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Speculation time....July Surprise

Speculation time....July Surprise

So Trev over at M3OC claims to have some dirt...This actually sounds pretty plausible to me.

https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/july-surprise.3983/

"My source, who's been very reliable in the past, has told me to "hold onto your hats" as things are about to start happening very soon and and fast.

First, the source has indeed confirmed that the initial Model 3 configurator choices are colour and wheels. No details on what those consist of but we can assume the 5 colours we've seen so far and the 2-3 wheel styles. Those choices are slated to be in place for about "3 months" while production is ramped up.

Secondly, the interior colour is to be black only during the initial phase. The wood trim found on the dash is real wood but species is unknown. The alcantara liner in the door panels is indeed making it to production. Was told the interior is very good, people are going to be happy with it. Think: fixing Model S deficiencies like door pockets, cup holder placements, arm rests, storage etc...

The best bit: July is going to surprise a lot of people and especially Wall Street, as the production line is just about ready and will start production ASAP so that several THOUSAND Model 3s are produced and stockpiled for deliveries at the end of July. This confirms what the source relayed to me back in February, namely keeping configs simple so they could make preconfigured cars instead of relying on custom configs. Later on when production ramps up in the 4th quarter more options could be added to the mix.

We may still get the token 5-6 on stage hand overs at the delivery event ceremony but Tesla is looking to really show the naysayers up this time. That's it for now"

Coastal Cruiser. | 18 juin 2017

Thanks for the report.

"... namely keeping configs simple so they could make preconfigured cars instead of relying on custom configs. Later on when production ramps up in the 4th quarter more options could be added to the mix."

That makes good sense and fully explains the limited options at the get-go.

"...but Tesla is looking to really show the naysayers up this time."

That I hope is not true.

mntlvr23 | 18 juin 2017

getting giddy

ReD eXiLe ms us | 18 juin 2017

So the MATRiX of offerings will probably be in the area of 15-18 possible configurations, I think...

___ 1 Interior
___ 5 Exteriors (or 6)
___ 3 Wheel Options
___ 1 Roof
___ 1 Battery Pack

ReD eXiLe ms us | 18 juin 2017

Coastal_Cruiser wrote, "That I hope is not true."

Hmmm...? Why? The worst of Naysayers have said the following:

___ 1) Tesla will NEVER release the Model ☰ or any other 'affordable' car because they are a niche, boutique manufacturer of 'Toys for the RICH!'

___ 2) Tesla will DEFINITELY be late with Model ☰ and no one, anywhere, should expect to get one before 2019, and probably 2020!

___ 3) Tesla has NO CHANCE of Delivering Model ☰ in quantities beyond a 'mere handful' during 2017 and will miss their forecasts by anywhere from 75% to 99%!

___4) Tesla is nothing more than a Ponzi scheme, a scam, and they have no viable market -- the 'bubble' is sure to burst 'any day now' and then you'll all see how big fools you were to believe a single word that came out of Elon Musk's lying mouth -- there will be nothing to save him this time!

___ 5) I can't wait for Tesla to be a complete BOMB, the Model ☰ is the worst possible idea known to mankind, NO ONE IS GOING TO BUY IT, there is NOTHING wrong with gasoline powered cars, nothing is better or ever will be -- no one is gonna 'save the planet' by buying luxury cars -- GLOBAL WARMING IS A HOAX!!!

To me, when Tesla proves all of those prognostications entirely incorrect, that will be a GOOD thing! Why would it not be? Personally, I would rather hope those guys would all [SIERRA TANGO FOXTROT UNIFORM] -- it isn't even necessary for them to recant their prior rants or even admit defeat.

TheChad | 18 juin 2017

When you go to a "normal" dealership they already have a selection of colors and options for you to choose from. Why should the mass produced 3 be different? Pope Le are use to Tessa's being completely customizable but that is easy when you're making so few cars. As they move into the mass production realm of business why wouldn't they operate with producing a bunch of predetermined configurations and letting poeple choose what is available or waiting X (no pun intended) number of months for the custom they want. I did this with my last car, BMW. The lot, not any other dealership in my area, has the color and options that I exactly wanted. I had to make the choice to either get a car with more/less options or wait the 5 months for my car to be built and shipped to me. I chose the latter option and am happy I did.
If Tesla is truly producing a lot of cars ready for deleivey in July/August I am encouraged by their foresight. Yes Tessa is a different kind of company. That is why we all love them. However, some old practices of manufacturers are tried and true.

sohilrai | 18 juin 2017

Thanks for the info. Definitely going to wait for more options!

