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Bloomberg now says... I am retired from estimating production, and so is this thread.

Bloomberg now says... I am retired from estimating production, and so is this thread.

As at 28 May, Bloomberg ceased making Model 3 production estimates based on their model. They will however still report VINs created and submitted. So with that, I endeth this thread.

Historical stuff
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According to Bloomberg’s production model, Tesla reached the 150k milestone on 31 Dec 2018, 200k on 18 Feb 2019 (although Bloomberg later revised its quarterly numbers down - so it probably happened later than that - maybe early March) and 250k on 8 May 2019

That implied a pretty consistent production rate of between 5000 and 6000 cars per week. No other manufacturer is coming remotely close to that volume of production of BEV.

If this rate keeps up, Tesla would make over 300,000 Model 3 cars in 2019.

Ross1 | 16 avril 2018

My guess is that when they get near 5000 pw, at the quarterly result, stock will rise $50

ravisundaramam | 16 avril 2018

@bj | April 15, 2018: There need not even be a revenue stream involved. Internet Explorer was being given away free, still Microsoft not take Firefox seriously.

mos6507 | 16 avril 2018

"They will spend all the money and get no new sales, and hope to stop losing sales."

Huh? So you're saying they transition to EVs and...nobody buys them? You're sort of making your own FUD argument against EVs for them. Seriously, the business logic spouted here doesn't hold up to much scrutiny. It's just an attempt to spin disaster stories for the incumbents in the interest of hoisting Tesla up as the new Apple and Amazon combined.

Silver2K | 16 avril 2018

amazon and google combined

wylkatz | 16 avril 2018

@bj good point. Thanks.

ravisundaramam | 16 avril 2018

Typically a traditional car company has many divisions and departments. Top management sees lots of stories about electric cars and they task some team to do feasibility study. Sometimes these are internal teams who have bias against electrics. Sometimes it is external consultants, the generalists like McKenzie, PWC, Gartner, etc who work off the assumptions and data provided by the traditional companies. They usually lack the vision to see what is possible.

For example Tesla is installing the same 310 mile battery in the 220 mile car, limiting the range by software and spinning a story about reliability and warranty expenses. It is able to sell that concept to current S and X owners. It is installing all the sensors and wiring needed for auto pilot and disabling it in software. If the owners never upgrade, those components are a total loss to the company. But enough would upgrade, may be after a resale, may be when the owners finances improve, Tesla could absorb the loss of the few who never upgrade. Traditional car companies don't think like this. They think like the Chrysler Voyager tail gate design team that saved 25 cents in the door latch or the GM key lock ring design team.

That is the point. They would solve the electric car issues using their ICE car expertise, come up with sub optimal solutions and prove the electric car is not feasible.

At the same time they will create an electric car team, as a hedge, and that team will make all the proper noises for PR. But inside the corporate HQ when people are fighting for funding, electric teams will get step motherly treatment till it is too late to save the company.

djharrington | 16 avril 2018

@ravisundaramam “For example Tesla is installing the same 310 mile battery in the 220 mile car, limiting the range by software” ... I don’t think so.

viper17d | 16 avril 2018

@mos6507

I think the point was that, as of today, ICE automakers need to find ways to keep people from leaving their brand for the attractive Tesla EVs, and that generally, once people buy a Tesla, they won't be won back by a Bolt, a Leaf, or an i-Pace.

The one thing that I think deserves more thought is the idea that there is a huge subset of the population that would feel more 'comfortable' buying an EV from GM with all of its buttons, controls, and non-minimalist design (so long as it had the range, some semblance of a charging infrastructure, and looked at least a little bit stylish). That car doesn't really exist right now.

Further to that point, there is a real first-mover carrot out there for the first ICE automaker to accomplish that. Because while they may or may not take sales away from Tesla, they can (and will) absolutely take sales away from other ICE automakers. That is the true growth opportunity deserving investment by them.

Tesla is a legitimate competitor to them, but in the current environment, there is a subset of the population that won't like Tesla's design language/minimalism. Accordingly, they are still competing with the other ICE automakers to fill that 'need', and competition necessitates investment.

