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holding pattern for the next Tesla vehicle?

holding pattern for the next Tesla vehicle?

My wife's MB GLE's lease will be up this May. Originally, we planned to purchase a Model X and make us fully electrified on vehicles.

I almost pulled the trigger this week to put down a deposit for the Model X before the pricing hike after the 6% dip. Keyword being "almost".

Given the volatility of the pricing, HW3, the uncertainty of the 250KW supercharging for S and X, we "chickened" out. But if we don't buy another vehicle, we will be down to 1 model S in June. Now we are thinking about extending her GLE's lease for another year... and keep watching and waiting.

If you were in my shoe, would you do the same? or differently?

jordanrichard | 22 mars 2019

The Model S and X will not get 250kw supercharging undoubtedly until they come out with a new pack. I suspect as do others, that they are working on a new battery type and logically that will be able to handle at least 250kw.

Here is what this speculation is based on. The claim is the Roadster, which is physically smaller than the 3 and certainly the S and X, will have a range of 600 miles!!! Where in the body of a Roadster are you going to fit enough 2170 batteries from the Model 3, to nearly double it's range....?

Secondly, on the last earnings call, Elon was asked, "...... are there were plans to put the 2170s in the S and X or do you have newer battery tech". Elon responded that the S and X would not be getting the Model 3's batteries and that they don't talk about future battery technology.............

Things that make you go hmmmmmm.

With all that said, the earliest we presumably will see the Roadster, but specifically it's possible new battery tech is next year.

Mathew98 | 22 mars 2019

My SWAG - They just stacked 2x100 Kwh battery packs together to get the 600 miles range on the Roadster. What's 3 more inches off the floor?

reed_lewis | 22 mars 2019

If you are going to drive long distances all the time, then the 250 kW super charging would be important. If OTOH You are like me and use a super charger for an occasional trip, then the additional time a super charge takes is not very much.

To me, not driving an ICE would far outweigh the additional time for a 145 kW super charger compared to a 250 kW. Plus even with 250 kW, it is only for a short period of time anyways. The difference in total charging time is not half as much.

So I would buy the X (As long as you are happy with it) and drive it like you stole it!

reed_lewis | 22 mars 2019

Who is to say that the current roadster prototypes will go 600 miles right now. No one has seen any proof as to the range of them as they sit right now. So perhaps Tesla is working on making a battery pack that will go 600 miles, but they probably have not done it yet.

Mathew98 | 22 mars 2019

Are we in the habit of accusing Elon of lying?

dsteal | 22 mars 2019

If I were you, I would extend the GLE lease another year. That's just me. I like having one ICE vehicle, especially for long trips through snow. Cold unpredictable weather with lots of uphill makes me nervous and supercharging for 45 minutes can be a pain, especially when I get the "is it done yet" questions from the family. Even if that wasn't a concern, you already have the S. The X to me is basically the same thing but taller. It's a little boring to have the same thing. I actually went through this exact decision process for my wife last year and decided against the X. So that's what I would do if I were in your shoes. When they revise the S/X, my answer will probably change.

TMS | 22 mars 2019

I think it is wise to hold off or lease the vehicle. I would not purchase at this time because of the technological progress acceleration rate affecting Tesla and EV's in general at the moment. I would not purchase or lease a new gasoline automobile at all again ever.

The progress and feature offerings since my S was built new mid 17' is really kind of surprising and I have a growing suspicion it is not in the best interest of the company to support older cars by offering upgrades and enhancements that motivate owners to keep them on the road longer and will likely remain that way.

EVRider | 22 mars 2019

Here’s a possible reason to pull the trigger now: https://electrek.co/2019/03/21/tesla-free-supercharging-end-quarter-ince...

TranzNDance | 22 mars 2019

It has worked well for me not to buy something unless it has what I want and/or need. It doesn't seem like you have that feeling, so if I were you, I would hold off and decrease the chance of buyer's regret.

vitaman | 22 mars 2019

I was in a slightly similar circumstance with a leased Model S. Thinking that a Refresh was imminent, I extended my lease. As the extension wound down, the reality of no new technology stared me in the face. It was down to buying an ICE or renting an ICE (Porsche has a sweet rental program in my area) or buying a used CPO Tesla or buying a new one. I did not consider renting a Tesla because that would limit my flexibility if/when a new Model S appears.
Finally decided to pull the trigger on an Inventory 2018 car that had taken some depreciation to lessen the whack when I trade it in or sell it. It's the 1st time i have ever rebought the same car but I like it enough to feel comfortable with the decision.

mcmack15 | 22 mars 2019

I love the X with the gull doors----they would be great for me when putting the grandchildren into their car seats, especially on rainy days. So if you don't need the super fast charging.............updates are a constant with all cars and if we waited for the latest and greatest all the time we would never buy anything.

mcmack15 | 22 mars 2019

PS to the above----I have a S. I do not have the X---wish I did though.

ktslab | 23 mars 2019

The biggest feature, might not even be a feature, is that I was hoping to get something with a longer range than my current S.

We live in New England and wife commutes from Boston to NY or Philly at least once a month. My drive? 24 miles per day in and out, I'm good with my S lol.

Thanks, guys. We probably going to extend her lease for another year in hopes of a large battery S or X becomes available.

Let me tell you, there is still a strong voice telling me "do it, buy it now".

jordanrichard | 23 mars 2019

Reed_lewis, which car did Tesla come out with that didn’t have the range quoted when it was revealed? Now, it is their quoted timeframe that is the question. If they do come out with the Roadster in 2020 as said, I am betting it will be towards the end of 2020.

jjgunn | 23 mars 2019

I can charge from 25% to 75% in 25-30 minutes at the SuperCharger.

That's 1/2 the pack on a 100 kW.

Do you really need the charging speed to be 15-20 minutes?? If so, buy a Model 3

Ohmster | 23 mars 2019

Charge to whatever I need in zero time (overnight). At 80 miles a day commute, works beautifully for me.

On long trips (mostly Palm Springs), so many SuperChargers to choose from....

Range anxiety attributable to my 'lowly' 75 in 18months? Zilch.

'17 S75 & X75D: (Uncorked EAP FSD AP2.5 Bio 50.6)*2. Grin on!

bill | 25 mars 2019

@Mathew98 | March 22, 2019
Are we in the habit of accusing Elon of lying?

Elon does not lie, it just has not happened yet. :)