ReD eXiLe ms us | 18 juin 2017

TheChad: There is a slight difference. Those 'independent franchised dealerships' tend to order what they want to sell, as opposed to what people want to buy. Having a lot with 'Acres and Acres of CARS!' all baking in the sun for months on end, hoping someone will come by to buy one of them some day, is very inefficient when it comes to inventory. The turnaround time is too low.

I am convinced that the main reason why you see parking lots and lanes of freeways filled with cars that are black, white, gray/grey, and silver is not because people particularly like those 'colors'... It is because those are what the guys a 'independent franchised dealerships' choose to stock on their lots. They aren't necessarily 'popular' colors, so much as they are readily available to impatient buyers.

I believe that Tesla intends to handle it a different way. Instead of leaving cars on open lots at several places around the country, they will build what they expect, based upon prior experience, will be popular combinations of Model ☰ ahead of time to 'warehouse'. When someone configures a car the way they expect on their website, they'll be able to ship that vehicle immediately if it matches their pre-built inventory. And, if trends from online configurations tend to favor one design over another, Tesla can increase their Production of that setup to be available for future orders. Combinations that end up being significantly below 10% take rate may be eliminated as options, or delayed in build time, as a result.

In this way, Tesla will be able to scale with their 'build to order' process in a manner that directly reflects what Customers are telling them they want to see more of -- without leaving hundreds of cars baking in the sun on lots strewn across the nation.

Jcastillo18 | 18 juin 2017

I probably will opt for less options. My check list is over 200 miles charge, autopilot, blue as the exterior, fwd, not really sure if AWD is worth the price . The only thing I wanted that is not there is bigger battery

KP in NPT | 18 juin 2017

I'm betting as soon as they get through the backlog there will be inventory cars on the lot available for immediate purchase. They have started doing that with the S/X on a small scale.

Brian | 18 juin 2017

Fwd? I'm afraid you may be a little disappointed.

KP in NPT | 18 juin 2017

Oh jeez here we go.

Not everyone needs AWD. Fwd Teslas drive great and there is no reason to think the Model 3 will be any different.

Coastal Cruiser. | 18 juin 2017

"fwd?"

Ooooh, I hate acronyms. I think jcastillo was referring to AWD (all wheel drive). I think I also saw KP make a reference to FWD a few days ago with regard to the M3 as well. I am guessing they mean Front Wheel Drive, which I guess is another way of alluding to All Wheel Drive.

I don't think either of them were referring to Falcon Wing Doors. ;>

ReD eXiLe ms us | 18 juin 2017

For those who are keeping score...

___ RWD -- Rear Wheel Drive
___ AWD -- All Wheel Drive
___ LHD -- Left Hand Drive
___ RHD -- Right Hand Drive
___ FWD -- Falcon Wing Doors (reserved for Model X, Model ☰ Coupe, and Model Y)

I hope this helps!

Elizabets07 | 18 juin 2017

KP: thanks for passing this on! Whenever I read a post that sheds light on what options will be available first, I think, "oh yes, that's exactly what I want!" I admire all the mature posters and their ability to delay gratification.

KP in NPT | 18 juin 2017

Sorry i was reading/typing in the car. (As a passenger.) :-) the Model 3 will be RWD (misread that) and it will drive great. Anyone wondering can test drive a model S which can be demoed in either mode so you can feel the difference.

Robert22 | 18 juin 2017

AWD shoud also give you a *few* more miles.

Bluesday Afternoon | 18 juin 2017

Don't forget

_____SOON -- So Oh Okay Noitcanhappeninthefuturesopatienceyoumusthave

noleaf4me | 18 juin 2017

Thanks for the info. I was hoping they could have more a "standard" and a "premium" that has several popular options and the larger battery pack (much like the Bolt) -- then you choose you wheels and color -- be done.

mntlvr23 | 18 juin 2017

July Surprise - M3 batteries (and new MS & MX) can supercharge 25% faster than previous batteries ????????

AlMc | 18 juin 2017

I have been around Tesla for too long so I admit to having a healthy skepticism on rumors about 'meeting/beating' timelines for initial production and ramping speeds.

With that caveat in place: A July surprise for me is the production and delivery of 1,000 model 3s.

