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FSD further away than Tesla speculates

FSD further away than Tesla speculates

Based on my experience with "auto pilot" and the incremental updates Tesla has been pushing out, they still have a VERY LONG way to go before rolling out the full fledged version that will function as consumers would expect and instill driver confidence. Unless Telsa rolls out additional features that work better than the Beta versions have, FSD at the current price tag of $7,000 will be a hard sell.

I use "auto pilot" just about every time I'm behind the wheel, and this includes both highway and city use. On US highways it works very good over 90% of the time. The less than 10% of the time it doesn't, I cannot figure out why auto-pilot reacts strangely (e.g. other vehicles on the highway, not really close but my car suddenly slows down). If the surroundings are not "perfect" and my wife is in the car, I won't use Auto-pilot. The less than 10% of the time it reacts strangely freaks her out.

One example of a recent update that maybe wasn't yet ready for "prime time" is the Smart Summon enhancement. It worked perfectly the first time I tried it (even stopped for a pedestrian! and notified me via the app) but.... every time afterwards it's been an embarrassment. Sure, it's a Beta version, but, releasing such a feature in Beta, although it doesn't need to be close to perfect, it should function better than it does. I'll wait until Release notes state it's been improved before using it again (it's that far from being useful and reliable).

I'm a Tesla fan, a Tesla evangelist, an early adopter and enjoy the benefits of auto-pilot. It's a convenience and safety feature that removes a few layers of driving stress.

However...
- Given how auto-pilot works today (fairly good but not stellar)
- How the strange anomalies have not been ironed out
- How new Beta features function below par, and
- The long gap between current state and FSD.....
I cannot see Tesla releasing a "production" version of FSD anytime in the intermediate future that consumers will have confidence in enough to pay several thousands of dollars for.

FSD is probably more complicated and more challenging than originally expected, but I'm confident the Tesla team will get there. IMHO, it'll take a lot longer than they keep anticipating.

TabascoGuy | 11 novembre 2019

I guess some people just don't understand exactly what "Beta" means.

andy.connor.e | 11 novembre 2019

The performance of Autopilot on Tesla vehicles is not a representation of how much progress is being made with the system. Not every improvement they made is ready to be deployed to their entire fleet, in addition we do not know the relationship between progress and legislation for more FSD features. FSD is not out. Its being released in incremental improvements with new features or improvements on the existing features.

Earl and Nagin ... | 11 novembre 2019

Remember folks: You are part of the machine learning. Every time the car suddenly brakes for no apparent reason, the software may be studying your reactions to some stimulus and automatically gauging your response.
Also, most likely, every time you approach a stop light or stop sign, the autopilot has probably detected it as well and, based on you stopping, collected statistics on how reliable its recognition was and how well it's algorithms would have handled the situation.
Its hard for us to actually know how well Tesla's FSD progress is going.

SamO | 11 novembre 2019

Omg. Another useless lay-opinion of machine learning.

You just admitted you don’t understand how this works and don’t even know it.

“ Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt”

andy.connor.e | 11 novembre 2019

Not really dude, better to ask questions about something so that a community of knowledgeable people can give you education for free.

nukequazar | 11 novembre 2019

I’m doubtful that our cars, with the sensors and mapping we have, will ever be capable of what a reasonable person would consider “full self driving.” Cars that are truly approaching autonomy have LIDAR and 3DHD maps. But a girl can dream!

andy.connor.e | 11 novembre 2019

I wouldnt be surprised if the cars require another hardware upgrade.

TabascoGuy | 11 novembre 2019

Feature complete by the end of the year. Let's wait till it's actually released before we pass judgement.

TeslaTap.com | 11 novembre 2019

Not at all worried about FSD. Expect to see it before the end of next year in full operation, although there will be some restrictions depending on the regulations. It will require HW3, which few owners have yet. I expect there will be some geofencing and other limitations similar to other test vehicles with LIDAR.

Not sure there is a market for cheap cars retrofitted with $100K of LIDAR and other expensive equipment that mainly only works in clear weather and looks ugly as sin. 3DHD maps also look to be a poor approach too, but maybe someone can get it to work. I'd rather have a system that can deal with road maintenance, closures, and other abnormal issues. A system based on 3DHD will likely cause the car to crash in such situations.

SamO | 11 novembre 2019

@andy,

No question was asked. Just an uneducated “opinion” which is worth zero.

EVRider | 11 novembre 2019

I agree that full self driving is a ways off, but the FSD option adds a lot of functionality now for people with basic AP, so some people will feel it’s worth the price. For people who already have EAP, the FSD option today only gets you the HW3 upgrade, but that should change soon.

I’m not that excited about full self driving, but I really like the AP features we have now, even though they’re not 100% reliable, and looking forward to additional AP features coming later.

nukequazar | 11 novembre 2019

@EVRider, EAP to FSD also adds Smart Summon. Is Auto Nav included in EAP or only FSD?

andy.connor.e | 11 novembre 2019

Full Self-Driving Capability:

-Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
-Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
-Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
-Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.

Coming later this year:

-Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
-Automatic driving on city streets.