With the Model 3's success, Tesla started a paradigm shift that can't be stopped - showing the world what is possible. Other automakers are seeing this and know that if they stand still, there's only one direction sales will go - the floodgates have been opened.

johnyi | 16 avril 2018

@mos6507, I think you misunderstood the comment. Yes people will buy the new EV's, but only instead of their ICE vehicles. There won't be a net increase in overall sales for the traditional car company. so the comment was the traditional car companies will need to sink all this R&D into EV development, but it won't increase the company's revenue. It will only prevent revenue loss as people migrate from ICE to EV. Read "Dealing with Darwin" for a good summary of the challenges facing any established company that's dealing with disruption.

pjalan | 16 avril 2018

It’s 3070 now.

mos6507 | 16 avril 2018

"people will buy the new EV's, but only instead of their ICE vehicles."

I think this explains why GM is going to build that Buick SUV EV for China. Likewise, Tesla is aiming for China with the Model Y. There is still plenty of growth potential there and due to regulations it's going to shift towards EVs.

You also see this eastward migration in other industries, like movies.

So don't assume that car companies lack avenues for expansion.

jordanrichard | 16 avril 2018

mos6507, What Haggy is saying is that Jaguar for example, has "x" number of customers. With the I-Pace, they hope that their existing customers will buy it, versus jumping ship, to go buy a Tesla. The problem is IF those customers do stay with the brand and get the I-Pace, Jag is still losing a crap load of money because that customer just bought a Jaguar product that has huge R&D/manufacturing costs, versus them buying an existing new Jag that they make huge profits on in not only sales but in service.

So they are between a rock, a hard place and another hard place. BTW and this is something most people tend to forget, but it's not just the dealers that profit from parts and service. Where do you think the dealers get their parts from...................?

Yarblek | 16 avril 2018

Now its back to 2866 per week. Still, more than they made all last year!

johnyi | 16 avril 2018

first VIN reported >20000!

ravisundaramam | 16 avril 2018

@djharrington | April 16, 2018: Tesla increased the range of vehicles affected by a recent hurricane temporarily by a software update.

If the range is not software limited, then how did it do it?

giskard | 16 avril 2018

@ravisundaramam That was for a small number of Model S60 cars where Tesla did put a software limited 75 KWh pack in. They did not do that for very long and have not done that (as far as I know) for any of their other cars. In particular, the Model 3's listed weight is different between the short range and long range version which accounts for the different battery sizes. It just doesn't make sense for them to put relatively expensive and heavy batteries in a car where they won't be used (unless the owner unlocks them at a later date).

ebmcs03 | 16 avril 2018

Bloomberg reports It was over 3000 but now back down to 2800?

bernard.holbrook | 16 avril 2018

Bloomberg shows 2866 today. The bump over 3k was probably due to that double batch of VINs that Tesla registered on the 6th of April. Tesla should be registering some more VINs anytime now...

ravisundaramam | 16 avril 2018

@ giskard | April 16, 2018: You could be right on the battery. But it is putting all the sensors needed for auto pilot in the car right? It says I could add in autopilot in the future. Will cost more, but could be done. Does that involve going back to the service center and rewiring stuff?

maintreqd | 16 avril 2018

@ravisundaramam Right. All Model 3 cars come outfitted with the hardware required for EAP (as well as FSD, once it is made legal per state and federal regulations), according to Tesla's official statements. No rewiring or visit to the service center required. If you pay for either feature later, you're essentially purchasing a software modification for your car to "unlock" those features, and the unlock will likely come to your car "over the air," again requiring no service center visit.

djharrington | 16 avril 2018

+1 giskard and maintreqd

bj | 22 avril 2018

Bump. No new VINs for a little while, presumably due to the temporary shutdown.

M3forMe | 22 avril 2018

only 2616 now. still great number.

bj | 29 juin 2018

That’s the highest ever weekly production number reported by Bloomberg. Next week they are forecasting 4500.

Expect production to go nuts from 1 July. From that date there will be no reason for Tesla to do anything other than make and deliver as many cars as quickly as possible (thank goodness... the business decision making distortions resulting from the US tax credit palava will be gone forever)

Resrch03 | 29 juin 2018

Wait, Tesla's Model 3 Numbers Don't Matter?

https://www.barrons.com/articles/wait-teslas-model-3-numbers-dont-matter...

"... he declares, 'we don't care much' about the numbers."
...
"...the real point is whether 'Tesla is showing good progress' with Model 3, not the exact number."

There will definitely be people over the next week who fixate on five thousand (hoping to cash in on their short positions), assuming they don't quite get there, but obviously Ferragu is correct.

greg | 29 juin 2018

@bj
Agree the sooner the North American palava is over, they move focus to giving folks down-under some Pavlova!

@resrch03
The people fixated on numbers there and around here generally still think Tesla is selling $35K cars that mean Tesla loses money on each one sold. 'Cos you know, they're like Chevy Bolts in that regard.
For which Chevy loses $9K per car and if Chevy can't make money on EV's then who can?