I hope 'Trev's' source is correct and I will happily admit my skepticism was misplaced IF he is correct. BUT, I just don't see the 'July surprise' happening.

gar1116 | 18 juin 2017

I just finished Ian M Banks novel 'Consider Phlebas'. The spaceship 'Clear Air Turbulence' is captained by whomever wears the control ring. Do you think this is what Mr. Musk is talking about with spaceship controls? A ring instead of a key or fob? That would be cool.

Coastal Cruiser. | 18 juin 2017

"One ring to control them all."

-guess who?

ReD eXiLe ms us | 18 juin 2017

AlMc: That is precisely what I have seen coming since Tesla announced they would be accelerating their Production schedule.

fritter63 | 18 juin 2017

"Black interior option" only is a deal breaker for us. It gets d*mned hot here in the summers. Guess we'll be waiting for a bit...

JayInJapan | 18 juin 2017

Black interior is fine in the summer. We can pre-cool the car with the Tesla app.

msafalow | 19 juin 2017

Sorry if already mentioned but what kind of roof will the first model 3s have?

KP in NPT | 19 juin 2017

Battery production has started. That helps. :)

https://electrek.co/2017/06/19/tesla-model-3-battery-cell-production/

gar1116 | 19 juin 2017

@Coastal_Cruiser - No Guess Who sang Share the Land and No Sugar Tonight.
I think you are thinking of Tolkien. (Haha)

PhillyGal | 19 juin 2017

Oh boy this is getting so exciting!

Next we get to have internal battles over "what if I'm offered the ability to get a car really soon with few options, vs. x months later with what I want?"

12Brent | 19 juin 2017

In some respects I'm almost glad that I'm waiting for AWD because I assume that I'll get exactly the build I want. I don't want to compromise on my list of desired options just to get an earlier delivery.

Fredbob711 | 19 juin 2017

8@ReD eXiLe ms us

What you say about dealers ordering the cars they want to sell is very true. My dad worked for a Ford dealership a while ago and was in charge of new car ordering. He tried to order what he knew would sell, but often ran into roadblocks with the dealership GM.
One example he gave involved the F-150. My dad on occasion would sneak in an order for a yellow F-150, which his GM hated. Not the truck mind you (it was a truck-heavy dealership), the color is what he hated. But every time my dad got one of those yellow F-150's on the lot, it was sold within a week. But he could never convince his boss to let him keep them on the lot. He had to settle for the occasional one he could sneak in the new car order, or if he happened to find a gently used one at auction.

carlk | 19 juin 2017

AlMc
"I have been around Tesla for too long so I admit to having a healthy skepticism on rumors about 'meeting/beating' timelines for initial production and ramping speeds."

The company was small and new but it can learn and to grow. It's smart enough to learn fast. Don't forget the goal is to become the most efficient manufacturing company we've ever seen. This is just the first small step. I have the confidence they will be able to pull this one off.

Rutrow | 19 juin 2017

The limited options strategy has most likely been adopted to allow Tesla to manipulate the delivery of the 200,000th car on the first day of the new quarter. If they can stack up inventory without having to do custom configurations, they can have a lot more units eligible for the maximum tax credits.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 19 juin 2017

Rutrow: That is one way to look at it, I suppose. I prefer to think Tesla will be building cars in a manner that emulates Honda's trim levels for cars. The old DX, LX, EX principle. Certain colors would only come with particular trim levels. Certain equipment would only be available on a minimum trim level. Certain components were standard across all cars. It makes sales a lot more streamlined and efficient.

topher | 19 juin 2017

"they will build what they expect, based upon prior experience, will be popular combinations of Model ☰ ahead of time to 'warehouse'. When someone configures a car the way they expect on their website, they'll be able to ship that vehicle immediately if it matches their pre-built inventory."

Why would they do that when they can instead just open up the configurator sooner? Then they know exactly what people want BEFORE they start building, and can optimize the build order.

"I'm betting as soon as they get through the backlog there will be inventory cars on the lot available for immediate purchase."

Sure, but that could well be YEARS. Quickly increasing the production much past 500k would involve a whole new line, so production will probably stall as incremental improvements are made (and a new line builds the Model Y instead). I don't see demand stalling.

Thank you kindly.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 19 juin 2017

topher: I certainly would prefer that Tesla simply stay with the build to order principle throughout. I have always said it was a system that should be able to scale to any market quantity at volume. I was merely entertaining the notions of those who believe it is somehow 'impossible' to do that smoothly, and insist that Tesla is already preparing to build in bulk, and ship from warehoused inventory.

topher | 19 juin 2017

"ship from warehoused inventory."