EVRider | 12 novembre 2019

@nuke: Cars with EAP get Smart Summon. Automatic Navigation, assuming you mean the new feature that automatically starts navigation based on your calendar, has nothing to do with Autopilot, so anyone should be able to use that.

andy.connor.e | 12 novembre 2019

All the features i listed are part of the FSD package you purchase. All the FSD features can be seen when you go to order a Model 3, under section #4: Autopilot

nukequazar | 12 novembre 2019

@andy, everything you list as current except for Smart Summon is also included in EAP. I know because I had it. That’s what we were talking about.

andy.connor.e | 12 novembre 2019

Gotcha!

carlk | 12 novembre 2019

Summon is used under probably the most challenging environment of them all. There is not always clear lane lines and traffic rules. Many people don't follow them in the parking lot anyway. A lot of exchange through "body language" is needed to drive under that situation. I believe Tesla is releasing it most for the purpose of training the NN for that. It will improve by time. What has learned could be applied too street driving too.

Just a side note conventional Lidar+HD mapping approach will never be able to master "body language" and will never achieve the general autonomy.

nukequazar | 12 novembre 2019

@Carlk, HD mapping with LiDAR, RADAR, and cameras actually is what autonomous vehicles are using now. An HD map is much better than a Google map, and LiDAR is much better than RADAR. They are both just too expensive for for the Tesla business model for now. I believe that's why Elon bags on them. It's the only thing that makes sense because they're better. HD map+LiDAR+RADAR+cameras is clearly superior to Google map+RADAR+sonar+cameras in the perception task. LiDAR can define an object and its location precisely. All the other sensors have to be synthesized by AI to make guesses.

TeslaTap.com | 12 novembre 2019

@nuke - Agreed - super expensive and not practical in a consumer vehicle. Only prototypes are using those systems today. LIDAR is really only for clear weather, and the suitability for vehicle use in all temperatures and weather conditions is unknown. Prototypes seem to be mostly used in moderate weather areas.

So perhaps LIDAR/HD maps are superior today in some systems and environments, but not really practical. Good for collecting data and testing out ideas. Maybe in 5 years or so the costs will come down, but I expect vision systems to do as well at a fraction of the cost and complexity, and they can handle far more weather conditions today.

Concepts being considered are solid-state LIDARs (maybe 4 per car) with tiny wipers on each one. The hardware requirements are far higher to process the massive amount of LIDAR data. So far prototypes are using a trunk full of electronics. The power drain is also significant, which would reduce the range on an EV.

carlk | 12 novembre 2019

" cameras actually is what autonomous vehicles are using now. "

No one except Tesla is going the vision+ deep learning NN way. You can put a million cameras in a Lidar/HD mapping car it still can not do vision deep learning. Only Tesla that has capability to collect the huge amount of data needed for that.

carlk | 12 novembre 2019

TT It's one thing if the only issue is Lidar is too expensive but it has becoming more clear now Lidar+HD map can never even get you there. The "detection of other drivers' or pedestrians' intentions" which we take for granted is the toughest one and probably the last missing link. Only vision + deep learning is able to solve it (with huge amount of learning data).

nukequazar | 12 novembre 2019

I’m not sure what the confusion is here other than the usual bias. The autonomous cars with HD+LIDAR also have radar and cameras. The point is, right now and for the foreseeable future, that’s what’s needed for autonomous driving. What we have is not close to autonomy. “Full self driving” is being redefined as something much less than full self driving (autonomous driving) but that doesn’t change reality.

Apparently the autonomous Uber car that killed the bicyclist was the fault of the choice of when the human driver should take control, and in that case the human was distracted by a data screen. The LIDAR system apparently correctly perceived the bicyclist in time to stop but the system did not issue an emergency stop command to the car.

carlk | 12 novembre 2019

The confusion people like you have is just adding cameras to cars is not the same as having vision+ deep learning NN. Tesla is the only company that does the later and the only company that is able to because of the huge amount of data required. Regardless if it's amera or Lidar a few hundreds or even a few thousands test cars are far from enough to solve self driving deep learning problem.

SamO | 12 novembre 2019

What an ignoramous. Lidar is NOT needed and not sufficient for FSD.

Go read a book ffs.

nukequazar | 12 novembre 2019

@SamO, once again, the only cars actually driving autonomously today have LIDAR and HD maps. NN is fantastic. Amazing. But it won't beat LIDAR at detecting the location of a kid running into the street today. Or this year. Or next year when our cars are supposed to be Robotaxis.

Once a certain threshold percentage of cars on the road have sensors and all talk to each other, that will be great also. I'm just talking about today, and the promises made to us about our cars now.

EVRider | 12 novembre 2019

@nuke: I feel compelled to correct you again. Smart Summon IS included in EAP. This has been confirmed by many owners in the forum. Search and see for yourself.

Dr. Bob Reinke | 12 novembre 2019

The recent problem I have had with using Autopilot has been with the shadow under over-pass. The camera seems to see the finely defined shadow as a solid and slams on the brakes causing near accidents with the idiots tail-gating me. happened 3 times on my last trip on I-90 to NY.. Needs more work before turning loose to drive the Model S by it self ..

nukequazar | 12 novembre 2019

@EVRider, hmmm, there have definitely been people on here saying they have EAP but not Smart Summon. Could it depend on what version of S they have?

EVRider | 13 novembre 2019

@nuke: Smart Summon might not be available in all areas, but any model capable of EAP should have it. I have FSD in both cars so I can’t verify this myself, but other owners have done so. For example, see this thread, which you contributed to: https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/enhancedsmart-summon-part-fsd-or-eap

Maybe someone else with EAP can comment.

Lchamp | 21 novembre 2019

I'm 78 and don't expect to see full self driving in my lifetime. Nevertheless, I just bought a Model 3 with FSD...just in case...