They ignore the actual $ value of the models sold or confirmed, and also the higher GP they return.

All while ignoring the Model S and X sales as well from that picture, thinking that the Model 3 is Tesla's only EV.

Really the sooner the tax credit fog goes away, the sooner the true landscape of Tesla demand will appear.
And the analysts and shorters won't like what they see when it does.

bj | 28 juillet 2018

This thread was languishing on page 85... updating the title and the content of the OP does not bump it to the top.

Only doing this bumps it. Just sayin’.

sbeggs | 28 juillet 2018

@bj
Do the bump!

Resrch03 | 28 juillet 2018

Bubrub (i.e., woo-WOOO). Nice to see considering that tracker had been showing <3k over the past week.

ravisundaramam | 28 juillet 2018

They claim they are using some gov filings and self reported vin numbers spotted in the wild. Such diffuse data and estimation technique can not be this precise.

The model could be a poor one, susceptible to wild swings or being gamed. Or they are using some data source they are not disclosing. Insider info, supplier OEM sourcing info or truck cargo movement info or car transporter movement, something, not disclosed.

Revelate | 28 juillet 2018

Yeah Ravi, one thing glaringly obvious on this forum is that VIN's are all over the map when it comes to delivery timing.

I really don't think it's feasible to track this very well, I'm not even entirely certain Tesla is building them sequentially based on reports here, but short of a lot of VIN's plus build dates I don't know how we could really firm up the data. In theory with those two points we could extrapolate assuming sequential, but meh.

noleaf4me | 29 juillet 2018

seeing more and more of them!

bj | 10 août 2018

Bumpity bump.

carlk | 13 août 2018

Did you update the number in the thread title? Probably should add week of ... in there to make it more clear.

SamO | 13 août 2018

Australia is getting Model 3 for showrooms @bj . . . you'll have to find something else to complain about ;-)

bj | 13 août 2018

@carlk - I bump the thread when I update the title, so if you see it on page 1 or 2 you can tell it’s contemporaneous.

@SamO - I haven’t been invited (so far) which is a little disappointing given I lined up to be in the top 100 in the world, but as per the other thread I am hoping to gatecrash using Greg (NZ’s) invitation. Worth a try. Blag my way in.

Nexxus | 13 août 2018

New estimate now says: 5834/week.

SamO | 13 août 2018

@bj,

That's how I got into the Hyperloop Pod Competition a few years ago.

Audacity, always audacity.

#DriveFree

bj | 23 août 2018

Boomp.

shawncordell | 23 août 2018

Autopilot engaged ;)

bj | 15 octobre 2018

100,000 Model 3s is unquestionably deserving of a bump!

bj | 30 décembre 2018

The next milestone has been reached with Model 3 according to Bloomberg’s tracker - Tesla has now made over 150,000 of them on the final day of 2018. If correct, Tesla has made 50k Model 3s in the 79 days since it crossed the 100k milestone - an average of 670 Model 3s every single day, or 4690 per week.

It’s interesting that production seems to be throttled at around 4500-5000 per week, any bursts above this have been very brief.

If this rate is maintained, Tesla will reach 200k Model 3s on 20 March.

Bighorn | 30 décembre 2018

One employee who tweets production info has been talking about 1300+ a day as of a few weeks ago.

ODWms | 31 décembre 2018

Could that be total cars made (S3X)? That would make sense.

EM34ME | 31 décembre 2018

In early December, I was assigned VIN 155XXX. There was a problem with that car. Two weeks later I was assigned VIN 168XXX which is now in my garage. IF VINs are sequential, that means 13,000 model 3s produced in two weeks mid-December. Not bad!

Bighorn | 31 décembre 2018

VINs are not sequential

EM34ME | 31 décembre 2018

I guess it depends on the definition of "sequential." IN MY OPINION the VINs are generally sequential. It may be possible to find an anomaly out of sequence for various reasons - redo, processing paperwork, etc. But the VINs are certainly not distributed randomly, otherwise we would see VIN 005XXX being delivered in December. No?

CharleyBC | 31 décembre 2018

I did some VIN analysis a few months back. I’d say @Bighorn and @EM34ME are both right. They trend sequentially, yet are not strictly sequential. For example, when AWD began production, those VINs jumped ahead of RWD units being built about the same time.

Bighorn | 31 décembre 2018

I know my car is 13k higher than a car built a month later.

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