Forget building to order (for now), what could they do with 600,000 orders to streamline the process? Why would any of those cars ever need to be warehoused? I see exactly zero reason to warehouse stock until they complete the backlog, except for external factors like transportation and tax credits. They could make 1,000 White, RWD, 75kWh, glass roofed, upgraded audio, cars all at once, and have takers for all of them. The question is how far up the reservation list could they go without annoying early reservers.

Thank you kindly.

Coastal Cruiser. | 19 juin 2017

I would like to nominate Topher for President of production.

dsvick | 19 juin 2017

@Rutrow

Stockpiling cars now for fast delivery does them no good if it's before the 200,000th car. It is after that car is sold that they would want to maximize deliveries and they certainly are not going to hold cars they're building now for several months until after they sell the 200,000th one.

dyefrog | 19 juin 2017

But they could hold cars they are building after the 199,999th car is delivered until the first of next quarter.

El Mirio | 19 juin 2017

@Dsvick, to maximize tax refund what Tesla needs to do (and i believe Elon said they intend to) is to deliver the 200k US-Car on the first day of a new quarter.

Hence they would not start stockpiling NOW, put potentially they might be stockpiling deliveries a month or two prior of hitting that 200k threshold (US cars only).

Quote
- The full amount of the EV qualifying tax credit is in place DURING the entire calendar quarter in which 200,000
EVs are sold by a manufacturer, AND through the subsequent quarter.

- Then the tax credit amount is reduced by 50% ($3,750 for Tesla models) for the next 2 quarters.

- The credit is reduced again to 25% ($1,875 for Tesla models) of the original amount for the subsequent 2
quarters.

- At that point the credit expires completely.
unquote

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/01/20/predicting-us-federal-ev-tax-credit...

KP in NPT | 19 juin 2017

Tesla just crossed 100k cars sold in the IS, in may or June, FYI.

http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-sales-us/

KP in NPT | 19 juin 2017

IS = US

gatorj31 | 19 juin 2017

I think a big portion of us day 1or 2 reservers will end up getting the full credit ...and maybe all of us. Even if Tesla hits 200k cars in Q4 we still have until March 31st to take delivery and get the full credit. I'm hopeful though that they will stockpile or ship to non-US reserve holders in late Q4 which means the full credit will go through June 30th 2018.

El Mirio | 19 juin 2017

@gatorj31, yep i think a lot of us will see the tax credit, see this twitter conversation elon had.

https://twitter D O T com/elonmusk/status/716709914911989760?lang=en

dsvick | 19 juin 2017

@dyefrog - "But they could hold cars they are building after the 199,999th car is delivered until the first of next quarter."

Correct, but they are not (by all estimates) anywhere near that yet.

@El Mirio
I'm aware of how the credit works and how they could maximize the number of people that get it. I'm just saying that, right now, they are not close to the 200,000th car so it does them no good to start stockpiling cars for that purpose because they would have to hold them for anywhere from 3 to 6 months.

LostInTx | 19 juin 2017

As it relates to the $7500 tax credit, first morning reservation holders have to weigh accepting pre-configured cars with a guaranteed $7500 credit against waiting for preferred options to become available at the risk of losing at least part of that tax credit.

Therein lies my dilemma. If anyone else falls in this same category, I'll be interest to know which path you'll elect to take.

bricha55 | 19 juin 2017

here is a different view that hasn't been talked about yet. What if (and this is probably a big what if) Tesla is already producing Model 3, and they don't want to release any this month for fear that others would start changing their expectations and want the 3 sooner than they would be able to get them?

In that scenario it makes sense to me that they would start stock piling them before the official release.

gatorj31 | 19 juin 2017

@dsvick 100k model s sold through may, but what about X? I've seen guesstimates that they will be real close to 200k by December depending on how many model 3s they produce

gatorj31 | 19 juin 2017

@readyform3 - that's the big question that will probably need to be answered by config day. Once you add the cost of whatever option it is you'll have to wait for AND the lost tax credit of possibly $3,750 then that will be the real cost of that option. If AWD is $5k and you lose the $3,750 in credit that's one expensive AWD all the sudden. But this is all a big what if. It's possible you get AWD and the full credit.... just depends on production ramp success and your spot in line.

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