So I have been reading these forums for a while being a major Tesla fan, and I have come across a common misunderstanding about the Gen 3 platform.
Many people state that Tesla gets their batteries for about $400/Kwh which maybe true for all I know. With this math we can assume that a 60 KW pack will cost $24,000 correct me if I'm wrong.
If we assume a 20% size reduction in the Gen 3 platform we can also assume the weight would be atleast 20% less, meaning the range would reflect that.
Many on these forums argue that even if the car was able to achieve a 200+ range with a 40 KW pack that their isn't a feasible way Tesla can produce the car under $35K before any applicable credits.
A 40KW pack in todays prices would be $16,000 meaning only $14-19K would be left for the car itself. Many on these forums have stated that hardly any ICE car now days cost that low and the ones that do are considered crap by most standards, with conclusions being made that either Tesla will fail to produce a car at this price or the car will be another Nissan Leaf.
One simple and obvious thing these people miss is how much the cars price is reduced when you take away the ICE, transmission, and who knows what other parts that are necessary in an ICE vehicle.
Based on my very simple calculations a Gen 3 vehicle in 4 years considering the projected price drop of batteries will be of very high quality for $35K, as a matter of fact I would expect it to be on par with BMW's and Audis in that price range luxury wise. Similar to the Model S. Not a KIA with a battery pack ($14-19K car).
A few things to consider:
1. ICE, transmission and all the parts required is a great portion of a vehicles price if not the greatest portion.
2. Battery prices are falling pretty fast.
3. Battery technolgy is improving greatly.
4. Electric vehicles should become easier to manufacturer due to less moving parts.
5. Electric vehicles can extensively use 3D prinitng manufacturing for a wider variety of parts than an ICE could. (I believe 3D prinitng will be a large part of manufacturing in the near future).
5. Mass production decreases price quite heavily.
When you look at it from this perspective, the thought that comes to my mind is How can they NOT produce a car for that price. Even in today battery prices it seems possible. It is starting to look that in a few years a battery pack would be on par in price with all the parts required to make an ICE system.
Any thoughts? Maybe they ney sayers can elaborate on why they consider a Gen 3 for the price unlikely?