disqualified myself. Now I have one less reason for sleepless nights. ;>

(I don't get the 'Sarah Connors' ban though. Terminator? BTW I can say 'Sarah Connors' and sound exactly like Arnold. Same with the word "airport".)

mntlvr23 | 9 janvier 2017

Sara Connor was a prolific poster here, until she got into murder trouble. The trial continues next week.

theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/07/sara-connor-looked-messy-and-pale-bali-trial-told

The fact that you actually read the rules re-qualifies you

Coastal Cruiser. | 9 janvier 2017

Oh, okaaaay ... 12/1/17

But if I don't win, when I get my M3 I'm gonna drive by your house and do a burnout.

But since I already have a Tesla cap I may not.

dd.micsol | 10 janvier 2017

October 1st 2017.
Reason-start of new quarter. I suspect 300 people will get theirs first day. A lot people from Cali on this site.
Employees will get theirs in late aug or early sept. No bugs-deliver them.

grizmatt | 10 janvier 2017

First Forum member: 10/1/17
Get mine: 1/15/18 (reserved day 1, Natick Mall, 11am Eastern)

mntlvr23 | 10 janvier 2017

@grizmatt - 10/01/17 is already taken

dsvick | 10 janvier 2017

First non-employee will get theirs on 18 September.
I'll get mine in mid December on the 19th. (waited in line 31 March, in Ohio)

dsvick | 10 janvier 2017

Upon further thought, if I can change mine, the first non-employee will get theirs on September 1st

Bluesday Afternoon | 10 janvier 2017

Next Unveiling on 3/31/17
Order Window opens on 6/30/17
1st non employee (NE) delivery on 9/30/17
1st NE Model 3 using In-N-Out Drive Thru on 9/30/17
1st FSD complaint on 10/1/17
1st Christmas with Model 3 on 12/25/17

Added Christmas to at least get one correct.

Bluesday Afternoon | 10 janvier 2017

Wear Tesla Hat - today

TASANB | 10 janvier 2017

1) 15 AUG 2017: precise middle of Q3. Reading tea leaves here, but I'm guessing EM is determined to meet/exceed expectations on M3 delivery.

2) 01 June 2018: I placed my order on 7 May 2016, I think it was about 10 am EDT, but don't remember for sure. I live in VA. This will be my first Tesla. I'm planning on getting most of the available options (AWD, AP, largest battery, etc.), so lets go with $50K-$55K.

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